A prediction

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 10, 2006 12:06 PM CST in News

Every year, there's a couple of contracts that get a universal "Oh my god, they gave him HOW MUCH??? He's not even any good!!!" reaction.

Eric Milton, for example. Derek Lowe. Russ Ortiz. Cristian Guzman.

My prediction is that this year, the two guys who get those contracts are:

GMJ, at 4 years, $45 million, and
Gil Meche, at 3 years, $30 million.

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Half right

You're prolly close on GMJ. I've come to grips with the fact that he's been ridiculously overrated by some teams out there and that someone's gonna pay out their butt for him.

But 3/30 for Meche? No freaking way. He won't come close to that. There's no way.

FWIW, a guy on Yahoo sports predicted Jeff Weaver at 4/36, which would make my head explode.

A Noble Spirit Embiggens The Smallest Man.

by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2006 12:07 PM CST reply actions

Meche

I hadn't given what he would get any thought, but I was startled at that prediction. I certainly hope it's not us that gives him ten per.

by Brett Perryman on Nov 11, 2006 3:40 PM CST up reply actions

This is based on Kevin Brown's contract, and the thought that Matsuzaka's contract will be the starting point. Matsuzaka's contract equals the dollar amount fo the actual contract plus the posting fee.

Fake Teams - a Fellow SBNation Blog

by Fake Teams @ Lone Star Ball on Nov 10, 2006 12:33 PM CST reply actions

ill take that

over a 4 year 80million DM

by dubman @ Lone Star Ball on Nov 10, 2006 12:42 PM CST up reply actions

The more I think about it...

...the more I wonder why we'd even consider bringing GMJ back next year. If JD thinks he can get Wells and/or Hunter for 2008, there's no reason to give GMJ more than a one-year contract, and since it's pretty apparent that he's going to get A LOT more than that, we should just send him on his way... (Sorry if I'm overstating what many of you might have already viewed as the obvious...)

We've got the bats, we've got the gloves, we've got the Manager, now let's go out and get some pitching!

by rangersfan34 on Nov 10, 2006 12:34 PM CST reply actions

Based on his postseason

I've recently been hearing numbers beibg thrown around for the services of Jeff Suppan in the 3-year, $40 Million range. I find that unbelievable.

Almost as strange is news that JD Drew has opted out of his current deal with the Dodgers. He had three years and $33M left, and will instead go the free-agent route. Does David Johnathan Drew get offered more than that eleven mil per year figure....and who gives it to him?

by biff pocoroba on Nov 10, 2006 1:37 PM CST reply actions

According to some here

they are ready to line up to throw money at him. Certainly Boras thinks someone is willing to give him more.

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/200601019_after_pats_birthday/ --Kevin Tillman's tribute to Pat Tillman.

by DJCahill on Nov 10, 2006 1:40 PM CST up reply actions

Well....

He's a .286/.393/.512 career hitter who plays good defense. That's the type of player you should throw money at.

by BurntOrange on Nov 10, 2006 2:16 PM CST up reply actions

And injury prone

by Longhorn on Nov 10, 2006 2:18 PM CST up reply actions

Who

has had exactly one season with over 30 HRs (31 HRs in 2004), one season with over 150 hits (158 hits in 2004), and one season with 100 RBIs.

Outside of his year 28 season, he hasn't ever put up big totals, due to his inability to stay healthy.

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/200601019_after_pats_birthday/ --Kevin Tillman's tribute to Pat Tillman.

by DJCahill on Nov 10, 2006 2:39 PM CST up reply actions

Drew

I didn't realize you were such a fan of counting stats, but he is coming off an 84 runs scored, 34 double, 20 homerun, 100 RBI season in a pitchers' park, in which he got on base about 40% of the time and played solid defense.

by BurntOrange on Nov 10, 2006 3:22 PM CST up reply actions

Counting stats mean something in Drews case

because his inability to stay healthy is a damned large part of the reason not to sign him, and the low number of games he plays makes his rate stats irrelevent.

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/200601019_after_pats_birthday/ --Kevin Tillman's tribute to Pat Tillman.

by DJCahill on Nov 10, 2006 3:25 PM CST up reply actions

Okay....

Let's look at his Wins Shares for the past three seasons, compared to others on (or potentially on) the market, all of whom would cost more:

Drew - 68
C. Lee - 72
Soriano - 62
Burrell - 58

And that's including the effect of his missing half of 2005 with a broken wrist on a HBP.

by BurntOrange on Nov 10, 2006 3:36 PM CST up reply actions

The last 3 years

he's been relatively healthy, especially if you factor in the '05 injury as a "fluke" injury.

I don't see how 145 or 146 games played is low enough to make his rate stats irrelevent, either.

Plus, he's never played in the AL before, so maybe some of the nagging-type injuries could be alleviated by occasionally using him at DH.

I'm not saying the guy is a sure thing, but he's not the hitting equivalent of Kerry Wood either.

A Noble Spirit Embiggens The Smallest Man.

by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2006 3:58 PM CST up reply actions

What were his counting stats

in those 3 years?

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/200601019_after_pats_birthday/ --Kevin Tillman's tribute to Pat Tillman.

by DJCahill on Nov 10, 2006 7:20 PM CST up reply actions

You're right

he's awful. His RBI totals are not high enough. What was I thinking?

A Noble Spirit Embiggens The Smallest Man.

by thedirkatron on Nov 11, 2006 8:07 AM CST up reply actions

Suppan and Drew

Suppan, at least, has been a pretty decent pitcher in his career. Meche hasn't been for some time.

And Drew I think, without question, will get more than 3 years, $33 million.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 10, 2006 2:11 PM CST up reply actions

Meche

There's no way Gil Meche gets 3 years, $30 million.

by BurntOrange on Nov 10, 2006 2:17 PM CST reply actions

per Keith Law

per mlbtraderumors.com

"- He seems very wary of Vicente Padilla's alcohol abuse.

- Law sees Gary Matthews Jr. as a "fourth outfielder who had an outstanding season," ranking him 35th."

by Longhorn on Nov 10, 2006 6:31 PM CST reply actions

Law es un bago del doucho

I doubt he is even aware the El Gregarioso's DWI was dropped for faulty racial profiling (latino in an Italian sports car)...

"Despite being post Revolution, do you have any idea of the writings of Tocqueville? Read the bible and get back to me with tacit consent." Booyahcaveman

by Brian Thomas on Nov 10, 2006 6:52 PM CST up reply actions