FanPost

The Odor

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

After a really "quick" writeup on Gallo, Id thought I would do a study of one of the true bright spots in the organization this year: Rougned Odor. Odor is a 19 year old second baseman that, by all accounts, is a very good defender. His defensive skills are good enough that the Rangers have moved him to SS at various points over the last few seasons. This year the opportunity for that has not really arisen due in part to his double play partner being Luis Sardinas (I started writing this a couple of days ago so before last night’s announcement).

Methodology

I took the top 100 qualifiers in each league in A+, sorted by OPS and then took the CSV table and imported into excel. I also took the overall team info for each league and did the same. With this information I created a template that calculated more advanced stats such as wOBA, wRC+, ISO, BABIP, etc. I balanced everything off the entirety of A+ not the player’s specific league. For example, Cano’s wOBA is based upon all of A+ ball not simply the FSL.

My Background

I forgot to include my background on my first post. I have posted on here for a long time but mainly have been a lurker. I played college baseball for 4 years at a small university. I currently am an analyst for a large commercial bank and hold an MBA in Finance and MS in Accounting. At the moment I am still taking graduate level classes in Information Technology with my eye on starting my PhD shortly.

Roooooooooooooooooooooooooooogie

Odor is a player that has shown steady improvement since being signed by the Rangers out of Venezuela. This year in Myrtle Beach it seems that he has broken out. His current slash line is .309/.373/.461 (at the time of this writing his OPS was at .910 during the second half). He boasts a wOBA of .376 with a BB rate of 6.27% and a K rate of 16.14%. All of those numbers are very good if not great for a 19 year old in his first swim through high A ball. Odor has been absolutely red hot in the second half with all "good" offensive numbers improving while decreasing his K rate.

Odor may be having the most impressive season of any Rangers prospect this year (sad face for CJ Edwards). For this exercise I have added a couple more aspects to my study. I input the formula for wRC+ and expanded the population back to 1990.

19 year olds in Historical Context (Carolina League)

Odor is one of 40 19 year olds that qualifies for our study. Names on this list (as you can see below) include Andruw Jones, Wil Myers, and Grady Sizemore. I sorted the list by wRC+. Odor is the only 2B in the top 11 and figures to be the only one of those 11 to play MIF in the majors (I guess Bogaerts is sticking at SS though). Twins super prospect Francisco Lindor is also in the neighborhood. Note: Don’t worry about the headers stating "Average". Makes the pivot more easily sortable and it is not really an average because I concatenated the year and player to make unique values therefore it is an average of one number.

Odor’s ISO is pretty good for a player of 19 in High A ball. Only 4 2B in the majors have ISOs over .152 right now (Uggla, Cano, Kipnis, Carpenter). On the note of Kipnis (he was 23) I added a chart with Kipnis’ performance in High A ball. As you can see the numbers are very good. Admittedly, Odor trails Kipnis slightly in every category however remember that Odor is the age at which Kipnis was during his sophomore year in college. I really like the Kipnis comps but I think it would be a good exercise to look at Cano’s numbers as well.

Cano played in the FSL at age 20 with the Yankees of course. He put up a 92.3 wRC+ with a .320 wOBA which are not that impressive (remember this is balanced against all of A+, I am well aware of the FSL being a pitcher’s league). He also struck about 3 times as much as he walked. He did not show the power he previously showed in A ball but the FSL may have had something to do with that. The Yankees promoted him the next year and he broke out in AA in his age 21 season. Invoking Cano is not intimating that I believe Odor will have this type of career just helps show how good of a year that Odor is having at such a young age. Cano also was promoted after almost 400 at bats during his only year in A+ ball.

Cano went on to his best full season in the minors the next year. He got a mid-season promotion to AAA that year and then began his ascent to the elite level player he is now. The interesting thing to note is that this improved performance coincided (or was caused by, yes yes logical fallacies and all) with a marked improvement in his strikeout to walk rate. Cano wasn’t necessarily striking out any less but he was walking more. If you look at Odor’s numbers you can see that in the 2nd half of the season he has vastly improved his K% while walking more. Very similar to Cano’s 2004.

Yes Odor does not have the power that Cano possesses and likely never will (I sincerely doubt Odor has the type or strength or swing plane that Cano has – cannot wait to see Odor in Frisco) but Odor is actually a more accomplished hitter at this stage in his career than Cano was. Cano held his own in 2003 after his promotion to AA and how Odor handles his recent promotion will be very interesting as the jump to AA , by all accounts, is the most significant test for a prospect.

In summary, I am not saying that Odor will turn into Cano (doubt he will ever have close to the power) but he profiles as a first division starter at 2B. Assuming a Kinsler moves off of 2B I think the choice is beginning to be whether the Rangers extract more value out of a 2015 Andrus/Odor double play combo with Profar being the centerpiece to a deal or a 2015 Andrus/Profar with Odor being the centerpiece to a deal. Of course there is one other possibility that will probably never happen but could in 2015: Profar – 3B, Andrus – SS, Odor – 2B, Beltre – 1B, Kinlser – LF. Whatever happens the Rangers are in the midst of developing yet another quality MIF.

Row Labels

Age

wRC+

wOBA

BB%

K%

BBK Rate

ISO

Dan Uggla

2003

23

138.32

0.392

7.57%

17.27%

0.44

0.214

Howie Kendrick

2005

21

171.65

0.462

4.61%

13.82%

0.33

0.254

Jason Kipnis

2010

23

137.76

0.392

10.13%

19.41%

0.52

0.178

Jose Altuve

2011

21

180.78

0.465

7.98%

10.92%

0.73

0.198

Robinson Cano

2003

20

92.31

0.320

4.36%

12.56%

0.35

0.101

Rougned Odor

2013

19

128.30

0.376

6.27%

16.14%

0.39

0.152

I also included a couple players that were just mentioned on twitter. Odor is the youngest of the lot and also, save Cano, the least productive. Adam brought up Kendrick on twitter and I think that is a really good comp as well.

Sorry did not publish the 19 y/o Table:

Row Labels wRC+ Field wOBA Field BB% Field K% Field BBK Rate Field ISO Field
1996Andruw Jones 170.3 0.458 14.53% 18.69% 0.78 0.292
2010Wil Myers 167.9 0.439 14.98% 15.79% 0.95 0.166
2002Grady Sizemore* 162.2 0.431 15.94% 14.49% 1.10 0.14
1991Melvin Nieves 150.5 0.410 16.19% 21.46% 0.75 0.189
2009Jason Heyward* 143.1 0.398 9.81% 14.02% 0.70 0.223
1997Aramis Ramirez 141.2 0.405 13.82% 17.79% 0.78 0.239
2012Xander Bogaerts 139.3 0.395 9.89% 19.54% 0.51 0.203
2009Freddie Freeman 137.2 0.389 8.75% 13.80% 0.63 0.145
1990Greg Blosser* 135.9 0.390 10.91% 19.64% 0.56 0.177
2003Andy Marte 132.1 0.382 12.38% 20.15% 0.61 0.184
2013Rougned Odor 128.3 0.376 6.27% 16.14% 0.39 0.152
1995Edgard Clemente 123.3 0.369 7.26% 18.51% 0.39 0.153
2013Francisco Lindor 117.0 0.358 9.38% 10.46% 0.90 0.104
2009Anthony Rizzo* 116.5 0.356 10.92% 17.03% 0.64 0.125
1990Ryan Klesko* 114.2 0.355 9.64% 15.96% 0.60 0.134
1993Raul Gonzalez 112.2 0.360 10.31% 11.07% 0.93 0.15
2008Chris Marrero 110.5 0.350 8.65% 19.03% 0.45 0.203
2003Gregor Blanco* 110.1 0.348 10.25% 21.63% 0.47 0.104
1994Ricky Magdaleno 105.7 0.344 9.96% 16.26% 0.61 0.149
2001Wilson Betemit 105.2 0.338 6.65% 20.52% 0.32 0.135
1996Gene Kingsale 99.9 0.340 9.69% 16.33% 0.59 0.084
2004Ryan Sweeney* 99.2 0.335 7.05% 11.46% 0.62 0.096
2001Jhonny Peralta 95.4 0.322 11.49% 29.31% 0.39 0.111
1991Rich Aude 94.4 0.323 6.72% 17.91% 0.38 0.068
1992David Bell 93.9 0.320 10.23% 12.50% 0.82 0.084
2011Jonathan Schoop 92.7 0.323 6.69% 13.37% 0.50 0.104
2013Courtney Hawkins 89.8 0.315 7.29% 42.71% 0.17 0.266
2008Billy Rowell 89.3 0.316 8.70% 25.12% 0.35 0.12
2005Ian Desmond 88.7 0.323 8.47% 21.37% 0.40 0.128
2003Andres Blanco 80.3 0.301 9.38% 10.66% 0.88 0.043
1998Luis Lorenzana 79.8 0.301 10.48% 18.56% 0.56 0.06
1996Elvis Pena 79.5 0.306 14.56% 16.71% 0.87 0.05
1993Feliciano Mercedes 74.5 0.298 9.67% 20.00% 0.48 0.087
1997Eddy Martinez 74.0 0.293 9.50% 21.50% 0.44 0.052
2012Cheslor Cuthbert 71.8 0.287 7.16% 15.47% 0.46 0.082
2012Hanser Alberto 70.0 0.284 0.69% 9.31% 0.07 0.097
1992Rafael Soto 67.0 0.277 7.67% 11.00% 0.70 0.019
2011Christian Bethancourt 60.9 0.272 1.71% 20.00% 0.09 0.054
1990Jesus Tavarez 59.2 0.267 4.96% 19.60% 0.25 0.032
2001Guillermo Reyes 47.8 0.248 5.83% 13.75% 0.42 0.028

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