FanPost

Comps for Fielder

So, I had a discussion with others in the morning thread about whether Fielder would live up to his contract. Benjihana said that he would be worth his contract if he had ~23 WAR through the life of it. Here's a listing of first basemen with similar WAR (around 27.5, Fielder's WAR through those seasons) and durability to Fielder (4,000+ PAs) through his age 22-29 seasons.

Player Year of Age 30 Season Total WAR 22-29 Total WAR 30-36
Will Clark 1994 33.6 18.5
Jim Thome 2001 33.5 27.5
Fred McGriff 1994 33.3 18.0
Todd Helton 2004 33.2 20.5
Don Mattingly 1991 31.7 9.0
Mark Teixeira 2010 31.0 9.7 in 4 yrs (16.975 pro-rated to 7 years)
Rudy York 1944 30.8 9.3
Hal Trosky 1943 30.6 1.0 (was at war)
Rafael Palmeiro 1995 29.8 33.0
Kent Hrbek 1990 28.5 9.1
Al Oliver 1977 28.1 20.9
Prince Fielder 2014 27.5 ?
Joe Judge 1924 25.9 22.5
Steve Garvey 1979 25.9 12.6
Adrian Gonzalez 2012 25.2 6.1 in 2 years (21.35 pro-rated to 7 years)
Jason Thompson 1985 25.2 0.8
Jake Beckley 1898 25.2 24.9
Fred Merkle 1919 25.0 2.2
Ted Kluszewski 1955 24.7 9.2
John Mayberry 1979 24.5 4.9
Darin Erstad 2004 23.7 4.6
Wally Pipp 1923 23.0 7.7
Alvin Davis 1991 22.8 -1.7
Carlos Delgado 2002 22.7 20.4
Ron Fairly 1969 22.7 19.5

So, of the 12 players above him and 12 players below him, only 4 (being generous with Judge) were able (or are on pace) to reach the 23 WAR threshold. 1 was from 1898, another from 1924, and the last two were from the steroids era and one was confirmed to have used PEDs.

Now, some of the players came fairly close to the threshold and overall, I think it's quite likely that Fielder joins their group. But the amount of players who flame out is much higher than I think most posters realize. And given the success rate of 1 in 6, I don't think the risk taken on warrants accepting the contract the Rangers got.

Hopefully, Prince proves me wrong on all accounts.

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