2012 Community Projections - Position Players

Ian Kinsler PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
LSB Projection 658.6 .276 .368 .476 .844
2012 First Half 399 .279 .341 .442 .783

Ian's first half has seen an increase in BABIP from 2012 improving his average, but his walk rate of 7.8% is approaching his career low of 7.7%, well down from last year's 12.3%. His power number started strong, but have waned with an ISO of .163, below his career .190 and last year's fantastic .223.


Adrian Beltre PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
LSB Projection 594.5 .290 .334 .538 .872
2012 First Half 344 .326 .358 .524 .882

Adrian Beltre arguably been the Rangers most consistent offensive player in 2012 with an OPS of .900, .882 and .901 in April, May and June respectively. Early season hamstring issues limited his ability to play 3B, but he has recovered enough to score from first on last Saturday's walk off win and his defensive metrics are closer to the elite values he regularly puts up with a 4.3 UZR.


Josh Hamilton PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
LSB Projection 547.5 .307 .358 .554 .912
2012 First Half 342 .308 .380 .635 1.015

The community projected that Josh would have a strong year heading into free agency and he has not disappointed. His April and May were unbelievable with an OPS of 1.182 and 1.187, each leading to AL Player of the Month honors. June's numbers were a definite slump at .754, but even with second half regression, ZIPS expects Hamilton's final slash line to be a fantastic: .306 / .373 / .601.

Mike Napoli PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
LSB Projection 509.1 .285 .369 .546 .915
2012 First Half 285 .228 .340 .419 .759

The community projected a significant regression in 2012 for Mike Napoli with a .915 OPS compared to his 1.046 in 2011. Even with that 131 point drop off, Napoli had the highest projected OPS. The first half of 2012 has been a massive disappointment with those expectations. A career high strikeout rate and career low ISO have led to a current low offensive season. However, while his numbers are down compared to prior years, they are not dramatically down. The 2012 version of Mike Napoli is due for some regression up, but is still much, much closer to the true Mike Napoli than his amazing 2011 season.


Elvis Andrus PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
LSB Projection 665.5 .287 .356 .385 .742
2012 First Half 383 .293 .368 .393 .761

The LSB community projected Elvis to have his finest offensive season in 2012. His .708 OPS in 2011 was a career high and even a .742 would be blowing that out of the water. In the first half, Elvis has gone even a bit further. He has combined walking more than he ever has with a ~40 double pace to add above average offensive production to his defense and base running.


Nelson Cruz PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
LSB Projection 527.3 .280 .339 .540 .879
2012 First Half 344 .267 .323 .440 .763

Cruz' AVG and OBP in 2012 are very close to his 2011 rates, but there's been a massive drop off in power, which had been of his most reliable traits. His current .173 ISO would be the first time since 2007 that he posted an ISO less than .246.


Michael Young PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
LSB Projection 642.6 .304 .350 .450 .800
2012 First Half 357 .270 .303 .353 .641

Young's age 35 season has easily been the worst of his career. He is not getting base hits, walking or providing any power with career lows in BABIP, BB% and ISO. Only a year removed from one of his best offensive seasons of his career, you hope he regresses up towards his career numbers, but a player three months from being 36 years old may also simply be unable to perform as he once had.


Yorvit Torrealba PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
LSB Projection 367.8 .269 .317 .390 .707
2012 First Half 158 .216 .284 .309 .593

Not much was expected from Torrealba offensively. He's produced even less. Unrelated to community projections his game calling seems improved... maybe?


David Murphy PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
LSB Projection 432.5 .278 .335 .430 .765
2012 First Half 243 .288 .382 .483 .865

David Murphy has been a real bright spot for the 2012 Rangers. Several great offensive players are performing below expectations, but Murphy has been fantastic. He credits some of his success to Ian's advice to stand closer to the plate. I feel like we've yelled that at him for years. We'll also use this space to commend Craig Gentry's first half since we didn't do projections for him. Good job to Murphy and Gentry for being a great outfield platoon.


Mitch Moreland PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
LSB Projection 488.9 .269 .339 .445 .784
2012 First Half 173 .272 .326 .513 .838

Mitch's first half has been cut short with a DL trip, but in the time he played he hit the ball well for numbers exceeding meager expectations.

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