Probabilistic Model of Range and Center Field Defense

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 12, 2007 4:41 PM CST in News Comment 20 comments

David Pinto has the 2007 figures for his Probabilistic Model of Range up for centerfielders.

What is PMR? Pinto explains, in a 2005 post:

I calculate the probability of a ball being turned into an out based on six parameters:

Direction of hit (a vector).
The type of hit (Fly, ground, line drive, bunt).
How hard the ball was hit (slow, medium, hard).
The park.
The handedness of the pitcher.
The handedness of the batter.
For each ball in play, the program sums the probability of that ball being turned into an out, and that gives us the expected outs.

So balls in play are lumped into different categories, and each category of BIP has, across major league baseball, an expected probability of being turned into an out. By comparing the BIPs for each player, and the probability of each BIP becoming an out, to the actual number of plays a player makes, one can evaluate whether a player is making as many plays as he'd be expected to make, which allows for an evaluation of his defensive performance.

Is it perfect? No. At least, I don't think it is. But I think this method gives you at least a decent idea of how players are performing, particularly when looked at in conjunction with some of the other advanced stats.

What jumped out at me on this list is that the #1 centerfielder (among players with at least 1000 BIPs) was Ranger trade target Coco Crisp. This isn't all that surprising to me, since Crisp's defensive performance this season, by just about every measure I've seen, has been top notch.

Ichiro, Felix Pie, and Curtis Granderson were 2-3-4 on the list, and again, that is consistent with their respective reputations.

GMJ came in at slightly above average, and surprisingly, Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand at almost dead-even.

On the negative side, the Rangers had two guys in the bottom six, with Kenny Lofton checking in at 4th from the bottom, and Marlon Byrd at 6th from the bottom.

I've seen it suggested that it takes at least a couple of years of defensive data to really get a good picture for a player (because of the sample size issues), so I checked out the 2006 PMRs, as well.

Making a comparison, the data looks fairly consistent...Ichiro is 1st, Crisp is ranked high, Hunter and GMJ are in the middle, and Lofton is near the bottom. Interestingly, Grady Sizemore, who won a gold glove this year and who has a reputation for being a very good defensive centerfielder, ranked low both years, as well...

Anyway, I'd recommend checking out the lists, because there's some good stuff in there, and I'm going to follow up with some more PMR data for other positions tomorrow...but in the meantime, it makes me more encouraged about the idea of pursuing Crisp via trade this offseason...

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Kinsler.

He was ranked 6th on the PMR for second basemen. That's very encouraging news.

by Athos on Nov 12, 2007 4:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Heh. And Young was 5th from the bottom for SS.

But at least he was ahead of Jeter.

Maybe they should think about swapping Kinsler and Young.

by Athos on Nov 12, 2007 4:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Two items

The Rangers had fewer CF putouts than all but two teams, the Dodgers and Blue Jays. Interesting.

Who is Norris Hopper ?

'At Georgia Southern, we don't cheat. That costs money and we don't have any.' Erk Russell / Georgia Southern

by Ed Coffin on Nov 12, 2007 5:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Hopper

I had to look him up. Drafted by KC in '98, signed by Cinci as a minor league free agent in '04, finally saw cup of coffee last year and actually got 300 at bats this year as a Red, held his own with a .759 OPS.

Tomorrow Never Knows

by t ball on Nov 12, 2007 7:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Andruw Jones

Maybe not the centerfielder he once was, but still good (ahead of Hunter, Rowand, Cameron, GMJ, Wells, Pierre, Edmonds and Sizemore each of the last two seasons). I think if there is any discount on him because of this season, you have to consider going after him. Even if you have to go five years, at least his bat would still play if he had to move to a corner outfield spot.

by Brandon Wilson on Nov 12, 2007 5:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Word

he more I think about it, the more I'd be on board with bringing Andruw ones in here so longas his salary demands weren't ridiculous.

Sign Andruw for center, Fukudome for right, Wood or Gagne for the back end of the 'pen, and call it an off season.

Ben Franklin. Gandhi. Jackie Robinson. Winston Churchill. Martin Luther King. Jesus Christ. And now... Dwyade!!!

by thedirkatron on Nov 12, 2007 6:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This offseason

I am really starting to think that the Rangers are not going to be players this offseason. I think they will pick up a couple of peripheral pieces to man 1B and CF and then make the best deal possible for Laird and bring in a veteran caddy for Salty. All in all, as entertaining as it would be for them to be highly active, I just don't see it.

Fire Ron Washington

by pblack on Nov 12, 2007 6:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I would be on board with that

If they could find a 1b to go along with Andruw, Fucko and Wood or the canadian humpty dumpty.

Git yer guns up...and blow yer head off. Boomer Sooner!

by boomer1 on Nov 12, 2007 6:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So,

would you be okay that Boston wants blalok, pending the sox dont sign lowell. I think Crisp will be a good center fielder but I think blalok can bring a descent return if we trade him. Im thinking boston is probably asking for Hank and Salty, and we're telling them Metcalf and Laird.

"I'd need a picture of Jamey with a shotgun saying "This is my Boomstick!" before I could see that one." DJCahill

by NYTXFAN on Nov 12, 2007 6:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Crisp is not worth

blalock and Salty sorry. I would rather go after another CF other than Crisp.

Git yer guns up...and blow yer head off. Boomer Sooner!

by boomer1 on Nov 12, 2007 6:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I really doubt...

...the BoSox are asking for Saltalamacchia and Blalock for Crisp.

And personally, I wouldn't give up Blalock for Crisp straight up. You are just opening a hole at third base that you don't have a way of filling right now.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 12, 2007 6:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hank

The problem with trading Hank right now is that despite the demand for quality 3B, his value is very low. He really hasn't been a very good player since '04 and is coming off shoulder surgery that could limited his success in the field.

The Rangers are in a good position with Hank because they potentially have him under team control for two more seasons at a reasonable price and can afford to be patient. Assuming Hank returns to form, his value to the team increases as well as his potential trade value.

"On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

by jparks77 on Nov 12, 2007 6:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, like Reagan

we are on the wrong side of the Laffer Curve, when it comes to Blalock ...

Sideshow ... onto 800. You can do it!

by Chase Irwin on Nov 12, 2007 6:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This Stat

How can this possibly be calculated without watching and logging every single AB in major league baseball? Is there a way to statistically determine where or how hard a ball was hit simply from a boxscore?

Fire Ron Washington

by pblack on Nov 12, 2007 6:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

stats

actually Baseball Info Solutions and Stats Inc. (and maybe others) both make an attempt to quantify how hard and what direction every ball is hit (along with what counts etc)... but, umm, that info is not freely distributed as they sell it to teams and other analytical entities. In fact, it kind of surprises me that GB, FB, LD percentages have become so readily available.

by Brandon Wilson on Nov 12, 2007 6:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

two things

Melky Cabrera is overrated.
Ryan Church falls within the top 1/3 of centerfielders under this metric. Again, I think he should be a trade target of the Rangers.

But that river of tears has dried for all of us.

by trza on Nov 12, 2007 6:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Church

While we're at it, maybe we could get the Nats to send over Nick Johnson too.

Fire Ron Washington

by pblack on Nov 12, 2007 6:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably could get

Johnson a lot easier.

Git yer guns up...and blow yer head off. Boomer Sooner!

by boomer1 on Nov 12, 2007 6:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Church

He was in the bottom third in 2006.

by Adam J. Morris on Nov 12, 2007 6:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

That seems more reasonable. For the record, I'd be in favor of targeting Chuch for a corner outfield spot, but the fact that he can hold his own in centerfield makes him that much more desirable.

But that river of tears has dried for all of us.

by trza on Nov 13, 2007 9:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs