On the Milledge/Blanton rumor

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2007 3:45 PM CST in News Comment 16 comments

There has been some discussion of late about why Billy Beane would be willing to give up Joe Blanton to get Lastings Milledge, particularly given the loss of Barry Zito and the ongoing question about whether Rich Harden can stay healthy...

Nate Silver addresses the issue, albeit from the other side (explaining why it would be a terrible trade for the Mets)...

Blanton for Milledge is one of those deals that I really don't want to see happen...it makes the A's a lot better in the long-term, and even though it might seem like the Rangers would benefit in 2007, I'm not even sure if that's the case, since, with the addition of Milledge, Beane might simply opt to stick him in the outfield right now, a move that could make the team immediately better by putting Swisher back at first base and letting Dan Johnson split time with Mike Piazza at DH, and cushioning the blow of the inevitable Milton Bradley injury that will hit at some point in 2007...

Beane could seek to replace Blanton by dealing, say, Duchscherer or Calero along with a prospect to the Phillies for Jon Lieber. The net result of all those moves would be to make the A's at least as good in 2007, and much better going forward...

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A's

I'm surprised Beane hasn't picked up Craig Wilson on the cheap to play 1B for them yet.

by BurntOrange on Jan 1, 2007 3:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I think it would help them this year... 21 years old and already major league ready, thats amazing. Could he put it all together and have a good year this year? I think so.

by miles on Jan 1, 2007 4:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

But...

...Lieber is not exactly a comparable replacement for Blanton.

Your Texas Rangers...laying the foundation for 2007, in a winnable AL West. Never thought I'd say that!

by RangerMoto on Jan 1, 2007 4:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about that

Lieber and Blanton had similar ERA+s last year, and Lieber would seem to be a good fit in that park with that outfield defense behind him.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2007 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe it's just fabricated perception...

...but Lieber has struck me recently as an overweight, past-his-prime, bottom-of-the-rotation starter who doesn't fool many hitters anymore. Blanton's upside is higher than that, no?

and, Lieber would be moving from the NL to the AL, where the hitters aren't slappies.

Your Texas Rangers...laying the foundation for 2007, in a winnable AL West. Never thought I'd say that!

by RangerMoto on Jan 1, 2007 4:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Blanton

He's not viewed as a particularly high-upside guy, which is (I imagine) why Beane is so much more willing to talk trade in regards to him. His ERA this year almost exactly hit his PECOTA projection ERA, and his PECOTA projections don't anticipate significant improvement down the road.

That's probably because his strikeout rates are so low...he's a guy who is going to be, most likely, of your innings-eater variety, a #4 starter type, rather than a top of the rotation guy going forward.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2007 4:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lieber is probably a better fit for A's than TX

with their outfield defense, he might be ok for them for a year until they figure out another option for '08.

Dammit Adam, now I'm worried about the A's again. Personally I think the Milledge hype is a bit early and overdone. I don't know why, but my gut tells me he's not going to be great. I have nothing to back that up really.

by t ball on Jan 1, 2007 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Why would Lieber be better

with their OF defense? Isn't he a big sinkerballer?

Seems like IF defense would be more relevant...

Penalty Box? DONT THINK SO!!!!!!! And i wish everyone could stop writing that crap cause its gay...SUPER GAY!!!! NYTXfan!!!

by Brian Thomas on Jan 1, 2007 6:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not

going to help Oakland if they trade Blanton and then Harden goes down.

by myoungfan11 on Jan 1, 2007 4:08 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

x

Billy Bean knows what hes doing, I am sure he would have a backup plan...

by miles on Jan 1, 2007 4:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If Harden goes down...

...they are going to have problems whether Blanton is there or not.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2007 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Milledge

Rule number one about New York prospects: there is always more hype than substance.

Beane should be too smart to do that. The whole point to his philosophy is buying undervalued commodities. And NY prospects are anything but undervalued.

Oh, and having seen Lieber pitch in person... I can only hope Oakland trades their bullpen depth for him...

by JBImaknee on Jan 1, 2007 4:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

New York prospects

If anything, there was not enough hype about David Wright, who is probably one of the 4 or 5 best young players in baseball right now.

Silver's post includes a five year PECOTA projection for Milledge, which is based solely on the numbers, not the hype.

I'd really like to have Milledge here, manning centerfield for the rest of the decade.

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2007 4:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wasn't there a Haren-Milledge rumor

a short time ago? I think it also involved another Mets prospect...

by t ball on Jan 1, 2007 4:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think....

...the rumor has been a "non-Harden A's starter" for Milledge, for a while...

I (and others) speculated it had to be Haren, because Blanton wasn't nearly valuable enough to give up Milledge for...

by Adam J. Morris on Jan 1, 2007 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Jason Windsor

I think the A's are high on prospect and Joe Blanton-clone Jason Windsor which is why they wouldn't be sad if they dealt away Blanton. Plus, they can easily slide Halsey or Kennedy into the rotation.

by Rangerchick on Jan 1, 2007 6:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs