2013 Community Projections Results: Joe Nathan

Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

Doubt Joe Nathan at your own peril.

2013 was another exceptional turned in by the 53 year old Nathan where early worries at diminished velocity went away as he continued to go out get the job done. Joe's not likely to be a Ranger in 2014 because his cost probably isn't the best allocation of resources with our other bullpen arms under contract. But I'm glad we got two excellent years from one of the best ever at his role. And for only $7 million a year to boot, basically about half the price that a dominant closer has been paid on the free agent market.

We'll miss you Joe Nathan.

Also, since we didn't do a projection on him, hat tip to a fine season by Tanner Scheppers. After being a ranked prospect that was losing steam, he had a very good year as a set up man. Now we just need his strikeouts to match his stuff and his whiff rate.

Congratulations to hefe300 for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2013 value

Results IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 SCORE
2013 Season 64.7 1.39 10.16 3.06 0.28
LSB Average 58.9 2.99 9.56 2.02 1.10 2.52
ZiPS 49.3 3.65 9.68 2.37 1.28 3.02
Steamer 46.0 2.95 9.46 2.76 0.98 2.33
2012 Season 64.3 2.80 10.91 1.82 0.98 2.35
Top Five Projections
1. hefe300 63.0 2.74 10.00 2.50 0.80 1.58
2. gossamer 62.0 2.84 10.20 2.70 1.10 1.74
3. Cascade Ranger 62.1 2.45 9.53 2.45 1.01 1.81
4. bigsteve 59.0 2.60 10.20 2.40 1.07 1.86
5. Heebs 68.0 2.35 9.90 1.90 0.90 1.92
Bottom Five Projections
77. RangerMad 48.0 3.33 8.90 2.10 1.70 3.66
78. ok.fester 53.0 4.23 8.60 2.20 1.30 3.71
79. Adam J. Morris 31.0 3.41 8.70 2.10 1.20 3.84
80. Mark from OC 30.0 3.55 8.90 2.10 1.40 4.04
81. LiamP 32.0 4.85 7.80 2.90 1.75 4.81
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