Community Projections: A Summary

by benmor78 on Apr 12, 2007 8:15 PM CDT in News

Ask and ye shall receive.

	Avg	Avg '''σ'''	OBP	OBP '''σ'''	SLG	SLG '''σ'''	PA	PA '''σ'''
Blalock	.280	11	.346	14	.473	33
Catalanotto	.301	12	.369	17	.442	21	435	50
Cruz	.267	11	.329	18	.463	32	443	64
Kinsler	.290	11	.356	13	.475	18
Laird	.276	8	.334	12	.440	19	482	39
Lofton	.287	13	.357	16	.401	19	433	50
Sosa	.246	20	.310	25	.452	66	332	109
Teixeira	.294	9	.383	12	.569	24
Wilkerson	.250	14	.343	24	.431	36	418	102
Young	.315	9	.364	13	.478	18

	Wins	Wins '''σ'''	Inng's	Inng's '''σ'''	ERA	ERA '''σ'''
McCarthy	13	2	173	16	4.57	0.32
Millwood	17	1	208	8	4.18	0.28
Padilla	15	2	197	15	4.35	0.26
Tejeda	10	3	151	27	4.84	.50

Well, here's what the LSB community came up with in terms of average projections. The '''σ''' denotes standard deviation, which I don't have to explain to those of you who diddle your slide rules and see anthropomorphic EQA's and WARP3's running around on the field. For the rest of you, standard deviation represents grittiness and the ability to will a team to win. For instance, Rusty Greer's animated corpse would have a standard deviation of 1,000,000.

Just kidding, of course. Standard deviation is a measure of a spread of values. Essentially, in a normal distribution, about 70% of the data points will be within 1 standard deviation from the mean. About 95% of the data points will lie within 2 standard deviations from the mean. So, looking at the above charts, we see that someone who is an enormous question mark (which is what grammar and syntax nerds see running around on the baseball field instead of WARP3's), like Sosa, has larger standard deviations. The community, generally, thinks Sosa will hit between .226 and .266, with an OPS anywhere from .672 to .862.) Alternatively, the community essentially expects Michael Young to hit between .307 and .323, with an OPS between .811 and .873.

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Comments

bad ass

Great job, Ben! I didn't know you were going to include standard deviation as well. Much more illustrative. Thanks.

Sarcasm fever... Catch it!

by trza on Apr 12, 2007 8:58 PM CDT reply actions

outliers

Not to single anybody out or anything, but I thought it was interesting that Cahill and Martin are both outliers on the short end in all three of Michael Young's categories. That's what I would have guessed, given some of the conversations that occurred in the wake of Young's contract extension.

Sarcasm fever... Catch it!

by trza on Apr 12, 2007 9:05 PM CDT reply actions

Not to single anybody out or anything...

but I'm going to do it anyway. That's one of the benefits of the standard deviation... it helps to account for outliers.

by benmor78 on Apr 12, 2007 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions

yeah

Kind of a dick move maybe on my part, although I doubt that either of them will mind my pointing it out. I'll admit it's not fair to single out those two as outliers with respect to Young. I'm sure I (and most other posters) were an outlier with respect to projections for other players. I just thought it was interesting because it was an illustration of some of the debate following the Young contract.

Sarcasm fever... Catch it!

by trza on Apr 12, 2007 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions

Outliers

It's nice to see that my outlieing (sp?) is closer to the norm than some of the people on the crazy high end.

jtts - .331/.385/.513
Parman - .345/.390/.502
JBI - .330/.400/.510

Milk, milk, lemonade, around the corner fudge is made.

by LoneStarBallUser on Apr 12, 2007 9:38 PM CDT up reply actions

mine is his 2005 season

how is that "crazy high"?

------------
:) - Obligatory smiley showing I don't mean whatever mean
spiritedness is likely contained in the preceding post

by jtts on Apr 12, 2007 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions

yeah

I noticed that. It's interesting that by simply entering his performance from two season's ago, you are well outside the standard deviation.

Sarcasm fever... Catch it!

by trza on Apr 12, 2007 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Crazy high

I was comparing it to the projection average. It's more outside the norm on the high side than mine is on the low side.

Come to think of it though, that season was "crazy high" compared to the rest of his career.

Milk, milk, lemonade, around the corner fudge is made.

by LoneStarBallUser on Apr 13, 2007 6:24 AM CDT up reply actions

My numbers

just form a nice little bell curve around his year 28 season. Wont be the first time Ive seen that pattern on a player.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 12, 2007 11:24 PM CDT up reply actions

What's Jason Botts hustle factor?

How bout Gerry Laird?

Must be off the charts!

Dont be discouraged, global warming enthusiasts

by Sharky on Apr 12, 2007 9:23 PM CDT reply actions

Wow, Laird is off to a far worse start than Sosa

I should have known, since Adam hadn't said a word bout him and his greatness.

.174/.286/.217

That guy should have been traded to Milwaukee for pitching ages ago.

Dont be discouraged, global warming enthusiasts

by Sharky on Apr 12, 2007 9:25 PM CDT up reply actions

alternatives

There are presumably better alternatives to Sosa. There aren't any better alternatives to Laird. Laird's also not batting 5th. Completely different situations. I'm not in on Sosa bashing (yet) but comparing Sosa and Laird's situations is just silly.

Derek

Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!

by DerekSTheRed on Apr 13, 2007 7:43 AM CDT up reply actions

slide rules?

i think you may be a little out dated there adam. now days we use TI-89 calculaters. much better than the slide rule.

by sarnold on Apr 12, 2007 11:21 PM CDT reply actions

Adam

is a funny way to spell Ben.

Signature here

by t ball on Apr 12, 2007 11:51 PM CDT up reply actions

whatever

my bad

by sarnold on Apr 13, 2007 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions

Hey ben

Will you e-mail me the data?

by Dustin on Apr 12, 2007 11:58 PM CDT reply actions

Thanks Ben

I'm surprised on Cruz. He's only a little more varied than Catalanotto and Blalock. He was one of the most unpredictable guys on the team to me (and still is), along with Tejeda.

by Brett Perryman on Apr 13, 2007 12:52 AM CDT reply actions

If you have it all in a SS

can you sort for highs and lows for each category and the names associated with it?

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 13, 2007 7:25 AM CDT reply actions

That would be

cool.

Sarcasm fever... Catch it!

by trza on Apr 13, 2007 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions

also

if its in a spreadsheet, you could put it on google docs and we can all access it, although you could set a permission so that nobody could change anything.

"I want him focused on figuring out a way to beat that lefty's ass." - RW

by ab03 on Apr 13, 2007 10:44 AM CDT reply actions

I might do that later if ben is too busy

He emailed it to me. I haven't even had time to open it yet, but I'll try to get it done before game time tonight.

by Dustin on Apr 13, 2007 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Well

I use open office and am having trouble making a Google Document out of it. The only other spreadsheet I have on my computer is the basic Windows one, and it doesn't like Ben's document at all.

I'll work on it, though.

by Dustin on Apr 13, 2007 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions

Okay, okay, okay

I got it:

http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=djfk6rb_0d7rdn9

I don't have a lot of experience with Google Docs and don't know how to keep people from changing it up. I don't think they can without being a "collaborator", though.

If you want to be a collaborator in order to add formulas and such (NOT screw with the data), just look in my profile and there's an e-mail addy in there.

by Dustin on Apr 13, 2007 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions