LSB Q&A with Keith Law
ESPN's Keith Law graciously agreed to do a short Q&A session with me recently.
Keith Law, as y'all may know, was a writer for Baseball Prospectus, and then worked in the front office for the Toronto Blue Jays before re-joining the media sector in 2006 to write for ESPN.
Law offers some thoughts on the direction the Rangers need to go, the Rangers pending free agents, and what a g.m.'s job really entails.
Some really good stuff, after the jump....
1) With Michael Young, Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira all eligible for free agency after 2008, and with Young and Teixeira having been vocal about wanting to play for a winner, the hot debate among Rangers fans right now is whether Texas should be in "win now" mode for the next two seasons, or whether the team should go into rebuilding mode and deal those three players for prospects. Given how the team is current constructed, the payroll constraints the general manager is working under (a budget in the $80 million range) and the way the market looks right now, which do you think would be the wisest path for the Rangers to take - be aggressive to win now, or strip down the team and start rebuilding?
KL: In that division, I'd be in win-now mode. I don't see the division title being out of reach for this club in the next two seasons, but they will have to bring in some pitching and some more offense (particularly right-handed hitters), and hope that Hank Blalock (who doesn't really belong in a sentence with Young and Teixeira right now) can recover at least part of what he lost after 2004.
2) If you were Jon Daniels, what free agents would be your top targets this offseason?
KL: I'm concerned that Carlos Lee's contract is going to turn into a huge albatross in about two or three years (assuming he gets a five-year deal or a longer one), but in the abstract, he's a good fit for the Rangers, who lean a little bit to the left now that they've added Catalanotto. J.D. Drew would fare well in that park, but the market for him is quickly getting out of control. If he's interested in playing baseball, Andy Pettitte would be about as good of a fit as you can find: left-handed, groundball tendency, possibility of a slight discount due to geography, finished extremely strongly in 2006.
3) Gary Matthews, Jr. - Gold Glove caliber centerfielder, or decent defensive centerfielder who is being overrated because of a handful of great catches?
KL: The latter. That's largely based on what I saw of him this year, but I remember seeing him a few years back when he was with Baltimore and could barely play a corner spot.
4) Which Ranger free agent is going to be most egregiously overpaid - Carlos Lee, Gary Matthews, Jr., Adam Eaton, or Vicente Padilla?
KL: Matthews, easily. At least the other three have some track records of success prior to 2006. Matthews was a fourth outfielder at best before '06, and as I wrote above, I don't see him as the defender that he's reputed to be.
5) Ian Kinsler and Gerald Laird - nice complementary pieces on a good team, or future stars?
KL: The former. Kinsler went from completely unknown to wildly overrated, and it was largely on the basis of his performance in low-A ball. I'm firmly of the belief that college products should hit extremely well in low-A, as it's populated by a lot of high school and Latin American products who are younger and/or less advanced than the typical college-trained org player. In other words, if a college player does well in low-A, that's what he was expected to do. And if he does poorly, he's a non-prospect.
You love to have these guys if you're a GM, because they're still productive and they're cheap (zero-to-three guys). But when they hit arbitration, their salaries can eclipse their values pretty quickly.
6) What would the average baseball fan find most surprising about working in a baseball front office?
KL: I think the average fan thinks that the GM's job is primarily a matter of acquiring the players, but in reality, that's a small portion of his job. Dealing with the press, with sales & marketing, and with corporate sponsors; managing the personalities of the coaching staff and clubhouse; dealing with agents, even during the season; crafting and implementing a philosophy for scouting and one for player development; and so on. It's a more complex job than most people realize, and it's a far more time-consuming one. One's ability to manage people and manage an organization is just as important as one's baseball acumen.
7) Mark Teixeira for Jeremy Bonderman - if you are Texas, do you make that trade this offseason? If you are the Tigers?
KL: I'm not sure I'd buy into Bonderman now; he looked so thoroughly gassed down the stretch and has thrown so many innings already that I wonder if there's a minor arm issue there beyond mere fatigue. However, if we assume that he's healthy, I'd be open to a Teixeira for Bonderman-plus deal.
8) If you were running the Rangers, are there any particular types of players or pitchers that you would target to take advantage of/minimize the disadvantage of the Ballpark in Arlington? Any types you would avoid?
KL: I don't think this is anything that surprising - I'd stay away from right-handed, flyball pitchers, especially ones who've shown sizable platoon splits, and at the same time, I'd have a small bias towards left-handed hitters with pull tendencies or capabilities. It's a good place to hit and a good place to homer, so tailoring the roster slightly to those factors is probably a good strategy. At the end of the day, however, you'll win with good players, period, regardless of the park, so it's important not to lose sight of that forest when you're looking at this one tree.
9) Most overrated Ranger player?
KL: Michael Young - who is actually a great player, but I think that his makeup leads to some overrating. Plus he's an average defensive shortstop at best, but if you ask a lot of fans and even a lot of baseball people, you'll hear a lot of praise for his glove. He's a good player, but he's not one of the best players in baseball.
10) Most underrated Ranger player?
KL: There's no good candidate for this one. Akinori Otsuka is more unknown than underrated, but he was extremely effective in '06, easily his best season in the majors so far.
11) Do you think Brad Wilkerson's 2006 season was an aberration caused by injury, or is he just someone who has a short peak period and a sharp decline?
KL: I'm going to go with injury, because I was a big fan of that trade from the Rangers' perspective, and have thought highly of Wilkerson's hitting ability since I saw him in AA.
12) Which was the worse trade - Arod and all those millions for Soriano and Arias, or Hafner and Myette for Diaz and Drese?
KL: Hafner, since the return there was really zero. The A-Rod deal was misguided, but it was also partially motivated by finances. Giving Hafner away for a pile of wet socks was just a head-in-the-sand refusal to see the talent right under their own noses.
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27 comments
Comments
good Q&A
most of his points seem pretty accurate, might disagree with him on a few others, but thanks for doing this nevertheless.
by tdi1985 on Nov 20, 2006 12:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Good interview, Adam
by trza on Nov 20, 2006 12:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
by WyoRanger on Nov 20, 2006 12:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good Talk, See You Out There
However, I have to disagree with a couple issues.
I don't think Michael Young is overrated at all...here's a guy who is good for 200+ hits and close to 20 HRs and 100 RBIs every year. He's a solid defender...nothing special, but he won't kill you. Add that to the character thing, and you have, in my opinion, a top 15 player in the league.
I also disagree that Kinsler and Laird are just "good complementary pieces". I think Laird has the chance to be a top 5 catcher in the league. He's a good defensive catcher who can hit for a little bit of pop and a little bit of average. Kinsler has a chance to be a very good player, but will probably be a career .290 hitter. That said...I love 'em both.
Great interview, AJM.
by ghtd36 on Nov 20, 2006 12:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
His point was sort of that MY is overrated as a defender, which really isn't the truth either. He's pretty much given the credit he deserves at the position. What I typically hear is people compliment his arm (which seems okay to do), they don't brag too much about his range.
In the end, I think he is underrated, which is why people like the Boston Globe can get away with talking about MY like he is an easy target to pry away from the Rangers. And most of their readers will be none-the-wiser.
by tdi1985 on Nov 20, 2006 1:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, thanx Adam
Player TEAM POS G GS INN TC PO A E DP PB SB CS RF FPCT
1. Y Betancourt SEA SS 157 156 1374.1 701 251 430 20 95 --- --- --- 4.46 .971
2. M Young TEX SS 155 155 1356.1 747 241 492 14 113 --- --- --- 4.86 .981
3. O Cabrera LAA SS 152 152 1320.2 645 252 377 16 100 --- --- --- 4.29 .975
4. D Jeter NYY SS 150 149 1292.1 610 214 381 15 81 --- --- --- 4.14 .975
5. M Tejada BAL SS 150 150 1293.2 674 237 418 19 108 --- --- --- 4.56 .972
He has a higher range factor and fldg. % than any SS who played 150 games and (obviously) less errors........and his zone rating has improved dramatically.
I know we sound like homer's, but other than hit 40 HR's, is there anything MY can't accomplish ? He has made himself into an ELITE major league player by absolutely "out-working" everyone else. I saw it 4 years ago (when John Hart was trying to kick him to the curb) but even as a huge supporter, I'm flabbergasted.
Hopefully, the Ranger's will step up & sign him to a long term extension. His intangibles might make him more valuable to a TEAM than even TEX !
by tklawless on Nov 20, 2006 1:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
It's really odd that because he doesn't set off fireworks (2006 AllStar game the exception) some baseball people rate him as "lesser".
by Ed Coffin on Nov 20, 2006 1:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Range Factor
If you have a groundball staff that doesn't strike out a lot of batters, then the shortstop is going to have a high range factor.
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 20, 2006 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
M Young....
Even then, he's only middle of the pack in regards to ZR (which is the likely the best fielding stat that we have right now) among MLB SS.
If you want to say that he's among the top fielders in a pretty poor pool of AL SS, that's fine (or at least that he had one of the best fielding years in the AL).
He is not, however, a top fielding SS in the major leagues.
OTOH, I don't know how many people overrate Michael Young's defense (particularly among non-Rangers homers), so I don't know how valid it is for Law to say that he's overrated.
I'd probably take GMJ as most-overrated.
Req
by Requiem on Nov 20, 2006 9:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not much
by gp on Nov 20, 2006 1:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Well
by Ed Coffin on Nov 20, 2006 1:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Law
by Adam J. Morris on Nov 20, 2006 1:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Typo
by gp on Nov 20, 2006 1:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Keith Law?
by Longhorn on Nov 20, 2006 1:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Nice Q & A, Adam.
by Athos on Nov 20, 2006 1:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
MY; Kinsler & Laird
I think he's dead on with Laird, but I am hoping he is underselling Kinsler a little. Still, the Rangers have a terrific infield overall, one that I think can carry a fair to middling outfield if the pitching is good.
by t ball on Nov 20, 2006 1:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Re-Tool. Not Re-Build
I agree with Law that we're in the right division to compete. That said, ultimately we will need a good bulk of pitchers at affordable prices.
- Danks is athletic and committed. Please keep him people! He's still a kid. Maybe Diamond becomes the next Scott Champarino, but Left-handers take time. Kenny Rogers had low 80's speed until he grew up some mechanically.
- I think GMJ is fit and for real. Worth up to 3 years and $25 million. Nothing above.
- Looking at 162 game schedule, Laird scares me to death.
by 3Bagger on Nov 20, 2006 3:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Catchers
If Laird hits .240-.250 and throws out 35-40% of would-be base stealers, I'd be happy.
by T Coleman on Nov 20, 2006 5:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Diamond
Keep Lefty Danks at any cost. Diamond (Righty) can go any time, any trade. He reminds me of Scott Chiamparino (another Righty prospect in his day).
Danks is worth the wait.
by 3Bagger on Nov 20, 2006 3:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
BTW
Some interesting ideas thrown out there.
Req
by Requiem on Nov 20, 2006 9:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
I believe gp's accusation that I'm biased against the Rangers now brings the total of teams against whom I'm biased to 21 or 22. When I reach 30, I get a free waffle iron, so keep it coming!
As for the over- and underrated questions, I was considering the perspective of folks inside MLB more than any other perspective. Michael Young is beloved inside the game, so I picked him for overrated; he's great, but I think his rep exceeds his actual value, in large part because (as many of you pointed out) no defensive metric rates him as any better than average.
Thanks again for the praise and feedback!
by Keith Law on Nov 21, 2006 11:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
It says a lot...
by rangersfan34 on Nov 21, 2006 1:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You're just jealous!
j/k ;)
by trza on Nov 21, 2006 5:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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