Every year there's an example of a guy having a career best season the previous year and several folks projecting that for future years as sustainable. We've had it with Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz in the past few years.
Then there's the cliff that David Murphy fell off of after having a fantastic 2012. This isn't regression, it's just awful. And while it was a really bad year, his walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO and batted ball profile were pretty close to his career averages. But the killer was a .227 BABIP, well off his career average of .300+. Much like Murphy was pretty much a guarantee to regress to some degree to his career numbers after a career best 2012, he's also likely to regress up to his career numbers in 2014.
Congratulations to gofuhcureself (glad he changed his name) for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.
*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2013 value
|Top Five Projections|
|3. Adam J. Morris||484||.273||.331||.413||2.75|
|Bottom Five Projections|
|81. Bats and Balls||580||.295||.370||.478||5.43|
|84. Baseball North||600||.310||.375||.500||6.32|
|85. LSU Ranger||580||.315||.402||.501||6.78|