LSB Community Prospect Project: Wrap-up
After 126 votes Evan Reed and Carlos Pimentel were separated by a single vote. Because the race was so close I decided to declare a tie, meaning Evan Reed and Carlos Pimentel will share the right to be called the Lonestarball community #29 prospect.
And, since that brings us up to 30 total players on the list, we are now officially done with this thing.
Final List:
1. RHP, Eric Hurley
2. 1b/3b, Chris Davis
3. SS, Elvis Andrus
4. LHP, Kasey Kiker
5. C, Taylor Teagarden
6. RHP, Michael Main
7. RHP, Blake Beavan
8. 2b, German Duran
9. OF, Engel Beltre
10. C/DH, Max Ramirez
11. LHP, Matt Harrison
12. RHP, Omar Poveda
13. (TIE) 3b, Johnny Whittleman
13. (TIE) RHP, Neftali Feliz
13. (TIE) RHP, Thomas Diamond
16. OF, John Mayberry, Jr.
17. RHP, Fabio Castillo
18. LHP, Zach Phillips
19. C, Cristian Santana
20. RHP, Wilmer Font
21. OF, Julio Borbon
22. RHP, Neil Ramirez
23. SS, Joaquin Arias
24. OF, Brandon Boggs
25. RHP, Tommy Hunter
26. SS, Marcus Lemon
27. RHP, Armando Galarraga
28. LHP, Beau Jones
29. (TIE) RHP, Evan Reed
29. (TIE) RHP, Carlos Pimentel
Making this list inspired a lot of passionate discussion about our farm system. And that's a good thing.
I hope y'all had as much fun voting and discussing this thing as I did running it.
Let's do it again at mid-season:)
Links:
1 recs |
70
comments
Comments
Some discussion starters
Who do y'all think we as a group voted in too high?
Too low?
Is there a player who missed entirely that you are high on?
by thedirkatron on Nov 10, 2007 12:41 PM CST 0 recs
Mayberry
by jparks77 on
Nov 10, 2007 12:45 PM CST
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Funny
Mayberry does nothing for me.
Borbon gets hated on way too hard.
by thedirkatron on
Nov 10, 2007 3:06 PM CST
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My thoughts.
I'm beginning to rethink Harrison. He appears to be able to keep the ball down, a great skill. Maybe someone can teach him to K a few more guys. He could be low, but I'm not as high on him as the BA guy, and I don't think his upside exceeds Danks, unless he can learn to K a few more guys.
My breakout candidates for next year: Lemon, Feliz, Jonathon Greene, Main (breakout in that he'll jump into the top-10 prospect bracket)
by rooster on
Nov 10, 2007 1:08 PM CST
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Thoughts
Beltre
Beaven (hasn't thrown a pitch)
Main (just slightly too high although very promising)
Too low-
Duran
Harrison (should be above Beaven at this point IMO)
Boggs
Galarraga
Reed
by slimshadty12 on
Nov 10, 2007 7:10 PM CST
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Maybe somewhat surprisingly
Andrus
MaxRam
JMJ
Too low:
Harrison
Santana
B. Jones
My prediction for guys that we'll be saying "How the hell wasn't he in our top 30 last winter?"
Josh Rupe, Jesse Ingram, Grullon
by badradiorules on
Nov 11, 2007 1:33 AM CST
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Thanks for the effort
by jparks77 on Nov 10, 2007 12:41 PM CST 0 recs
Yeah, thx,
by shroomer on
Nov 10, 2007 2:13 PM CST
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no problemo
by thedirkatron on
Nov 10, 2007 9:53 PM CST
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Im a little upset
by NYTXFAN on Nov 10, 2007 12:51 PM CST 0 recs
I know
Projectibility...the greater your accomplishments, the less of it you have.
by hightowersmith on
Nov 10, 2007 1:02 PM CST
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I couldn't disagree more
by jparks77 on
Nov 10, 2007 1:17 PM CST
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Y'know
I still find the list very hall-of-mirrors when guys like Blake Beaven rank 10, 15 places ahead of pitchers that have already debuted (ie Mendoza) and some that have debuted and still project (eg Galaragga and Murray).
by hightowersmith on
Nov 11, 2007 3:19 AM CST
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well
by rentz on
Nov 10, 2007 1:54 PM CST
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There's a careful balance...
Now saying that, can you possibly rate Arias higher then Andrus just because Arias made it to the majors? Obviously not because that's not taking into account the fact of Arias' own problems and Andrus' higher ceiling.
I just think this list is a classic example of hype over reality. It's still a good list, it's just biased towards higher ceiling guys mostly regardless of what level they are at.
One more example that sticks to mind. Would you rather have 1 Boggs or 1 Beltre? Me personally, 1 Boggs and that's because we know what we have in Boggs and it can be beneficial right now while we don't know what we have in Beltre and it's going to take 3-5 years to find out. But would you rather have 10 Beltre's or 10 Boggs? Seems like the same question and my answer is the same but for different reasons. Chances are you are going to have 1-2 Beltre's stick at a productive to superstar level. Which seems to favor going with the Beltre's but you have to figure maybe 3-5 Boggs sticking in the majors in some role and maybe one hitting that productive-all star level but never superstar. I'll take the higher probability with Boggs cause you have more quantity in ammo through trade and it's easier to fill out a lineup when you constantly have guys who can contribute coming through the minors. It's a complicated issue and really there's no truly right or wrong answer but it's quite fascinating.
by slimshadty12 on
Nov 11, 2007 1:54 PM CST
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Personally...
Getting 1-2 superstars, and controlling them for 6 years at below market prices, is huge.
Those guys are a lot harder to find, and more expensive to pay, on the market than the Boggs-types.
by Adam J. Morris on
Nov 11, 2007 2:19 PM CST
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It's an interesting issue, slimshady
I would argue that it's more like 5-7 Boggs' though. If you've hit in AA, that is a legit bench mark for your resume.
At that point, like you say, a GM should be shrewd enough to be able to swing the extras into something resembling an all-star level player. Then, if Boggs were to continue to improve and somehow maximize his ceiling, he could possibly put up an AS season or two.
Then it becomes: are two all-stars (with one potentially being a pitcher) worth one superstar?
by Chase Irwin on
Nov 11, 2007 4:45 PM CST
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One superstar >>> Two All-Stars
Let's look at the Yankees, for example, because ARod was the first person I thought when I thought of "superstar".
ARod had a VORP of 96 this season. That's crazy good.
Hideki Matsui posted a VORP of 32, which is still pretty good (it would have ranked second on the Rangers), but it's exactly 1/3 of what ARod produced.
Would you rather have one ARod, or three Matsui's?
I take one ARod over three Matsui's, and I don't even have to think about it.
by thedirkatron on
Nov 11, 2007 5:34 PM CST
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I don't disagree
Maybe 1 in 100?
by tricer on
Nov 11, 2007 7:26 PM CST
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Yep...
by miles on
Nov 11, 2007 8:34 PM CST
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Probably more than that
I figured it would be more like 1 in 10, although 1 in 15 or 1 in 20 may be more accurate.
by Adam J. Morris on
Nov 11, 2007 8:43 PM CST
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True
Very low, I'm guessing.
by thedirkatron on
Nov 11, 2007 9:43 PM CST
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yeah, low
I'm just curious what people would say are the odds that a 17 year old like Engel Beltre actually becomes a ML superstar, say on the level of Sizemore or Beltran. Pure guesswork on my part, but it doesn't seem like it could be any better than 1 in 20 like AJM offered above. Those are really slim odds, but of course it is a better chance than you would have w/out Beltre in the system.
by tricer on
Nov 11, 2007 9:58 PM CST
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Well...
I think the chances of 10 Brandon Boggs becoming two All Stars is well less than 50/50.
In addition, with 10 Engel Beltres, you might expect to get 1-2 star/superstar caliber players, but you are also going to likely wind up with a couple of the Boggs-types you are referring to...a great young toolsy player can end up panning out like Jose Guillen, for example, not a star, but a solid contributor. Or could pan out like a Corey Patterson, a decent 4th/5th outfielder.
Here's the GCL top 10 list from 2000, btw, to give us a frame of reference (I picked the GCL because a rookie league is where the top prospects are going to be the really young, projectable types):
- *Tony Blanco, 3b, Red Sox
- *Adam Wainwright, rhp, Braves
- Deivi Mendez, ss, Yankees
- *Justin Morneau, 1b, Twins
- *Adrian Gonzalez, 1b, Marlins
- Yoel Hernandez, rhp, Phillies
- Matt Wheatland, rhp, Tigers
- *Grady Sizemore, of, Expos
- *Jason Botts, 1b, Rangers
- Omar Beltre, rhp, Rangers
by Adam J. Morris on
Nov 11, 2007 5:46 PM CST
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Interesting
In order to substantiate that, I'll have to do some VORP research [in terms of the value differential of the top pitchers vs. top hitters] to give a few frames of reference. It would be diary worthy.
Hopefully I'll get bored enough over thanksgiving to crank that out.
If anyone knows where I could find scroll lists of VORP without having to pay, a link would be appreciated.
by Chase Irwin on
Nov 11, 2007 8:42 PM CST
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FWIW, my list
- Hurley
- Davis
- Main
- Kiker
- Teagarden
- Andrus
- Beltre
- Castillo
- Beavan
- Duran
- Santana
- MaxRam
- Diamond
- Font
- Borbon
- Feliz
- Harrison
- Lemon
- Mendoza
- Hunter
- AJ/Boggs
- Poveda
- Phillips
- Whittleman
- JMJ
- Beau Jones
- Arias
- Brigham
- Quintero
- Ramirez
- Grullon
- Evan Reed
- Galarraga
- Velazquez
- Yan/West/Garr/Wilkins/DRH
by rooster on Nov 10, 2007 1:14 PM CST 0 recs
Thanks dirkatron
by boomer1 on Nov 10, 2007 3:12 PM CST 0 recs
thank you
by thedirkatron on
Nov 10, 2007 9:52 PM CST
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I wonder
by t ball on Nov 10, 2007 4:23 PM CST 0 recs
Harrison
I still think Chris Davis is too high. I'd probably have him in that same 6-7-8 range
This probably how I'd go:
1 Hurley
2 Kiker
3 Andrus
4 Teagarden
5 Main
6 Davis
7 Harrison
8 Beavan
9 Duran
10 Whittleman
11 Beltre
12 Ramirez
13 Poveda
14 Mayberry, Jr
15 Arias
by Brandon Wilson on Nov 10, 2007 5:12 PM CST 0 recs
I'm so Upset
I may need to cry in my wine, while eating Godiva, and watching anything with Shirley McClain.*
Thanks, dirkatron!
*=sub whiskey, chicken parm, and anything with female nudity-in that order.
by Rodney on Nov 10, 2007 6:13 PM CST 0 recs
+1
by jparks77 on
Nov 10, 2007 6:14 PM CST
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Thanks, Dirk
by BudLight on Nov 10, 2007 6:56 PM CST 0 recs
You're welcome
by thedirkatron on
Nov 10, 2007 9:52 PM CST
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I wonder if BGL
by NYTXFAN on Nov 10, 2007 7:13 PM CST 0 recs
He is
by miles on
Nov 10, 2007 7:37 PM CST
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Great work...
by Jamey Newberg on Nov 10, 2007 8:19 PM CST 0 recs
Thanks
by Ed Coffin on Nov 10, 2007 8:21 PM CST 0 recs
I can tell you right now...
by miles on
Nov 10, 2007 8:23 PM CST
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Wet blanket
by boomer1 on
Nov 10, 2007 8:25 PM CST
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Hey Miles
by Ed Coffin on
Nov 10, 2007 8:26 PM CST
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Shoe shining...
by miles on
Nov 10, 2007 8:54 PM CST
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Actually
But it won't be a good job. But folks will marvel at how young he was when he did it.
by DJCahill on
Nov 11, 2007 10:38 AM CST
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The shine
by tricer on
Nov 11, 2007 10:51 AM CST
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beltre
or is this just that you feel arias may be traded away so you need to find a new player to dislike?
by rentz on
Nov 10, 2007 8:55 PM CST
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I have
Because all the hype over him is "omg, he got the highest bonus for a latino player ever!"
The reason people are impressed is because he is young and latin...
There are MANY players just like him that are white, people just want to think he is so much better because of where he comes from...
If he was spoke english and was from the states, there would be NO hype around him...
And you can't say "But hes like 17!" Okay...Doesn't mean he is good.
by miles on
Nov 10, 2007 9:03 PM CST
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It also doesn't mean
by boomer1 on
Nov 10, 2007 9:08 PM CST
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No.
The reason why people hype about him is because he is a mystery, and trying to compare him to Barry Bonds or Sammy Sosa...
If he was born here, people would consider along with all the other out of high school players.
At this point in his career, he has not proved anything. At this point in his career, he has not done anything...
by miles on
Nov 10, 2007 9:16 PM CST
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So he is an unknown right?
by boomer1 on
Nov 10, 2007 9:20 PM CST
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I said
He is unknown, so why is everyone already calling him the next Barry Bonds?
by miles on
Nov 10, 2007 9:56 PM CST
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you said
by ab03 on
Nov 11, 2007 12:56 PM CST
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So...
You don't think a kid with his tools who earned a promotion to Spokane would have crushed the competition in high school?
Is your point that no one that young should be considered a prospect?
That's ignorant.
Justin Upton became a top tier prospect the second the D-Backs drafted him, and he hadn't proved anything at that point. He was just like Beltre. He wasn't "white", he spoke English, and he hadn't "proven anything".
Was it dumb to consider him a prospect at that point?
by thedirkatron on
Nov 10, 2007 9:50 PM CST
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Upton
AVG OBP SLG
.263 .343 .413
by miles on
Nov 10, 2007 9:55 PM CST
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JustinUpton signed too late to play his first year
And yet people still rated him highly.
Why was that, Miles?
He hadn't "proven anything" according to your warped definition of what that means.
by thedirkatron on
Nov 10, 2007 10:01 PM CST
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Because
by miles on
Nov 10, 2007 10:08 PM CST
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And when did Upton do this?
So you're saying high school is more impressive than the AZL?
Really, Miles?
I mean... really?
And listen, kid, I'm not saying Beltre is as god a prospect as Upton was. He's not. Upton had truly special tools.
But how can you say that we shouldn't rate someone as a good prospect before they prove anything, and then say that people were right to rate Justin Upton highly when the only thing he had going for him was tools?
by thedirkatron on
Nov 10, 2007 10:13 PM CST
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Upton had good tools.
What does Beltre do so well then? Becasue he hasn't shown it.
by miles on
Nov 10, 2007 10:25 PM CST
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A .900+ OPS as a 17 year old in the AZL
The scouting reports on his speed, defense and arm aren't evidence of "good tools"?
Your argument makes no sense, Miles.
by thedirkatron on
Nov 10, 2007 10:50 PM CST
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actually
by Brandon Wilson on
Nov 11, 2007 1:36 AM CST
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Belre
AVG OBP SLG
.211 .250 .211
I think I know why Upton was a better prospect...
by miles on
Nov 10, 2007 10:00 PM CST
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Miles
You cherry picked those stats. Those were from his 38 ab's in Spokane.
You think that's more statistically significant than his .900+ OPS in 80+ AB's in the AZL once he came over in the trade?
He total numbers for last year were .243/.329/.433.
He was also a full year younger than Upton was when he put up the stats you listed for him... though I'd be pulling a Miles if I didn't mention that Upton was in Low-A when he put up those numbers at 18.
by thedirkatron on
Nov 10, 2007 10:10 PM CST
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give it up, Miles
by t ball on
Nov 11, 2007 12:25 PM CST
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LEAVE MILES ALONE
by hurlerhurley on
Nov 13, 2007 12:47 AM CST
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To be fair
by Ed Coffin on
Nov 10, 2007 9:32 PM CST
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He does speak English
But to know that you'd actually have to do some research rather than just randomly choosing guys to hate.
by thedirkatron on
Nov 10, 2007 9:45 PM CST
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Beltre
by JasonCole on
Nov 10, 2007 10:04 PM CST
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Question
Such as?
Keep in mind, if he were in the States, he'd be a high school senior right now, and eligible to be drafted in 2008.
by Adam J. Morris on
Nov 10, 2007 10:51 PM CST
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