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Murray Chass: Statheads ruining baseball for real fans

Murray Chass of the New York Times has figured out what is stalling baseball's growth, what is alienating fans and driving people away from the game.

Not steroids, not competitive imbalance, not free agency, not any of the usual suspects writers throw out there...

It is those damn statheads:

Statistics mongers promoting VORP and other new-age baseball statistics.

I receive a daily e-mail message from Baseball Prospectus, an electronic publication filled with articles and information about statistics, mostly statistics that only stats mongers can love.

To me, VORP epitomized the new-age nonsense. For the longest time, I had no idea what VORP meant and didn't care enough to go to any great lengths to find out. I asked some colleagues whose work I respect, and they didn't know what it meant either.

Finally, not long ago, I came across VORP spelled out. It stands for value over replacement player. How thrilling. How absurd. Value over replacement player. Don't ask what it means. I don't know.

I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that's their prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans' enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein.

People play baseball. Numbers don't.

Damn you, statheads!!!  (Shake of fist)  By thrusting VORP on unsuspecting fans, you are robbing them of being able to enjoy the "human element" of the game!!!

I mean, you can't enjoy baseball unless you appreciate the grit of Darin Erstad and David Eckstein (what is it with these D.E. initials and grit, by the way?)...VORP is nothing compared to EAI (the Erstad Awesomeness Index), and you can't even measure EAI with numbers anyway...

Update [2007-2-27 16:46:6 by Adam J. Morris]: -- Fire Joe Morgan takes on this article, in a much harsher and profane way than I did. WARNING -- the link contains several uses of the "F" word...

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LOL
It's not quite that simple- I have two degrees in history with minors in English & poly sci, and I'm a stathead.

Still, that's a funny characterization. It reminds me of my dad (also a history major) bitching about all the engineers he worked with and how none of them could write worth a damn.

by RCCook on Feb 27, 2007 4:29 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

I'm with you
I'm a history major from undergrad, but had a good helping of economics, statistics, and calculus in grad school, so I can sympathize both ways. I think a good chunk of the anti-stats contingent is skeptical of data because they are intimidated by the math. On the other hand, I think some stats-oriented fans and writers can be intellectually snobby towards those who aren't inclined that way (played to occasionally hilarious effect on Fire Joe Morgan and at LSB, among other places).

by trza on Feb 27, 2007 5:31 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Stats-oriented fans/writers
I was going to post a comment about how inexcusably stupid a statement like "People play baseball. Numbers don't" was.

I mean really, WTF? No combination of incorrigble old codger and narrow-minded dumbass can rationalize getting paid to make assertions like that.

But instead, I wanted to agree with your statement about the snobbiness of many statheads.

For example, Joe Sheehan. That guy can be irritatingly sanctimanious. Smarmy, in fact. And whether his "new age" stats are sound or not, the fact is, he probably hasn't played competitive sports at a level higher than 8th grade. And that's relevant.

As far as I know, hardly anybody at BP or most of the other so-called stathead sites has played meaningful college or pro sports, either. Look at their bios, though, and they are some accomplished individuals. Smarter than most of us.

The obvious point being, as smart as these stats intellectuals are, sometimes I think they might ought to rein it in a little when they arrogantly piss all over intangible issues like clubhouse morale and the like.

     

Sammy Sosa is a shower-sidling meat-gazer.

by Brian Thomas on Feb 27, 2007 6:39 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

snobbiness
I think that sports journalists are even more snobby about being 'real journalists' instead of just nerd bloggers who can't get a 'real job at a paper'.  There is a complete lack of respect among most sportswriters for internet journalism, despite the incredible number of high-quality baseball sites and blogs out there doing good research and commentary.

I don't know any fans, though I guess there are some, who hate baseball statistics.  People either pay attention to them or don't.  Only sportswriters work up enough bile to complain about VORP.

I agree with you about Sheehan and some others, though, who completely disregard intangibles.  You can't put a number on everything.  Why was Patton a great general, because he had more win shares than Montgomery?  No because he was an ass-kicker at heart willing to take big risks for glory.  Why was George C. Scott so good in that movie?  Because he was as ugly as Patton and had that growly voice that sounded like he had just eaten a hacksaw, but I digress...

by t ball on Feb 27, 2007 7:21 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

BP
The only BP'er I know of who played sports at a high level is Will Carroll. He pitched a couple years at Texas A&M.

Not surprisingly, Will's also one of the less hardcore "stats are everything" writers on that site.

Some of the other guys may have played, but I'm not sure. Will, Joe, Jonah Keri, and Jim Baker are the only ones I've actually met.

But like you said, look at their bios, and you see a lot of MA's, MBA's, and even a doctor- Rany Jazayerli is a dermatologist.

by RCCook on Feb 28, 2007 12:42 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

There is a middle ground
I personally think VORP and others like it are crap.  However, that doesn't keep me from loving the game.

I doubt that BP just sends that guy emails out of the blue.  He had to sign up at some point.  Get off the mailing list or stop whining about the content they send you.  

Milk, milk, lemonade, around the corner fudge is made.

by Chris Martin on Feb 27, 2007 3:25 PM CST   0 recs

yup
i dont buy into vorp, etc but i do like other stats, obp,ops, etc.
to each their own, as long as you enjoy the game its all that matters
Pimps be damned, it's harder out here for a Rangers fan!

by rentz on Feb 27, 2007 3:47 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

This is exactly...
the point of half of the book 'moneyball'.
you either buy into it or you dont.

i use VORP as a comparison tool, but by no means to i view it as gospel.

by jasun on Feb 27, 2007 4:10 PM CST   0 recs

This quote keeps coming to mind
"That's the way it was and we LIKED it!"

-Grumpy Old Man

by tlt29 on Feb 27, 2007 4:17 PM CST   0 recs

Aren't grumpy old men all named 'murray'?
Anyone seen that episode of Scrubs?
When all else fails, there's always delusion. - Conan O'Brien

by mtex on Feb 27, 2007 4:23 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

heh.
IN MY DAY WE KNEW PITCHERS LIKE JOHAN SANTANA WERE 66.3% MORE VALUABLE THAN A REPLACEMENT PLAYER JUST BY LOOKING AT HIM. WE DIDNT NEED A FANCY SCHMANCY COMPUTER TO TELL US!!!

by jasun on Feb 27, 2007 4:24 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Also
Sound ruined motion pictures, and tape cassettes ruined music.

by Lucas on Feb 27, 2007 5:06 PM CST   0 recs

And Video
killed the Radio God!
"Everyone in the world thinks they know everyhing" - DStar

by Mike Simonek on Feb 27, 2007 5:30 PM CST   0 recs

Star
Texas Rangers: baby step to 2007. Baby step to 2007.

by WyoRanger on Feb 27, 2007 5:36 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Who says baseball growth is stalling?
All in all the sport is very healthy. I'd say the biggest "problem" is that the national playoffs fail to draw any TV ratings at all. However, I'm not sure if that can be helped. Too me, baseball has always been a boring sport if you dont have a strong interest in one of the teams playing..

by Sharky on Feb 27, 2007 5:36 PM CST   0 recs

Baseball
Is a mirror of the essence of American life.  It's like the rest of our society in terms of acceptance and adaptation to change.  I love a luxurious, high performance car.  Only now, they come with navigation systems that I don't use, bluetooth connectivity which I don't use, backup videocams which I don't use, vibrating heated and cooled seats which I can't afford thus don't use, extra turn signals on the outside mirrors which are neat but more a distraction than useful (I already know I'm going to turn here), chiller boxes to keep my drink cool which I don't use, trunk mats which are nice but hell my golf clubs spend time on the ground so what's bad about a felt floored trunk anyway, runflat tires which I don't need since I keep fresh tread on the ground and haven't had but maybe one flat ever,mileage left indicators till when I run out of gas which I don't use because I have to stop to pee anyway, and so on.  

The metrics of baseball are a constant learning experience for me.  I already know the fine points of the game, and appreciate them.  And I appreciate that nearly all statistics are more aggregated than predictive, but what the hell ... knowledge of VORP, ERA+, OPS+ add distinct flavor to the merits of players I already know are good.  Why reject them?  It's a matter in the authors' mind that something more definitive than "he's really good" detracts from the game?  OK, if you want to spend the rest of your days complacently idle and not learning.  Hey, when you quit learning, you just might as well die.  I'm not accepting either case so long as I can prevent it.

"When you're riding in a time machine way far into the future, don't stick your elbow out the window, or it'll turn into a fossil."

by Ed Coffin on Feb 27, 2007 5:53 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

He must be experiencing
a little writers block.

Here is where I stand on the whole "stathead" vs "old-school" debate.  I am not a stathead because I really enjoy watching the game and thinking about the strategy and the chess match of a live a game.  I am also not very good or diligent about researching and understanding the stats that I am looking at.  However, I love reading about stats and stat comparisons.  I admire that ability.

His blog, I mean article is dumb.  The everyday fan is not driven away by things like VORP.  They just ignore it.  People that don't enjoy stats are not paying attention to the "statheads".  If they were then the true fans would be the ones that have the deciding votes for All Stars and not the journalists.  Unfortunately the journalists have the ear of the everyday fans and that is why David "Professional DH" Ortiz is the starting first baseman for the All Star game.  The Yankees and Red Sox and there journalist lackeys are the ones driving away the fans.

Ephesians 1:3-10

by kwellborn on Feb 27, 2007 7:57 PM CST   0 recs

So, nobody understands what the stats mean
but the fact that they exist is ruining the game?

To the extent that some people use them as "proof" that one player is "definitely" better than another, I can understand his criticism.  It annoys me when somebody quotes 2-3 years of VORP like its a Holy Grail stat.  There's certainly parts of the game that are near impossible to measure (defense and clubhouse morale in particular).  Dismissing these factors as "made up" is as unfair as Chass's assertion that measuring VORP is a bad idea.  The guys at Fire Joe Morgan are probably just as guilty of perpetuating ignorance as the writers they blast.

Finally, I've always felt there's something elitist and disingenuous about quoting VORP, especially to a regular fan that's not familiar with advanced math.  Win modeling is the best way to measure a stat (i.e. - a stat is "good" if the team that has the higher number usually wins the game).  "Runs" is the perfect team modeler for wins because the team that scores more runs that its opponent, wins 100% of the games.  Therefore, you want to find players that will increase the number of runs that your team scores per game (and/or decrease the number of runs allowed).  Hits, actually tracks wins pretty well at 71%.  Batting average is actually, a really good statistic all things considered because it tracks wins at a 79% clip.  OBP tracks wins only 1.2% better than batting average.  The difference between Batting Average and OPS is another 5% of improvement.  Once you get around the 85% mark, the laws of diminishing returns kicks in.

Stats like VORP, WARP, and even RC only serve to tack on an extra 1-2% more "certainty" to the stat.  If you delve into the play by play data you can squeeze another 3-4% of win correlation out of the numbers, but again, you're really not talking about a huge leap in "truth".

My feeling is that VORP is an excellent academic exercise, but I definitely question the reasons for its growing usage.

------------
:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post

by jtts on Feb 27, 2007 9:06 PM CST   0 recs

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