Some linkaliciousness

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 13, 2007 4:35 PM CDT in News Comment 11 comments

A few things to throw out there this afternoon...

Kevin Goldstein has some notes, which include his thoughts on the dissolution of DVD.

Joe Sheehan compares Chris Young to Mike Mussina in looking at the new Chris Young contract. I think that's more bullish than I would go, but as I noted in December, Young is helped more by his park and defense than just about any other pitcher you are likely to come across.

This dovetails a little with the argument I've made in regards to Michael Young, with those who say he's not really that valuable because of his extreme home/road splits. My point is, even if Young is, for whatever reason, helped disproportionately by his home park, it doesn't alter the fact that that disproportionate increase in production at home is still going to help the Rangers win.

Similarly, Chris Young is going to produce better ERAs pitching for the Padres than anywhere else because of the great outfield defense and distant fences behind him. That doesn't make his performance any less valuable to the Padres; it just means that he wouldn't be as productive, or as valuable, in another uniform.

Keith Law has a chat session up, that is heavy on King Felix and Dice-K, but also includes some Vonnegut talk. I keep meaning to send in a question to one of Law's chats, but never see that he's doing one until it is over...

Jered Weaver is returning to the Angel rotation on Monday, just in time to replace Kelvim Escobar, who has been placed on the disabled list with "shoulder irritation.

And MLB will be auctioning off the #42 jerseys being worn on Sunday.

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Adam,

what are you basing the Chris Young argument on? Looking at his 2006 stats on ESPN shows that he had a 4.61 ERA at HOME and a 2.41 ERA on the road. He also started 15 games on the road and didn't lose any of them. Now,if he greatly benefits from having a great outfield defense then so be it. Other teams, including the Rangers, have the opportunity to hire guys who actually can play defense instead hiring washed up pseudopowerhitters. I really think that you ought to consider that just maybe park effects have a lot to do with the quality of players a team runs out. My best example would be some of A-Rod's Ranger teams. Those teams had atrocious pitching staffs but were loaded with great home run hitters. Combining the 2 means that the park plays like a long ball hitters paradise. It wasn't necessarily the park, but more realistically a perfect storm of players, park, steroids and juiced baseballs. Now some parks really are band boxes or are prone to giving up home runs. Philadelphia and Colorado are teams that play in parks that are out of the norm and for obvious reasons. You might be right about Young; however, the stats suggest otherwise.

by gp on Apr 13, 2007 5:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Adam...

linked a piece above where he argues that the stats do not show what you are saying. You can read his argument in detail by following the link. But, rest assured, his argument goes beyond "Young's home and road ERA splits" on espn.com.

by benmor78 on Apr 13, 2007 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then why

did he only give up 10 home runs away and 18 home runs at home in the spacious petco park. Hmmm. Could be that some people have derived the wrong conclusions based on the available evidence. I read that article you are referring to. I don't think the author really watched every Chris Young game he pitched last year. Do you? I know I didn't. I can't say that he really pitched better at home than on the road like the author claimed. I can look at the statistics and see the undefeated road record, the miniscule road ERA, and things like home runs, BAA, etc. Of course, the guy has a real astute point that he pitched 5 games in places like Dodger Stadium (those don't count) which is a pitcher friendly park. So lets all just pick and choose the stats that demonstrate our own beliefs and discard or ignore the ones that challenge them.

by gp on Apr 13, 2007 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm talking...

about this article http://www.lonestarball.com/story/2006/12/27/2178/2470

by benmor78 on Apr 13, 2007 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

in the above 2 rants you've pretty much ignored the bulk of Adam's article, which was how much Young was helped by outstanding defense.

by t ball on Apr 13, 2007 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Park effects

Park effects compare home and road performance.

So if the Rangers hit and allow a ton of homers at home, and the same ton of homers on the road, then TBIA will show as a neutral park (in regards to homers allowed).

If they hit and allow more at home than on the road, though, it will show as home run friendly.

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 13, 2007 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs