2013 Community Projections Results: David Murphy

Brandon Wade

Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

Every year there's an example of a guy having a career best season the previous year and several folks projecting that for future years as sustainable. We've had it with Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz in the past few years.

Then there's the cliff that David Murphy fell off of after having a fantastic 2012. This isn't regression, it's just awful. And while it was a really bad year, his walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO and batted ball profile were pretty close to his career averages. But the killer was a .227 BABIP, well off his career average of .300+. Much like Murphy was pretty much a guarantee to regress to some degree to his career numbers after a career best 2012, he's also likely to regress up to his career numbers in 2014.

Congratulations to gofuhcureself (glad he changed his name) for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2013 value

Results PA AVG OBP SLG SCORE
2013 Season 476 .220 .282 .374
LSB Average 550.1 .285 .350 .448 4.25
ZiPS 478 .275 .341 .427 3.12
Steamer 484 .282 .354 .448 3.84
2012 Season 521 .304 .380 .479 5.48
Top Five Projections
1. gofuhcureself 499 .265 .324 .417 2.57
2. huebone 528 .273 .314 .411 2.71
3. Adam J. Morris 484 .273 .331 .413 2.75
4. TheHuntforRedOctober 515 .274 .320 .430 3.02
5. Gdawg 500 .275 .330 .425 3.05
Bottom Five Projections
81. Bats and Balls 580 .295 .370 .478 5.43
82. MikeEl 650 .289 .365 .467 5.46
83. Philar 540 .300 .378 .495 5.68
84. Baseball North 600 .310 .375 .500 6.32
85. LSU Ranger 580 .315 .402 .501 6.78
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