Some A.L. West stuff

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 16, 2007 2:14 PM CDT in News Comment 39 comments

You know, the good news right now is that, as expected, the rest of the A.L. West looks pretty mediocre. No one is running off and hiding with the division, and the first place Seamen don't exactly strike fear in my heart.

The Angels got pounded today by the BoSox, 7-2, with Ervin Santana giving up 6 first inning runs. The good news for the Angels is that Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver are supposed to be back shortly, which softens the blow of Kelvim Escobar going to the d.l.

Oh, and remember this?

Tom Hicks flew in here from Liverpool, England, on Monday, presumably with the $10 million he saved by not re-signing Gary Matthews Jr. this past off-season jingling around in his pocket with a few extra British pounds in his loose change.

What the Angels got for their $10 million was Matthews' usual spectacular defense in center field and a three-game sweep of the Rangers to open the season.

I'll let you figure out who got the best end of the deal.

* * *

Suddenly, the $50 million the Angels will pay Matthews over the next five years doesn't seem quite so extravagant.

After today's game, GMJ is now sporting a hefty .229/.309/.250 line on the season.

Which is why you probably shouldn't pass judgment on a 5 year, $50 million contract based on what a player does in the first three games of the season.

And the single most important player in the A.L. West divisional race left the game yesterday with shoulder tightness.

Rich Harden is saying that it is no big deal, and he'll make his next start (although it may be bumped back a couple of days), you'd have to think A's fans are a little concerned.

And a couple of Rangers-related things from M's bloggers...

Dave Cameron says that Michael Young now has the fourth-highest negative trade value of any player in baseball, surpassed only by Mike Hampton, Garret Anderson and Barry Zito.

And Jeff Sullivan comments on everyone's least favorite Ranger (for today, anyway)

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Comments

Holy knee-jerk

Kata is what he is, a mediocre bench warmer, and it's been funny in the last week watch him go from bench-god to pariah based on basically 2 games, Friday and Sunday.

by t ball on Apr 16, 2007 2:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's the deal though

I think a 4 man bench should be a MIF, CIF, C, and OF. If neither of your COFs can play CF, then your bench OF has to be able to play CF.

Right now I don't really see who plays 3B or CF.

I can see JHJ playing OF or MIF, and Stewart has catcher. Cruz or JHJ might be able to handle CF, but I think thats dicey. Unless Kata can handle 3B, or is better than JHJ in MIF/OF, I really don't see what he does for the bench.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 16, 2007 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I'm not saying

Kata is good, I don't think he should have made the 25 in the first place. I was just commenting on the wild swing in posts about him from Friday to Sunday. You're right, this team didn't really have a viable option for CIF in camp this spring.

by t ball on Apr 16, 2007 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Negative trade value

It's odd how Adrian Beltre isn't on that list somewhere.

by Arnold Babar on Apr 16, 2007 2:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

or Jeff Weaver

by t ball on Apr 16, 2007 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Weaver has a one year deal

they are normally easier to move than long term deals. Its still a bad deal, but I can see how it doesn't make the top 10.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 16, 2007 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beltre has 3 years left

at $12 million per? or something like that?

Another bad contract, but I can see it not cracking the top 10.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 16, 2007 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beltre......

he's still fairly young no? Just over 30 when the deal is over I think. So there is room for improvment. Young SHOULD be on the down slope for most of his deal.

by bdavison94 on Apr 16, 2007 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vlad Guerrero

Most important player in the AL West race, in my opinion.

by AZranger on Apr 16, 2007 2:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Not really

I think we all pretty much know what we are going to see from Vlad. He's going to hit .315 with 35 home runs and 115+ RBI. That's a given.

Harden could be a Cy Young candidate or make 10 starts. That is why he is so important to the race.

by Arnold Babar on Apr 16, 2007 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Different take on same term

If Vlad's hand had been broken by that HBP today, his loss would mean more to the Angels than the loss of any other player in the division to his team.

But yes, Harden is certainly more of a question mark.

by AZranger on Apr 16, 2007 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

MY

MY @ SS = Bill Dorn if he could hit.

.500 or bust!

by Jayslick on Apr 16, 2007 3:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Haha, wow

Cheney lurking in the bushes during Bush speech

by chief on Apr 16, 2007 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who is Bill Dorn?

by Arnold Babar on Apr 16, 2007 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Roger Dorn?

or Bill Doran

buffering....

by SteveP on Apr 16, 2007 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if I buy 4th highest

negative trade value, but it is certainly substantial negative trade value. Thats a lot of money, for a long time, for an .800 OPS SS who isn't a plus defensive guy.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 16, 2007 3:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yup

We gave a 16mm per year extension to a guy who seems to be an exact replica of Melvin Mora, right down to needing to switch to 3b in a year or two.

On the bright side, I think he'll be a plus-plus defender at 3b, with his arm and range.

You don't win friends with salad! You don't win friends with salad! You don't win friends with salad!

by thedirkatron on Apr 16, 2007 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would kind of like to see

MY at 3B and someone else at SS when Blalock needs a day off.

I doubt it will happen. However, I have no doubt that MYs future is 3B or COF.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 16, 2007 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wouldn't that be every day?

by BurntOrange on Apr 16, 2007 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

every day

a lefty is on the mound, anyway.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 17, 2007 3:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mariners writers

have gone a little weird on us. Usually USS Mariner and Lookout Landing are two of the better baseball blogs out there, but there is some odd over-judging Rangers players. I know MY may be overrated by some people, but he's still quite a good player who, lets face it, almost everyone would rather have than most anyone on the M's lineup other than Ichiro (or good Beltre, if he didn't have to come with bad Beltre...). And lets all be honest - offensively Ichiro and Young have been VERY SIMILAR the past several years...

Right now, if you were JD and could make any one-for-one trade with the M's - Michael Young for one of their position players; everything considered. Who would you take?

by JBImaknee on Apr 16, 2007 3:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If you include the contract

over half their players. MYs contract far exceeds his worth, and I'd take any one year contract in baseball back in return. That contract is going to be the gift that keeps giving.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 16, 2007 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeff and Dave

I think the two of them have similar arguments regarding their view of Ian Kinsler and Michael Young not being very good:

Kinsler and Young are disproportionately helped by their home park (that is, the normal adjustment you would give to a player who plays half his games at TBIA doesn't adequately reflect how much more it impacts them), and
Kinsler and Young are bad defensive players.

However, last year, at least, I don't think the stats bear out #2.

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 16, 2007 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Park effects

Why would TBIA disproprtionately affect the performance of two singles/doubles hitting right handed batters?

by JBImaknee on Apr 16, 2007 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

It would make more sense, to me, if they had similar BIP patterns.

But they don't. Young is a spray hitter, while Kinsler is a pull hitter.

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 16, 2007 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Young was

131 points higher in OPS last year and 139 points higher for his career at TBiA and Kinsler was 255 points higher.

So to some extent, it does seem valid.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 16, 2007 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Home field or park effects?

How do you separate TBIAs effects on a hitter from them just being happy sleeping in their own bed or hanging out in the nice cozy home-team locker room? There is a big difference between a player who is really good at home because of park effects and because of "just being home". I agree that both mean that the is flawed at some level, but lots of players have nasty home/road splits that have nothing to do with their ballpark.

At an extreme, if the H/R split is due to comfort rather than game style, the "flaw" isn't something to worry about as much, particularly in a kid like Kinsler's case.

by JBImaknee on Apr 16, 2007 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Park effects

So can we expect a similar article from Jeff or Dave on how all the Mariners' pitchers are overrated due to their park? Or is it just a case of Ranger-hating?

by RCCook on Apr 16, 2007 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha

nice

"Pimps be damned, it's harder out here for a Rangers fan!" "If you don't throw strikes first, you're last."

by rentz on Apr 16, 2007 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

It's only fair, after all. :)

by RCCook on Apr 16, 2007 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Articles have been written in the past about

Safeco helping our pitchers. It's been said many many times that flyball guys like Washburn,Weaver,Mateo,Woods,Sherill, ect. are helped by the park and would look worse in a less pitcher friendly enviroment.

So yeah, it's been said.

by Goose on Apr 16, 2007 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ian better get it together

on the road. This 4 HR in 19 AB, .316/.480/.947 stuff just won't cut it.

by Brett Perryman on Apr 17, 2007 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Michael Young's defense

Also... can someone summarize the statistics that show that MY is the worst shortstop in baseball defensively? This 'fact' appears to be common knowledge now, yet when I look at the numbers on baseballreference (FPs and RFs), he looks okay. I know they aren't perfect measures, so what perfect measures say otherwise?

by JBImaknee on Apr 16, 2007 3:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I believe

his reputation was based on the Fielding Bible's assessment of his 2005 season.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 16, 2007 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So one source on one season????

No good interpretation of a players skills looks at only one season.

Please.. there has got to be something more if everyone is going to claim that he's as bad as people are claiming. Or is this a case of Michael Young being one of the "batting average driven scout/fan favorites" who stat guys feel all warm and fuzzy inside when they can bash him for a failing at some custom statistic?

Give me something more than that. Where is the evidence from 2006?

by JBImaknee on Apr 16, 2007 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he was

greatly improved in 2006, and was around average. Thats just my opinion. So far, he hasn't looked that great this year to me, and it isn't helped that the defensive trio of Blalock, Young, and Kinsler all seem to lack range to me. It makes for big holes to the left and right of Young.

Of course, I have no way of backing that up. Defensive stats just suck. I'm just going by what I see in the games.

"The very fundamental issue is, they (Bush Admin) don't know where the hell they're going," --Ret Marine Gen. John "Jack" Sheehan after declining "War Czar" job

by DJCahill on Apr 16, 2007 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

MY's below average defense

MY's fielding stats

Compare with league averages (specifically ZR) during each of those year.

I'm not a big fan of BPro, but here's their stats on MYoung's D (specifically look under RAA - Runs Above Average).

Here's another person's methodology. To see how Young ranked compared to others, follow this link and go to AL IF RS. Pertinent information is under RSpt (total Runs Saved) and RS/150 (Runs Saved/150 games).

All these pieces of information say that Mike Young was among the worst 2B/SS from 2003-2005.

OTOH, they ALSO say that he did very well in 2006, being AT LEAST average. I DO remember an article about Young where he stated he wanted to focus more on his defense in 2006. It would seem like he succeeded.

That raises (not begs) a couple of questions, though, 1) whether his improvement is sustainable, and 2) whether his 2006 was flukish (i.e., whether how much his improvement was real or luck).

Req

by Requiem on Apr 17, 2007 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs