So, I had a discussion with others in the morning thread about whether Fielder would live up to his contract. Benjihana said that he would be worth his contract if he had ~23 WAR through the life of it. Here's a listing of first basemen with similar WAR (around 27.5, Fielder's WAR through those seasons) and durability to Fielder (4,000+ PAs) through his age 22-29 seasons.
|Player||Year of Age 30 Season||Total WAR 22-29||Total WAR 30-36|
|Mark Teixeira||2010||31.0||9.7 in 4 yrs (16.975 pro-rated to 7 years)|
|Hal Trosky||1943||30.6||1.0 (was at war)|
|Adrian Gonzalez||2012||25.2||6.1 in 2 years (21.35 pro-rated to 7 years)|
So, of the 12 players above him and 12 players below him, only 4 (being generous with Judge) were able (or are on pace) to reach the 23 WAR threshold. 1 was from 1898, another from 1924, and the last two were from the steroids era and one was confirmed to have used PEDs.
Now, some of the players came fairly close to the threshold and overall, I think it's quite likely that Fielder joins their group. But the amount of players who flame out is much higher than I think most posters realize. And given the success rate of 1 in 6, I don't think the risk taken on warrants accepting the contract the Rangers got.
Hopefully, Prince proves me wrong on all accounts.