Over/Under Poll -- Ian Kinsler OPS
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 9, 2012 3:02 PM CST
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PrintWith the ZiPS projections coming out for the Rangers yesterday, we are doing a series of polls asking folks to pick whether they think various players will go over or under the OPS that ZiPS projects.
ZiPS projects Ian Kinsler to have an OPS of 834 in 2012.
Do you think it will be over or under that figure? Cast your vote...
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Over, rather handily
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
Take what he did last year, don't change the walk rate or ISO and add .030 to average and you will have his ///
.285/.385/.507
It is preordained
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
This is 100% accurate
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Feb 9, 2012 3:11 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
His BABIP was .243 last season
His average almost has to go up.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
Over it is then.
Football can go to hell. The Rangers aren't ready for football season and neither am I.
You mean like in 2010
when his average was .286 and he walked at a nearly identical rate as 2011?
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
while dealing
with an ankle injury.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
And why is that?
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Feb 9, 2012 4:37 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
x
"...out of the shadows of unprecedented success, the sun shines down upon this team waiting to thrill anew." - ghostofErikThompson
Heh
Nice
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Feb 9, 2012 3:08 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Over, .870
This will be a blowout
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Feb 9, 2012 3:08 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Over. Comfortably.
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Over
I think Zips is under on his OBP just a bit.
Some see a glass half empty, some a glass half full. I see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be. - George Carlin
Dunno
Looking at the career picture doesn’t give his recent ability to walk at an elite level enough
credit
Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck
btho Iowa State
Over without a doubt
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Ovah.
We’re not about sending messages. We’re about winning ballgames.-Wash, 04/03/11
Hell to the fucking no. -Wash, 10/07/11
going w/ the over
NO This is why i dont come here so much anymore. it has become a destination for certain types which i am not. Love the rangers, not this -- Mark from OC on Arrested Development
interesting that there are so many overs
I said under.
Kinsler has only had an OPS of over .834 once in his career. That was in 2008. Last year was closer at .832, but generally his career numbers don’t say that it is likely to be over.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Why is there so much "WAY over, easily?"
I mean, that’s actually better than what he did last year. The only season that’s been significantly better was a different offensive environment.
His BABIP can — should — go up, but his ISO could (I would argue should) go down, and he’s a decent candidate to get hurt.
Wouldn’t be shocked at all by going over, he’s got one sexy ceiling as a player. But comfortably expecting way over baffles me a bit.
I like it, though. :D
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
OPTIMISM!
I will balance it out by going way under on Cruz
by dolphinpuncher on Feb 9, 2012 5:52 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Optimism is a fine reason.
I enjoy a good over-the-top excitement prediction now and then.
I’m, of course, asking people who are not simply basking in the glow of happy.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
Well for me its the health factor
Last year he was healthy full time and yet was still admittedly bothered by the ankle injury he suffered in spring 2010.
He now says hes fully healthy and so I think we will see his full potential this year, plus hes playing to hopefully get the Rangers to give him a big extension.
I dont think he will get much MVP love but I think his numbers will be MVP caliber in 2012
Entirely possible.
Your scenario is entirely possible to me. I wouldn’t even be surprised if God told me it was the most likely.
I just can’t really see being confident in it happening with room to spare.
I like your reality, though.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
An .834 isn't exactly setting that bar that high for Kinsler
He’s surpassed it twice and wasn’t too far away a third time in his career. He would have surpassed it in 2010 too if it wasn’t for a year long nagging injury to his ankle that sapped so much of his power. Health is going to still be an issue for him, but I don’t think there’s that good of a chance that it will be an injury that affects him when he is on the field like the fluke injuries in the past.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
He's only surpassed it once based on the numbers I'm looking at
and that was 2008 with an .892 OPS. I consider that season more of an outlier as his other seasons are all pretty similar
’06: .801
’07: .796
’08: .892
’09: .814
’10: .794
’11: .832
His ‘08 season lifts up his career avg OPS to .824. He has been consistent and I could see him go over, but I would call going over .834, especially way over, more on the optimistic side. I’m not saying he can’t do it, or won’t do it, I just think it’s pretty optimistic.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
My bad, it was just once, don't know why I looked at those numbers and thought twice
but still, .832 is basically a push. Also, 2008 might be an outlier, but combined with the injury to prevent that from regressing a bit down (if he wasn’t that good actually) and the higher level of offense in the league, its not that extreme.
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
Finally...and surprisingly...one person in LSB who gets it.
He’s done it once in his life and he turns 30 in June.
Under by just a little.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
Health is the biggest factor.
His ISO should not really go down much. Maybe a tad, but he has been a .200 ISO player 3 of the last 4 years (I’m rounding up his .199 in 2008). Kinsler’s injury in 2010 affected his power and looks like an aberration. I would feel comfortable putting him at a .215 ISO next year.
His BABIP should improve. It’d be hard for it not to, frankly. All of this depends on his health. A healthy Kinsler should smash ZIPS projection, but he hasn’t had a healthy season yet (last year was close – he wasn’t 100%).
I’m optimistically predicting a healthy season. And I think due to that health, he’ll have both power and a good OBP (not to mention his speed and defense).
This is a completely understandable case for why Kinsler could improve.
Again, simply taking the over is nothing remarkable to me.
SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!
You're right (above) that it is completely health dependent.
He had a great season last year, but did so with a low BABIP and a bad ankle. I think this year he finally puts it all together.
is it coincidence that he had his lowest BABIP seasons
when he went 30/30. In ‘09, I remember him being quite popup crazy, and last year to some extent, he had a tendency to do it, but I don’t remember being as annoyed by it perhaps because he was doing a better job of getting on base.
also, not coincidentally in ’09 and ’11 he had his lowest LD% and highest FB% of his career
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Under
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
GTFO
"I have thought a lot about why people get so hostile online, and I have come to believe it is primarily because we live in a society with a hypertrophied sense of justice and an atrophied sense of humility and charity, to put the matter in terms of the classic virtues." --Alan Jacobs
Stop stalking him!
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Don't become the '82 Milwaukee Brewers."
"You want false modesty? F that."
BOO THIS MAN!
Josey Wales: "And if you think intangibles really do exist, how in the F could you vote Ellsbury as the MVP?"
Adam J. Morris: "If it weren’t for my horse, I wouldn’t have spent that year in college."
I'm not sure why we're picking on you, buuuuuut......
DIAF!!!
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Feb 9, 2012 7:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
tough room
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
also....
I think it’s Cruz’ turn to stay healthy all year and go fucking buck wild.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"Baseball's all that's real" - JB
oooo
that would be so damn nice.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
.......MVP.....?
I hate The Angels so much, it's actually cramping my style. (See RevHaloFans SBN profile page)
by Gay For Feliz on Feb 10, 2012 8:00 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
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