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Sunday NFL OT: Key Numbers

Witt and Aqua and I had a discussion last week about so-called "dead" numbers for football bettors. One of the very few respectable tout sites posted an article yesterday that explains when and when not to buy points.

Key Numbers and the NFL. The math behind when and when not to buy points


Securing the best number at the best price is so very important long term in sports betting. I am amazed at the number of people who settle for a poor number and/or a poor price. Something I see on twitter constantly. It goes back to the mathematics. You are reducing any edge that you as the bettor may have had over the book. Understanding which numbers to buy and at what prices will increase long term profitability.

Predicting line moves and beating the closing line is the best predictor of long term betting success. Historically, the point spread matters in the NFL only about 15% to 18% of the time. That is, between 82% and 85 % of the time the team that wins the game also covers the point spread. Either the favorite wins and covers, or the Underdog pulls off the upset and wins straight up. That 15% to 18% figure refers to those times when the Favorite wins but does not cover the point spread. However when you take into account line moves from opening to closing, pushes and half point losses (or wins) this 15% -18% can become rather important.

In the NFL there are some 'key numbers' - they are very important. You should already know about them. A move off or onto a key number is a big sign. It takes a significant volume of money or change in the line ups (injury etc) to move onto or through a key number. This is because a few of them appear so often.

Read the full post here.
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