2013 Community Projections Results: Nelson Cruz

Boomstick was missed. - Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

2012 was sort of an aberration year for Nellie Cruz. He hit about like he normally does in AVG and OBP, but his SLG was down to .460 showing an unusual lack of power. The power came back in 2013, but the Sword of Damocles eventually fell and he was suspended for 50 games. Other than that, he had a very Nellie Cruz year with solid power, a .260ish average and .330ish OBP.

While we're here, let's also talk about Alex Rios who put up a .280 / .315 / .457 slash while with the Rangers that combined with 16 SB and pretty good defense made him worth 1.1 fWAR and 1.0 bWAR. Translated over a full season, that's 3+ WAR, or about what you'd expect from Alex Rios. In two thirds of a season, Nelson Cruz put up 1.5 fWAR and 2.0 bWAR, so even though they did in different ways, they provided roughly the same value by those imperfect metrics.

From a projection standpoint, LSB was very close in expecting Nellie Cruz to have a Nellie Cruz year coupled with likely missing time due to either injury or suspension.

Congratulations to gossamer (long time community projection dude) for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2013 value

Results PA AVG OBP SLG SCORE
2013 Season 456 .266 .327 .506
LSB Average 499.7 .266 .321 .487 0.45
ZiPS 556 .264 .320 .476 0.81
Steamer 483 .266 .328 .486 0.33
2012 Season 642 .260 .319 .460 1.36
Top Five Projections
1. gossamer 497 .268 .329 .506 0.23
2. casew 499 .265 .328 .511 0.24
3. Aqua 475 .271 .330 .505 0.25
4. Jobu. 500 .265 .325 .510 0.26
5. mlsof21 475 .271 .331 .505 0.27
Bottom Five Projections
84. adawk91 375 .255 .300 .430 1.74
85. MrPryor 501 .221 .309 .469 1.82
86. Mark from OC 321 .249 .299 .419 2.18
87. Baseball North 550 .300 .360 .560 2.23
88. huebone 485 .318 .356 .611 2.72
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