Newberg's top 72 Rangers Prospects

by rooster on Jan 1, 2008 12:38 PM CST Comment 120 comments

Chris Davis, 3B
Eric Hurley, RHP
Taylor Teagarden, C
Elvis Andrus, SS
Kasey Kiker, LHP
Michael Main, RHP
Blake Beavan, RHP
Engel Beltre, OF
Matt Harrison, LHP
Neftali Feliz, RHP
German Duran, 2B
Max Ramirez, C
Fabio Castillo, RHP
Cristian Santana, C
David Murphy, OF
Johnny Whittleman, 3B
Luis Mendoza, RHP
Omar Poveda, RHP
Neil Ramirez, RHP
Tommy Hunter, RHP
Thomas Diamond, RHP
Julio Borbon, OF
Josh Rupe, RHP
Wilmer Font, RHP
Joaquin Arias, SS
Brandon Boggs, OF
Zach Phillips, LHP
John Mayberry Jr., OF
Omar Beltre, RHP
A.J. Murray, LHP
Armando Galarraga, RHP
Marcus Lemon, SS
Carlos Pimentel, RHP
Brennan Garr, RHP
Jose Vallejo, 2B
Evan Reed, RHP
Michael Schlact, RHP
Danny Ray Herrera, LHP
Wilfredo Boscan, RHP
Derek Holland, LHP
Beau Jones, LHP
Steve Murphy, OF
Jorge Quintero, RHP
Nate Gold, 1B
Alexi Ogando, RHP
Matt West, IF
Doug Mathis, RHP
Bill White, LHP
Kea Kometani, RHP
Jake Brigham, RHP
Kennil Gomez, RHP
Tug Hulett, 2B
Emmanuel Solis, 3B
David Paisano, OF
Martin Perez, LHP
Manuel Pina, C
Andrew Laughter, RHP
Miguel Velazquez, OF
Josh Lueke, RHP
Geuris Grullon, LHP
Miguel Alfonzo, OF
Chad Tracy, OF
Tim Smith, OF
Eric Fry, OF
Johan Yan, 3B
Jesse Ingram, RHP
Mitch Moreland, 1B
Glenn Swanson, LHP
Emerson Frostad, 1B
Kevin Mahar, OF
Jonathan Greene, C
Mike Ballard, LHP

I finalized the list before the acquisition of Warner Madrigal, the re-signing of Kendy Batista, and the trades that sent Danny Ray Herrera and Tug Hulett away.

----------------------

Initial reactions...
(1) Another list, another #1.
(2) Ranking Ogandi and Omar Beltre is kind of an academic excercise, IMO. They have no value to the Rangers now or in the foreseeable future. However, it's interesting to see they both rank below JMJ.
(3) Lemon below JMJ?
(4) Font, 24??
(5) It's official that I am the only one who thinks AJ has something interesting about him. His K/9 and BB/K remind me of Doug Davis.
(6) The LSB community prospect list
(7) cool stuff.

0 recs | Comment 120 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Pretty unusual that

virtually every list we see has a different guy on top. Certainly can't quarrel with Davis.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 12:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Main is my #1

if you apologize for everything, you apologize for nothing...

by Longhorn on Jan 1, 2008 12:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i like main more than most

but to me, hes behind davis, tea - about even w/ feliz, e beltre, andrus above kiker, beaven

so thats in the 3-5 range

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's where I'd have him too

...probably about five to be specific. But I really have no problem with someone ranking any of Hurley, Davis, Andrus, Main, Teagarden, Beavan, Feliz or Beltre first. I think that you could make a nice argument for any of those guys. Feliz never occurred to me as someone who could be ranked that high, but I'm not sure that Goldstein isn't ahead of the curve on that.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

+ 1 on

Feliz never occurred to me as someone who could be ranked that high, but I'm not sure that Goldstein isn't ahead of the curve on that.

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 2:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm with you on Main.

My list goes Hurley, Davis, Main, Kiker, Tea, Andrus, Beltre, Castillo, Beavan, Duran...

I recall in BA chat wrap-ups for both the AZL and NWL, he would've been the top-rated prospect. This is the most impressive debut by a HS pitcher since the Rangers really started focusing on them in 2003.

Colbert/Colbert '08

by rooster on Jan 1, 2008 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Unusual?

Not unusual at all when you have a system that is not that strong.

by LBrooks on Jan 1, 2008 1:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You are right

and everyone else in baseball is wrong. No, maybe it's just a vast conspiracy to fool Ranger fans. All of the national baseball writers are in on it. Yeah, that's it.

Cranberry Sauce

by t ball on Jan 1, 2008 1:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that it has anything to do with

good or bad. It is generally just as easy to identify a #1 prospect in a bad system as a good one. It's just a question of how bunched together your top talent is, however good it is. And their top talent is a notch below elite and very bunched together.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 1:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Many would disagree

Kevin Goldstein:

Entering the year as the 22nd-ranked system in baseball, the Rangers are now one of the better ones around. They do lack that level of elite talent, but at the same time, this is an enormously deep system, with another six to eight players after the Top 11 that one could argue deserve three stars--a rating that many teams exhaust before they get down to their 11the man.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7013

John Sickels:

This is a loaded system.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/11/24/124548/25

Jim Callis:

Nathan (San Diego): When I open Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook, which team's farm system am I going to find made the biggest jump from last year? Also - are any new Indians prospects going to break into the top 100?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:25 PM ET ) The Rangers. Via trades and the draft, plus the improvement of prospects already on hand, they'll jump from No. 28 last year to perhaps the top five. I haven't broken down all the systems, so I can't be more precise.

http://www.lonestarball.com/story/2007/11/28/15818/768

And Keith Law recently said that the Rangers have the #2 system in baseball, behind just the D-Rays.

There are numerous legitimate criticisms that can be leveled at the organization. Saying that the farm system isn't strong, though, is not one of them.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2008 1:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Too many facts.

Not enough truthiness. :)

Colbert/Colbert '08

by rooster on Jan 1, 2008 1:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

in lieu of writing a response

every time LBrooks makes his ridiculous claims about the farm system, I'm just gonna link to this comment, if that's alright with you.

by a bebop a rebop on Jan 1, 2008 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Rather Than.........

........question my judgement about the system that I've been hearing about is great for 8 years now, when this team gets to a playoff game, please call me.

by LBrooks on Jan 2, 2008 12:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey....

.......I just thoughta something......

I'll bet that Trey Hillman and the KC Royals have a better recored than the Rangers do in 2008.

I'm taking bets right now.........

by LBrooks on Jan 2, 2008 12:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take that bet

and if I win, you never post another comment on this site again.

by B_Black on Jan 2, 2008 1:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

2008 record

that very well could happen -- and it would mean exactly nothing regarding the state of the Rangers minor league system.

2008 is not going to be a good year for the major league team, everyone understands that. What you're looking for is progress made by the younger players in the majors and maybe another trade or two that add more pieces to the puzzle for the future. It sucks, but I'd rather that be happening than have Daniels act like Ed Wade in Houston.

Cranberry Sauce

by t ball on Jan 2, 2008 1:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Question your judgement?

You don't have a "judgement" here. The guys who are experts on the minor leagues have the judgement. You have nothing except blind negativity.

And the point of this whole discussion is that the Rangers have jumped in the aforementioned rankings... which, if you can follow, means that they were very poorly ranked as recently as last year. They haven't been highly ranked for "8 years now".

Jesus.

by a bebop a rebop on Jan 3, 2008 10:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wait a second

Are you saying that 28th last year (before the Danks trade) was not highly ranked!?! :)

by Brett Perryman on Jan 4, 2008 8:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The system has depth

but isn't top heavy.

Unfortunately most minor league depth will be working at office Depot in 5 years.

Give me a top heavy system. I like those top 10 in baseball more than the guys who nudge into the top 100, but cant break the top 50.

"As of now they're (The Astros) world series favorites. Period." - Sharky

by DJCahill on Jan 2, 2008 5:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

newbie

is a putz.

by mrpman on Jan 1, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

AJ Murray

You are not the only one who thinks he is interesting, I bet there are many here intrigued by him. But with his injury history you can't really rank him too high.

He's my darkhorse for the annual Rangers pitcher who gets our hopes up in the last two months (see Loe, Tejeda, Gabbard).

Cranberry Sauce

by t ball on Jan 1, 2008 1:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I tend to

think of Murray and Rupe in the same general way. I'm more optimistic that Murray stays healthy for longer stretches and feel like Rupe possibly has a little greater upside (just based on stuff), but, for me, they're both guys you like to have around and guys who could really help a staff in a given year, but you just have to let them establish themselves at any given point, rather than planning on anything from them.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 1:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's a good way to put it

eom

Miles changes his signature too much.

by Chase Irwin on Jan 1, 2008 2:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

AJ

is my #1 relief prospect. He'd be among my top 5 starting pitcher prospects if I had put him there.

by mjh on Jan 1, 2008 1:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

RP might be his calling.

He did post his best K/9 as a RP last year. He did well against righties last year, so he has the potential to be more than a LOOGY.

I recall BGLs strong endorsement of the Pirate, and I let that color my interpretation of AJs K/9 last year, and I get really excited about him as a starter.

Colbert/Colbert '08

by rooster on Jan 1, 2008 1:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

BTW

Is Warner Madrigal on your RP list? It would be impressive to have AJ ahead of him.

Look forward to the next installments of your list. I always enjoy farm reports from folks who have seen these guys in action.

Colbert/Colbert '08

by rooster on Jan 1, 2008 5:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Omar Poveda

Something a little fascinating to me is how this guy is viewed in certain circles outside of the envelope of the Rangers organization and fandom. On minorleagueball.com, Poveda is getting all kinds of mention in the middle of their reader "community" top 100. Yet most of us, Jamey included, have him in the teens in our estimation. It's a function of depth mostly, but still interesting.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 1:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

poveda

poveda:
4.23 era, 360 ip, 27 hr allowed, 99bb/343k, 2.48 bb.9, 8.58 k/9, 1.26 whip

he didnt do so well in A+ but it was his first try there at age 19.

next year is a make or break year for him to me...

that said, 11-4, 2.79, 8.59 k/9, 2.29 bb/9, 120 k/32 bb in 125 iP at clinton is nothing to scoff about...

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I tend to think

that his secondary ratios, in particular his walk and strikeout ratios, given his age and level, are what lead to his high ranking in that crowd. Plus BA (or one of their writers anyway) did have him in their top 100 at midseason.

And I don't think that's something that should be discounted either. Guys like James Shields, who flew below the radar until continuing to perform to that level at the highest minor league levels, are a good lesson.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

more than likely your right there

who has him in their top 100? he was good but i didnt think he was THAT good in the first half...

is his stuff that bad? that below average? i read somewhere (on here?) that his FB went from like 88-90 2 years ago to 92-94 this last year

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 1:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that it might have been

...Chris Kline who did their Midseason Top 100 update this year. Poveda and Whittleman both made that.

And if you read some of the current comments in minorleagueball.com's community top 100 diaries, you will see Poveda being mentioned quite a bit here in the 50's (which would equate to an average organization's #2 prospect range, 30-60).

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 1:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

As far as his stuff

I don't think it's a knock on his stuff necessarily that people closer to the situation rank him lower. It's just that, with some of the new guys with electric stuff, it doesn't stand out in this group. He's a great guy to have in the system though. I'd like as many Povedas in my organization as I could get.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 1:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i thought

that was the biggest knock no him - his "lack of stuff"

and how he got players out with stuff thta wouldnt transfer to the "upper levels"

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Poveda

Little soon to impose "make or break year" on Poveda, isn't it?

by Jamey Newberg on Jan 1, 2008 3:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That was my thought

A 20 year old struggling in high-A isn't the end of the world.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2008 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Less than two months older than Kiker.

by Steven on Jan 1, 2008 3:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

i didnt mean as a prospect or not, sorry

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 4:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm

interesting rankings to me:
duran over maxram
whittelman over poveda
font so far down
arias over phillips/jmj

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 1:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Font so low

...is the main thing that jumps out at me. I just can't see ranking him that low. Every indication we have (and we have a couple of pretty clear indications) says that the organization is quite high on him. He obviously has a lot going for him physically, and his performance in the AZL at his age was remarkable.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i am actually

really suprised by the arias/phillips ranking as well. REALLY suprised. would be interested to see JN's rationalization for that ranking (please lol)

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 1:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not

I think that you guys overrate Phillips some, in relation to the other players, and I don't see how Arias isn't one of the top 25 prospects in any system.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 1:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

which is part of the problem w/ having so much

depth

arias was in top 10/12 last year IIRC?

arias just needs to be healthy. where do you think he plays next year? (level/position)

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 1:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If he's healthy

I'd be shocked if he isn't Oklahoma's SS.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 1:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

how do you expect him to do there lol

show he deserves to be in the rangers top 15 or so prospects

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 1:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nate Gold and Steve Murphy

Those were the two that raised my eyebrows.

I'd put Mathis, Kometani and Brigham above those two, pretty easily.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

question

didnt brigham have TJ?

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 1:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

But he's also very young (won't turn 20 until February), got above-slot money from the Rangers, and was performing very well.

I'd rather have him than, say, Gold, who turns 28 in June, hasn't hit that well in AAA, and has no defensive value.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2008 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i agree with you

i was just asking if he had TJ

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 2:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed and

Kometani should be ahead of those 2 as well - Gold & Murphy are good org soldiers.

Two other guys I'd slide up a bit - B.Jones & D.Holland. LH starters - I'd take them over a few of the righties ahead of them (Reed, Pimentel, Galarraga).

by AZranger on Jan 1, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I had Beau Jones in the 20s

Worried about his health though.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 2:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Brigham

I had him in the 20's before TJ was announced.

by Jamey Newberg on Jan 1, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Arias/Phillips

What about their rankings really surprised you? Too high? Too low?

by Jamey Newberg on Jan 1, 2008 3:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

re: rankings

arias: BA and OBP the last few years:
2003 (18) - .266/.306 (A)
2004 (19) - .300/.344 (A+)
2005 (20) - .315/.355 (AA)
2006 (21) - .268/.296 (AAA)

so he did good until AAA where he did really horrible. looking at this changed my feeling a little about that...arias is probably in the right place then, cancel that.

phillips:

ramirez: highschool
hunter: 2-3, 2.55, .51 bb/9 and 6.62 k/9 (17 IP) in sopkane (SS) + 7-5, 3.87 era, 107 ip, 12 hr allowed, 96k/35bb - 2.94 bb/9 and 8.07 k/9
diamond: TJ
rupe: hurt
font: should be above all of these guys IMO
phillips: 11-7, 2.91, 6 hr allowed, 2.55 bb/9, 9.32 k/9, 43bb/157k, 1.2 whip this year at clinton

i think that phillips should be above rupe/diamond/hunter for sure. behind font. i thinnk it should go font-phillips-ramirez-hunter-diamond-rupe. i dont think that rupe should be ahead of font or that boggs should be ahead of phillips. i dont think that boggs should be ahead of JMJ either. without a doubt.

by knockoutking24 on Jan 1, 2008 4:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Font

You just don't like his being #24?

Or you don't like that he's behind certain players?

I love Font's upside. Love it. There's a long road ahead, though. I can't convey enough how raw he appeared to me.

by Jamey Newberg on Jan 1, 2008 3:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't seen him live

and I suspect that the BA handbook will have him in the range you have him. But if he's that raw, isn't the fact that he did as well as he did in a complex league all the more impressive? He had never played in anything but academies, and he's 17 months younger than Main. He'll still be 17 until late May in 2008. I'm really not a velocity hound, but his arm, body and performance despite very few developed tools are just great signs. I think that all of that adds up to too much to put behind other completely unproven guys and guys whose careers are somewhat in jeopardy because of injuries.

The biggest thing, though, that I wonder about is Luis Mendoza. I watched him several times at Frisco and of course in the majors, but I'm still not sold. I am sure that you gave his ranking a lot of thought, but two months of a sinker working well isn't enough for me to place him that high in this particular organization. I don't think that he projects as a legit major league starter, and I'm not willing to rank someone who I think is an interesting middle relief prospect ahead of someone with Font's potential, raw as he may be.

Having said all of that, I can't say that seeing him wouldn't give me the feeling that you get. And hopefully Mendoza will surprise me.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Mendoza - Galarraga

I've wondered what people are excited about in Mendoza as well. As far as I can tell, Galarraga has a much better track record, and much better stuff. I don't expect either of them to stick in a ML rotation, but AG seems to have the FB, power slider (several reports have it as a plus pitch) repertoire that could play pretty well in a late inning role.

I look at the strikeout rates for Mendoza (5.63 in AA and 4.66 minor league career) and have a hard time getting excited. Galarraga, on the other hand has a pretty good history of missing some bats (8.04 last yr in AA and 7.67 minor league career).

Juevos Daniels: biggest stones in the business.

by tricer on Jan 1, 2008 4:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Mendoza

I'm probably less of a numbers guy than most people who spend time on this board. I didn't expect a lot out of Mendoza based on his numbers, but when I saw him pitch, I did an about-face on him. He's no more than a 4 on his best day, but I think he has a good chance to be a big league pitcher, and soon.

He's one of half a dozen guys who I ended up moving up a couple spots just about every time I revised the list, which I spent about two months on.

by Jamey Newberg on Jan 1, 2008 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Mendoza

I believe during the season someone asked about him and what he was like, prospect status, etc.

And the best way I can think to describe him then and now is that he isn't going to impress you when you see him pitch but he manages to get the job done with a solid line at the end.

Mendoza is a solid #5 type pitcher and if the rangers don't sign a make good free agent i'd like mendoza to get a good shot at the last spot in the rotation.

Can you please Look into getting a less funny signature? That's sarcasm, btw. - Sharky

by rentz on Jan 2, 2008 8:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

WOW that's quite an impressive list !

2013 could be a very good year !

Josh Hamilton will become a superstar right before your eyes!

by LAMuscleFag on Jan 1, 2008 2:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

2011

I wonder if JD could move some of those lower level hot prospects for some AA or AAA guys. Sort of like what he did with Danks (not commenting on the merits of that trade just an example). It would be nice to have more higher level hot shots.

by outofnace on Jan 1, 2008 2:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Levels

Just be a little patient. Pitchers come fast, and the position prospects are not that bad, level-wise. In 2008, among your better position prospects, you'll have:

AAA
German Duran
Joaquin Arias
Brandon Boggs

AA
Taylor Teagarden
Elvis Andrus
Chris Davis
John Mayberry
Max Ramirez

HA
Marcus Lemon
Johnny Whittleman

LA
Cristian Santana
Engel Beltre
Julio Borbon

Not sure about everyone, of course, but the majority of the position prospects are not miles away. And you would certainly hope that Borbon would move to HA during this season.

The biggest weakness I see in the organization right now is how devoid of prospects the AA rotation will probably be early in the year. The big bulk of pitchers are pretty far out, but you can't trade most of the newer guys this year anyway (one year after signing date), and it's just not generally a good idea to trade quality for proximity. Just be patient.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 2:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Borbon

I'd expect him to start at high-A.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2008 2:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I did when they signed him

And I still hold out hope that he'll be ready for that jump, but it will be a big jump for a guy who barely played in short season ball and was clearly not ready to compete in the NWL when he did. Lots of big college position players do start in Low A.

But positionally it would definitely be good, since, if Borbon were to start in Clinton, you would have three true CFs as projected starters in him, Beltre and Paisano (if Paisano can win that spot). In Bakersfield I assume that Gentry would be the guy, sans Borbon, and I see guys like Fry, Herren, and Smith (clearly not CFs) as other possibilities for COFs. So from a depth chart perspective it would be good if he could start there.

Borbon's 40-man and option situation is a factor, I know, but what if he goes to Bakersfield and hits .235 .310 .390 for a couple of months? That would be a bit of a mess. If he's not clearly ready for HA, rather than risking that situation I'd prefer to get him off to a rolling start. He may just be clearly ready for the higher level though.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 2:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What about this

If he starts out in Clinton and has a nice year and then toward the end of the year jumps to Frisco. Basically does he have to spend time in Bakersfield or could he jump that and go from Clinton to Frisco.

by Steven on Jan 1, 2008 3:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not a fan of jumping position players past HA

The only time it works is when guys stay in LA past when they need to (like Kinsler). If he were to start in Clinton, there is no reason he couldn't move quickly to Bakersfield if he's showing that he's ready to move. I think that with a good year he could easily be ready to start at Frisco in 2009.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 3:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lemon

I might actually have him even lower than Jamey. What is it he does so well? Probably doesn't stay at shortstop. Doesn't have much (any?) power. Not a burner.

Sounds like a good baseball player. Left-hand hitter. Family pedigree. Definite prospect, but not he's a top guy.

by AZranger on Jan 1, 2008 2:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Age / level

And the fact that we gave him above-slot to get him out of his commitment to UT.

FWIW, Goldstein had him at #7 in the organization in February.

Miles changes his signature too much.

by Chase Irwin on Jan 1, 2008 2:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not buying that

They also gave big $$ to Sinisi. Not everyone who gets above-slot $$ makes it.

And Goldstein had Mayberry-Botts-Lemon 5-6-7 last year. He's allowed to make mistakes too.

Again - I think Lemon is a prospect - but I'd be surprised if he's more than a utility player. I'm thinking Craig Counsell if Lemon maxes out his ability. Valuable player on a good club, but just don't see the upside to warrant the hype.

by AZranger on Jan 1, 2008 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Good to see your mind's made up

while he has yet to turn 20.

Miles changes his signature too much.

by Chase Irwin on Jan 1, 2008 5:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you know?

He's the greatest scout who's ever lived. He's just wasting time here until he finds the next Brendan Fraser.

by brettgardner on Jan 1, 2008 5:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We're supposed to love every Ranger prospect?

What's wrong with what I said? Can you not make an evaluation on a player before he's 20? Why bother ranking anyone younger than 20, based on your suggestion that that's early to make an informed opinion?

by AZranger on Jan 1, 2008 9:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sinisi

hit .310 / .356 / .475 in Triple-A this year.

Exactly how is he the failure you suggest that he is?

by mjh on Jan 1, 2008 7:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

really?

is that considered good?

by ab03 on Jan 1, 2008 8:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take it.

by brettgardner on Jan 1, 2008 8:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We've already got it

Nate Gold .292/.347/.516

Juevos Daniels: biggest stones in the business.

by tricer on Jan 1, 2008 9:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sinisi/Gold

Here are the 2007 MLE's for both players:

Gold: 272 OBP/402 SLG (674 OPS)

Sinisi: 291/383 (also a 674 OPS)

For comparison, Jason Botts' MLE was 351/425 (776 OPS)

"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky

by RCCook on Jan 1, 2008 10:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Meh

He turned 26 in November, has little defensive value, and played in a hitter's park in AAA.

And he got high first round money to sign.

Maybe he turns it around, but the clock is ticking, and at this point, he's a bust.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2008 11:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh believe me

I agree. Perhaps I should clarify. "I'll take it" referred solely to those numbers, which, not knowing more, are pretty decent.

by brettgardner on Jan 2, 2008 5:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sinisi's in the same boat as Lemon for me

Poor use of the term "make it" in my previous post.

Should have said, not everyone who gets an above slot bonus is destined to be a big time player.

Sinisi strikes me as a guy who'll be a decent LH bat on the bench. I'd be surprised if he's an impact everyday player. Hopefully he gets over these freak injuries and proves me wrong.

Same thing with Lemon - good chance to be a big leaguer - but in my opinion I don't see the upside some people talk about. More of a utility guy to me.

by AZranger on Jan 1, 2008 9:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's weird having to defend Lemon on here

Grief, 543 pro AB's, largely against older competition, and you're extrapolating that a talented 4th rounder's ceiling is utility level.

I shudder to imagine what your opinion of Joaquin Arias must be.

Miles changes his signature too much.

by Chase Irwin on Jan 2, 2008 3:02 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Arias more than Lemon

Better performer at same age/level than Lemon - and significantly more physically talented. Faster runner, better defender, better arm.

Why is it ok for people to dislike the Julio Borbon selection, but I can't question Lemon's ceiling? I didn't say he's a bust, just that I don't see the upside some do.

Not sure why you have a problem with me on this one. Just an opinion on a player, much like every other post on this (and any) board.

by AZranger on Jan 2, 2008 9:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Where is Jason Botts?

What is the cutoff for ABs? How is David Murphy a prospect while Botts isn't?

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jan 1, 2008 2:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Cutoff

I think Jamey uses MLB rookie eligibility, which cuts off at 130 career AB's. Murphy only has 127, while Botts has around 250.

"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky

by RCCook on Jan 1, 2008 2:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Whether you go by MLB or BA rules, Murphy is a prospect and Botts is not.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 2:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

zywica - AJM

I was wondering if you two guys would care to post your own Rangers prospect rankings?

I was thinking of putting together a composite ranking using Sickels, BP, LSB community, Newberg, Hindman, and Jason Cole's rankings. Might be kinda interesting to throw together all these good sources and see what the composite looks like.

Juevos Daniels: biggest stones in the business.

by tricer on Jan 1, 2008 4:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'll post mine

but I think it would be wise to wait until later this month when BA's prospect handbook gets to us. Even though I don't always agree with Aaron Fitt, there is more depth of information there than anywhere else, outside of what Jason, Mike and Jamey do.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 4:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

do you have a preference

between Fitt, Sickels, and Goldstein?

And yeah when the BA Rangers rankings come out (Feb 4?), I'd certainly add that into the composite.

Juevos Daniels: biggest stones in the business.

by tricer on Jan 1, 2008 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

To me

Sickels is what he is. He goes into a different category fromm BA and BP. I put the least stock in what he does, not because I respect him less, but because less of his info comes from within the industry. BA bases much of their ranking on information obtained from league scouts and the organization itself. Goldstein is similar, but I think he's a little more limited in who he talks with. Also, each of those sources see most all of the players they rank, while Sickels doesn't see all that many. So I respect his judgment and insight, but just the mere fact that what he does doesn't tend to come from baseball puts it in a different light.

As far as Goldstein vs BA, I think that the resources that BA has gives them the advantage, but I'd probably as soon hear his opinion as Fitt's, and Fitt has been doing Texas for a few years now.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 4:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

In general

BA has a reputation for leaning towards old school scouting and values tools and ceilings, while BP typically takes more of a sabr, stats-oriented approach.

Is that a fair description of their prospect rankings as well?

Juevos Daniels: biggest stones in the business.

by tricer on Jan 1, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it used to be

but Goldstein comes more from the BA approach and is really dependent on scouting. Also, I think that BA incorporates more analysis than its reputation suggests.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

using stats

I think BA is beginning to do more analysis with the group of employees they currently have. I still think John Manuel and Callis are more scouting based for their sources but are are doing more to incorporate the sabermetric point of view.

by Brandon Wilson on Jan 2, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Btw

I understand that we'll be getting the Handbook in the mail before their top ten is posted on the website, fwiw. Callis has said that if you order directly from BA you should get the book sometime in January.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 4:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws. ~Rick Wise, 1974

by RangerMad on Jan 1, 2008 4:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I could do a ranking...

...but I'd prefer defer more to Jamey and zywica, because they have a much better handle on these guys than I do...

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2008 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

-1

I'd like to see your rankings, too, Adam. You have as much credibility as anyone.

by Jamey Newberg on Jan 1, 2008 4:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Even me?

by brettgardner on Jan 1, 2008 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, and

if you are wanting to compile an list of guys who cover/pay attention to the Texas system, I would include Bill Conrad who contributes on Jason's site as well.

But I perk up when Adam or Jamey throws out an opinion on a guy as much as anyone else, including publications. Just a certain level of good judgment there.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Adam for

President.

Ron Paul doesn't go to the gym. He stays fit by exercising his civil rights.

by miles on Jan 1, 2008 5:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

OT: Ron Paul

What do you hope his contribution is to the Republican primaries?

He has no chance of being the Republican nominee, but he has raised enough cash that the Republican party has to listen to him in order to retain his constituency during the general election.

Colbert/Colbert '08

by rooster on Jan 1, 2008 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

His constituency is young people and disillusioned Republicans. No need to worry about them--one group doesn't vote and the other won't matter. As for constituency retention, I'm sure vitriol for the Democratic nominee will be more than enough. Doubt that's enough to win, though. Looks like about at least a 75% chance a Dem wins at this point.

by brettgardner on Jan 1, 2008 5:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

pretty good minor league thread

going here.

Maybe we could take the OT stuff to another diary or something?

Juevos Daniels: biggest stones in the business.

by tricer on Jan 1, 2008 5:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

¡Vámanos!

by brettgardner on Jan 1, 2008 5:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I will

get introuble if I talk about that in this thread, I'll start a diary about it soon...

Ron Paul doesn't go to the gym. He stays fit by exercising his civil rights.

by miles on Jan 1, 2008 5:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's my top 40

Also, let me say, I struggle pretty mightily to rank the top nine. I think that they are the top nine, but it is just very difficult to place guys like Davis, Teagarden, Beavan, Beltre and Feliz. I continue to go with Hurley first because I feel most confident that he will be a meaningful contributor to a major league team for several years.

Eric Hurley
Chris Davis
Elvis Andrus
Taylor Teagarden
Kasey Kiker
Michael Main
Blake Beavan
Engel Beltre
Neftali Feliz
German Duran
Matt Harrison
Max Ramirez
Julio Borbon
Cristian Santana
Fabio Castillo
Wilmer Font
Johnny Whittleman
Neil Ramirez
Omar Poveda
Tommy Hunter
Warner Madrigal
Thomas Diamond
Evan Reed
Joaquin Arias
John Mayberry
Marcus Lemon
Armando Galarraga
David Murphy
Brandon Boggs
AJ Murray
Beau Jones
Josh Rupe
Zach Phillips
Carlos Pimentel
Derek Holland
Matt West
Gueris Grullon
Wilfredo Boscan
Jorqe Quintero
Brennan Garr

Ten honorable mentions: Jacob Brigham, Luis Mendoza, Jose Vallejo, Michael Schlact, Doug Mathis, KC Herren, Chad Tracy, David Paisano, Martin Perez, Miguel Velazquez

by Brett Perryman on Jan 1, 2008 8:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Martin Perez?

You really do like 15 year old hispanic boys, Z.

I never know how to rank the LA bonus babies until they at least come to America. I just base my opinion off of their bonus, making the assumption that the more expensive a guy was, the more highly he was regarded by scouts down there.

"God plays by his own rules, folks. And HGH is f***ing legal as hell up in heaven." -Andy Pettitte

by thedirkatron on Jan 2, 2008 11:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My top 10 fwiw

Eric Hurley, RHP

Chris Davis, 3B

Taylor Teagarden, C

Elvis Andrus, SS

Blake Beavan, RHP

Kasey Kiker, LHP

Michael Main, RHP

Engel Beltre, OF

German Duran, 2B

Johnny Whittleman, 3B

Happy New Year LSB.

by LtDan on Jan 1, 2008 6:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Switch

Kiker and Main and you have a perfect list...

Ron Paul doesn't go to the gym. He stays fit by exercising his civil rights.

by miles on Jan 1, 2008 6:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oc's Top 10:

Family
Music
Work
Women / Sex
Humor
Money
Writing
Rangers Baseball
Sex
Burritos

by oc on Jan 1, 2008 9:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Where

are the sandwiches?

"When one gets in bed with government, one must expect the diseases it spreads." -Ron Paul

by miles on Jan 1, 2008 9:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

A few names I didn't see...

I was hoping Jamey (I'm assuming the Jamey Newberg on this board is him) could tell us if any of these three guys were close:

Freddie Thon, 1B - According to Scott Lucas, as of December 24th, he's at .299/.369/.466 in the Colombian Winter League. He turns 24 in April and spent his first full year at Bakersfield in 2007. He definitely needs to work on his patiency (73 strikeouts versus 9 walks for the Blaze).
Ian Gac, 1B - According to minorleaguebaseball.com, he's 6'3 and weighs 240 lbs. His OPS for Spokane was .818 this year, but that might be misleading because his batting average was .237 and his OBP was .313. It could mean that he's got all the power in the world but has trouble hitting anything that isn't a fastball. In the Hawaii Winter League, he did have an impressive line of .303/.379/.560. While in the 50th state, he had 7 bombs in 109 at bats. He's 22 (turns 23 in August), which would put him on the older side if he repeats in Spokane.
Jim Fasano, 1B - Was demoted from Frisco although his numbers weren't all that bad there (.284/.332/.466). The move was understandable because Chris Davis finished the year with the Rough Riders and the squad already had Emerson Frostad. Fasano, like Gac, is also a very big guy (6'5 and 230 lbs according to minorleaguebaseball.com). He turns 25 in July. I'm wondering where he fits this year.

by YourNameHere on Jan 2, 2008 12:47 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

None

None were close for me.

by Jamey Newberg on Jan 2, 2008 6:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Me neither

Well, I thought about Gac in the 60s or so.

I suppose I ought to throw my list out there.

by Lucas on Jan 2, 2008 8:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah definitely

by Brett Perryman on Jan 2, 2008 8:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We definitely need

a new #1. We only have like a half dozen lists with different #1s.

"As of now they're (The Astros) world series favorites. Period." - Sharky

by DJCahill on Jan 2, 2008 9:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

absolutely

I'd like to include your list in the little composite thing I talked about. Plus, I'd just like to see your opinion on some of these guys.

Juevos Daniels: biggest stones in the business.

by tricer on Jan 2, 2008 9:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

One more name for Jamey...

What about K.C. (Karl Christopher) Herren, OF? In Clinton, he hit .276/.364/.435. I suppose his 12 triples, not to mention the fact that he was an All-State wide receiver/defensive back in Washington, shows that he has pretty good speed, but his 12 for 22 record on stolen base attempts this year puts his baserunning skills in question. He is 22 (turns 23 in August), which makes him two years older than fellow 2007 LumberKing David Paisano, but one month younger than Chad Tracy.

Also, I was wondering if you have had any chance to evaluate Warner Madrigal.

by YourNameHere on Jan 2, 2008 3:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Herren

Herren had a solid year but truthfully, it was just a good first half. He's now had four pro seasons and hasn't gotten out of Low A. Still has a chance, I suppose, but the odds are stacked against him.

Haven't seen Madrigal live but I've told a few folks who have asked that I would have had him somewhere in the 15-25 range.

by Jamey Newberg on Jan 2, 2008 4:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

PATIENCY?!

...WHY THAT'S OUR SECRET WORD... OF THE DAY!!!

by oc on Jan 2, 2008 9:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My Top 72

Eric Hurley, P
Christopher Davis, 3B
Taylor Teagarden, C
Kasey Kiker, P
Elvis Andrus, SS
Blake Beavan, P
Michael Main, P
German Duran, 2B
Matt Harrison, P
Cristian Santana, C
Omar Poveda, P
Engel Beltre, OF
Neftali Feliz, P
John Whittleman, 3B
Neil Ramirez, P
Fabio Castillo, P
Wilmer Font, P
Brandon Boggs, OF
Max Ramirez, C
John Mayberry, OF
Thomas Diamond, P
Tommy Hunter, P
Julio Borbon, OF
A.J. Murray, P
Armando Galarraga , P
Zachary Phillips, P
Marcus Lemon, SS
Joaquin Arias, SS
David Murphy , OF
Josh Rupe, P
Beau Jones, P
Warner Madrigal,
Brennan Garr, P
Carlos Pimentel, P
Evan Reed, P
Paul Kometani, P
Luis Mendoza , P
Douglas Mathis, P
Michael Schlact, P
Derek Holland, P
Jose Vallejo, 2B
Andrew Laughter, P
Jorge Quintero, P
Jesse Ingram, P
Kendy Batista, P
Manuel Pina, C
Tug Hulett, 2B
Daniel Herrera, P
Kennil Gomez, P
Jacob Brigham, P
Wilfredo Boscan, P
Geuris Grullon, P
Nate Gold, 1B
Emerson Frostad, 1B
Jonathan Greene, C
Chad Tracy, OF
Miguel Velazquez, OF
Robert Wilkins, P
David Paisano, OF
Steve Murphy, OF
K.C. Herren, OF
Michael Ballard, P
Miguel Alfonzo, OF
Benjamin Henry, P
Ryan Falcon, P
Emmanuel Solis, 3B
Matt West, 3B
Timothy Smith, OF
Johan Yan, 3B
Leonel de los Santos, C
Kyle Ocampo, P
Kevin Mahar, OF

Jamey has these guys ranked 10 or more spots higher than me: West, Mendoza, S Murphy, D Murphy, Solis, Boscan, and DRH.

I've got these guys ranked 10 or more ahead of Jamey: Ingram, Greene, Frostad (he's right, I have him too high but don't feel like redoing it), Laughter, Kometani, Ballard, Pina, B Jones.

We ranked these guys exactly the same, even though we made our lists without discussing them: Holland, Brigham, Quintero, Teagarden, Diamond.

I should have Lueke on there near the bottom, and I completely forgot Martin Perez. I deliberately left off the guys with visa problems.

It never would've occurred to me to rank Feliz 1st.

I sometimes wished the Rangers had moved to Arlington in 1930.

by Lucas on Jan 2, 2008 5:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

spring training

are you and Jamey both going to spring training this year? I'm sure many here and over at NMLR are looking forward to getting your (both of you) firsthand impressions of the 2007 draftees and trade acquisitions.

Jamey posted above that he would have ranked Madrigal in the 15-25 range. Any special reason you have him lower than that?

Cranberry Sauce

by t ball on Jan 2, 2008 11:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs