2013 Community Projections Results: Leonys Martin

#swag - Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Reviewing the best and worst of the pre-season community projections.

Leonys Martin had a decent 2013. His offense was below average, but his defense and baserunning provided solid value around 3 wins (2.7 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR). He had several memorable moments by gunning down runners all year long from centerfield and stealing 36 bases, but he didn't hit or walk that much and limited power numbers.

LSB community projections expected much more significant production offensively, likely based on the fantastic 260 PA / .359 / .422 / .610 line he put up in 2012 while in AAA. The reports from the Rangers indicated that his hitting was the part of his game they expected to do well, but his defense and baserunning were still raw. 2013 basically saw the opposite. Or rather 2011 and 2012 helped refine his defense and baserunning to be above average but his hitting talents have to translate as above average at the major league level. However, even without the lights out hitting he displayed in the minor leagues, being able to hit well enough to play above average CF and steal bases makes him a viable player.

Congratulations to Philar for having the lowest score* with his projection. Here is a spreadsheet with how everyone did.

*Score is the average number of standard deviations away from the actual 2013 value

Results PA AVG OBP SLG SCORE
2013 Season 508 .260 .313 .385
LSB Average 461.6 .284 .342 .439 1.52
ZiPS 388 .270 .326 .415 1.20
Steamer 253 .277 .335 .433 2.25
2012 Season 52 .174 .235 .370 4.89
Top Five Projections
1. Philar 485 .266 .322 .398 0.46
2. casew 515 .263 .333 .401 0.51
3. dolphinpuncher 485 .263 .312 .434 0.61
4. Travis93 500 .255 .300 .425 0.66
5. Black Francis 477 .254 .323 .418 0.69
Bottom Five Projections
85. Soonernick 493 .293 .368 .504 2.47
86. Akalhar 510 .303 .373 .484 2.47
87. Mark from OC 555 .309 .369 .469 2.60
88. FelizCheez 516 .312 .360 .501 2.61
89. Rodney 425 .300 .400 .500 3.34
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