2013 Community Projections Results: Adrian Beltre

Ronald Martinez

Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

Adrian Beltre is amazing. For the third straight year he's delivered over 5 WAR for the Texas Rangers and for the second year in a row, been their clear MVP.

The LSB community projected another strong year from Beltre, but assuming his playing time would go down since he's 34 years old now. Instead Beltre had almost 700 plate appearances despite playing on gimpy hamstrings. For the first time as a Texas Ranger he did not finish the season strong. September was his worst month of the year with a .687 OPS. In each of the past two years he had been named the AL Player of Month for September.

Adrian has exceeded the expectations of even the most ardent supporters of his signing, and speaking of supporting his signing...

Congratulations to the biggest advocate for his signing, JBImaknee for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2013 value

Results PA AVG OBP SLG SCORE
2013 Season 690 .315 .371 .509
LSB Average 592.7 .302 .344 .540 2.00
ZiPS 574 .296 .334 .516 2.17
Steamer 579 .295 .338 .514 2.05
2012 Season 654 .321 .359 .561 1.36
Top Five Projections
1. JBImaknee 631 .319 .368 .566 0.81
2. bafusilier 620 .317 .355 .575 0.98
3. Atticus F 630 .308 .350 .565 1.22
4. MikeEl 639 .306 .349 .554 1.22
5. bigsteve 579 .315 .354 .568 1.29
Bottom Five Projections
92. Dirk Diggler 575 .285 .330 .550 2.97
93. thegreatjared 521 .290 .330 .535 3.05
94. I am Neftali Feliz 535 .278 .338 .542 3.18
95. 3Bagger 500 .280 .321 .525 3.50
96. LiamP 500 .280 .320 .490 3.56
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