I'm going to be going into hiding as of tomorrow morning, in preparation of taking my board certification exam on Monday, so this will be my last post until the 16th, with zywica holding down the fort the next few days...

Some things I wanted to mention/comment on/whatever before I disappeared...

The BoSox are benching J.D. Drew for game 1 of the ALCS, going with Bobby Kielty against the lefty, C.C. Sabathia.  Ballsy move there by Terry Francona...

Bill Simmons points out a problem with the TBS coverage of the baseball playoffs:

That's a good point, and part of why I think Chip Carey seemed so clueless about the teams he was talking about, and why Tony Gwynn and Bob Brenly (career N.L. guys) were doing things like urging Derek Jeter to bunt with two on and no outs, and obsessing about small ball...

This, however, is the highlight of Simmons' column:

How awesome would it be for Simmons and Dane Cook to get into a public feud?  The Battle of the Snarky, Post-Modernist 30-Something Frat Boy Humorist/Commentator Types, both of whom rode the Internet to prominence.  If they tried to settle it face to face, I'm trying to figure out if it would be more Joe Rogan v. Carlos Mencia, or more Jon Lovitz v. Andy Dick...

I also think it is interesting Simmons avoided the Adam Carolla namedrop that seemed inevitable in that paragraph, even foregoing the "my friend Adam" non-namedrop-namedrop that he did re: Jimmy Kimmel a couple of weeks ago...

David Gassko at THT has his MVP selections for each league, and also has a link to a downloadable Excel file that shows the plus/minus for every major leaguer based on...well, based on this:

He also links to this piece by Mitchel Lichtman, which gives the top 3 and bottom 3 fielders at each position, in each league.  And the UZR rankings, when you compare them to the THT numbers, highlight the problems still inherent in trying to evaluate fielding, even when comparing between different systems that use PBP data.

For example...Ian Kinsler is ranked as the worst defensive second baseman in the A.L. by UZR, at -9 runs per 150 games (although it is worth noting that UZR had Kinsler at -21 runs per 150 games at the ASB, which indicates how much Kinsler improved in the second half).  THT, though, has Kinsler at +11 on the season, making him a well above average defensive second baseman.

THT has Ichiro as one of the league's best defensive centerfielders, at +38 on the season.  UZR has Ichiro as the worst centerfielder in the A.L., at -14 on the year.  And the situation is flipped for Grady Sizemore, who is (by far) the best defensive centerfielder by UZR, at +26, and near the bottom by THT, at -14.  

What's particularly troubling about the split is the fact that you have two centerfielders, both very well regarded defensively, and these systems not only differ by an enormous margin -- 52 and 40 runs, respectively -- but differ on them in opposite directions.

To put this in perspective...Albert Pujols and Dan Johnson were about 52 runs apart this season, offensively.  David Wright and Ty Wigginton were about 52 runs apart this season, offensively.  

For what it is worth, centerfield appears to be where you see the biggest difference...when you compare shortstops, for example, THT, UZR, and John Dewan all seem to come to roughly the same conclusions.  Jeter, Ramirez and Young are around the bottom, Tulowitzki and Vizquel are near the top.  

Anyway, it is a problem, and I'll probably post more thoughts about defensive stats later on this offseason...

Richard Durrett advocates signing Torii Hunter, and reiterates the "he can move to a COF spot in a couple of years" line that we've been hearing...

Here's the problem, though...he doesn't hit well enough to be a quality offensive COF now.  You want to pay him $15 million per year for a guy with a career .271/.324/.469 line, and hope that his offense stays at that level into his mid- to late-30s so he's just pretty overpaid and an average player at his position, rather than vastly overpaid and a liability at his position?

The chances of Torii Hunter hitting well enough to be a good COF in 2011-12 are slim, and signing him with the thought he can play right field and be even average at that point is a mistake.

Mike Lupica thinks Derek Jeter should be getting more criticism for his lousy performance in the playoffs.  I thought so, too, until I read Jeter Fanboy #1 (aka Petey Gammons) and his explanation:

See, it wasn't Jeter's fault he wasn't clutch...his knee hurt!!!  So back off, hatas...

Jay Mohr still is terrible.

So is Stuart Scott.

Jeff Sullivan has a neat item up, although the end upsets me:

Yeah, I had my driver's license already when Predator came out...but thanks for making me feel like a fossil, Jeff...