FanPost

How the AL West (could be) won

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

OK. Here are the rules to this thought experiment. It assumes the Rangers won 90+ games and the AL West in 2017. There is no commentary or thoughts on any hypothetical post season - I just can't bring myself to go there. It also assumes that the roster in place now is basically the roster that plays out the season, so no speculation on deadline deals or any other acquisitions. And no assumptions are allowed that are, at this point, totally unreasonable. While crazy things have been known to happen in baseball - I'm not basing anything of this thought experiment on something outlandish like Nick Martinez winning 18 games or Jared Hoying hitting 25 home runs or some such. With all of that in mind, here is one template of how the Rangers can somewhat replicate the regular season success of 2016 (without the run differential outlier business). Here's how the West was won. (In no particular order)

1. Adrian Beltre defies Father Time for one more year - playing in 148 games and putting up an OPS of .843 while playing his usual outstanding defense.

2. Yu Darvish puts it all together - starting 33 games (winning 19) with a 2.81 ERA and 279 K's in 214 IP. Cole Hamels pitches like Cole Hamels, another 200+ inning season with an ERA/FIP of under 3.50. Martin Perez steps forward with a 200 inning season of a 3.92 ERA/4.10 FIP - solidifying the middle of the rotation.

3. Nomar Mazara and Rougned Odor take a step forward with Mazara hitting left-handed pitchers better and for more power and Odor showing a bit more plate discipline (5.4% BB rate) and better defense, cutting down his errors from 22 to 16 while showing a bit better range.

4. Shin-Soo Choo stays relatively healthy, playing in 131 games with a wRC+ of 119 (powered mainly by an OBP of .389).

5. Elvis Andrus, healthy and recovered from his groin/hernia issue, displays better range and plays defense more reminiscent of his 2013-14 form - short of his peak value defensively, but solid. He also continues in his offensive improvement, putting up a wRC+ of 104 with a career high of 10 HR. He runs a bit less, but more effectively - stealing 22 bases but is only thrown out 4 times.

6. Carlos Gomez has a solid season, playing a better than average CF and hitting 18 HR and stealing 19 bases, putting up a wRC+ of 101 and an fWAR of 3.4. Along with a full season of Lucroy and better defense from Andrus and Odor, the up the middle defense of the Rangers is significantly improved - helping the Rangers to improve their run prevention - allowing 684 runs (73 runs fewer than in 2016)

7. Mike Napoli is solid, putting up a wRC+ of 110 and hitting 25 HR. His defensive metrics are improved over 2016, but still a bit below average. Jurickson Profar and Ryan Rua both have good seasons, platooning more or less in LF while both getting action at other positions - Profar puts up a wRC+ of 100, putting up a good OBP of .341 and playing plus defense all over the diamond. Rua hits LH pitching to the tune of a wRC+ of 128 and slugs 17 HR - playing LF/1B and occasionally DHing.

8. Cashner ends up making 21 starts and giving the team 111 innings of meh baseball, while Tyson Ross makes it back in early June, makes a total of 18 starts and finds his form as the season progresses, pitching his best baseball in August and September, giving another reliable starter down the stretch. A.J. Griffin, Mike Hauschild, Eddie Gamboa, Nick Martinez, and Chi Chi Gonzales all fill in during the time Cashner and Ross are out - each having a moment or two where they help the team win a few games. The solid top 3 in the rotation keep the back end from being too big of a strain on bullpen and Ross' emergence down the stretch gives the team a big shot in the arm.

9. The bullpen is nails - as Dyson, Bush, Jeffress and Kela are all overpowering for significant stretches of the season and the depth on the right side allows the team to not overuse any one of the quartet. Alex Claudio is solid in a number of roles, giving the team help in getting key LH out and at times saving the rest of the bullpen with multi-inning outings. Tony Barnette continues to be a reliable option in the middle innings. The last spot in the bullpen is a bit of a revolving door, but Hauschild ends up being a long man with some utility - contributing a couple of key 3-4 inning outings in August and September to keep the staff fresh.

10. Finally, Joey Gallo, DDS, Drew Robinson and Jared Hoying all provide the team with help in spots during the season and in September. Yohander Mendez has a good season in AAA and provides the team a hopeful glimpse of the future when in late September, with the team setting up it's rotation for the playoffs and Cashner on the DL - he gives the team a 6 inning, 4 hit, 1 run, 8K performance to help them win a game 5-1. Conner Sadzeck also pitches well enough in AAA to give the team hope that he can either be a functional BORP or an overpowering reliever.

There it is. How the AL West was won in 2017.