Jayson Stark on Andruw Jones: The Most Overrated CF Ever

by Adam J. Morris on May 24, 2007 12:27 PM CDT in News Comment 31 comments

Jayson Stark lays the smack down on Andruw Jones, and does an awfully good job with it.

He mixes in quotes from scouts with an intelligent use of statistics to illustrate that Andruw Jones hasn't been a great defensive centerfielder for some time, and isn't really a great offensive player.

Really good stuff, and I'm not going to try to excerpt the piece, because you need to read the whole thing to get a sense for it...

Check it out...

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Torii Hunter

Also, there's a tidbit over at MLB Trade Rumors regarding Hunter's future:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/05/hunter_a_fit_wi.html

Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 24, 2007 12:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ugh

That site is so painful to read with the black background. It's like staring at a Rothko painting times a hundred.

by hightowersmith on May 24, 2007 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

much easier on the eyes though

but the font's too small

buffering....

by SteveP on May 24, 2007 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rangers CF

I'd rather see them get a young CF they can control for a while, and use money to sign a corner OFer than overpay either Hunter or Jones. If they're going to trade Teixiera, they should be seeking a package that includes someone like Ellsbury or Milledge, along with a good pitcher and another position player of lesser value.

by t ball on May 24, 2007 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

what does PECOTA

say for Jones' salary?

by Longhorn on May 24, 2007 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

17mm this year

then 16, 15, 13 and 11 the following 4, which he's sure to beat (by a lot, probably) in FA.

They have him at a .301 eqa in both '05 and '06, and their fielding stats all show a pretty clear decline from his days as a "great" CF, to now being a very slightly below average one.

He's long been overrated as a fielder, but he's still been smacking the crap out of the ball.

"The Leader is good, the Leader is great! I surrender my will as of this date!"

by thedirkatron on May 24, 2007 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I heard Stark on the Mike and Mike show earlier

this week talking about this exact position and this seems like it would be an interesting read. Regardless of what Stark believes/proves though Jones will break the bank this offseason.

If you don't have fun it's your own damn fault.

by cgolden on May 24, 2007 12:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

By the way

I hate when people do this. Overrated by who? The media who is encompassed by people like JJT? Yes, when people get older, they do start to lose a step. He's been in the league for 13 years...

My guess? He's putting the most controversial (or creating controversey where there is none) of his chapters out there to get people interested, so they will buy his book...

by Longhorn on May 24, 2007 12:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I generally agree

but the article makes a pretty good case. Almost like Stark is saying he has overrated Jones for a while but now realizes this.

Anyway, even if it is to stir the pot, its still a good read. Certainly worth considering when deciding who to go after next off season.

Last in zone rating? who woulda thunk it.

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on May 24, 2007 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There could be worse stories

by the national media.

Heard today on the Dan Patrick show while button pushing at lunch:

"When will Derek Jeter be put up with the other all time Yankee greats like Mantle, Gehrig, Ruth, and Dimaggio".

I should have put that one up as a diary to discuss, but I lost most of my life force after hearing that.

Mitt Romney should "get out his small-varmint gun and drive those Guatemalans off his lawn" -- Sen John McCain

by DJCahill on May 24, 2007 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did people say these things

about Mattingly?

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on May 24, 2007 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

During his brief prime

some Yankee fans were probably saying it about him.

Mitt Romney should "get out his small-varmint gun and drive those Guatemalans off his lawn" -- Sen John McCain

by DJCahill on May 24, 2007 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could be wrong

but Stark's isn't saying this book is "baseball fact." He's giving his opinion w/ stats and reasons to back it up. It's really no different than reading a columnist in the paper. It is thier opinion for you to either agree or disagree with.

If you don't have fun it's your own damn fault.

by cgolden on May 24, 2007 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice article.

I've kind of given up on Stark, because 90% of his articles are about the Phillies (yawn) and his use of statistics in his ESPN articles often is less than appealing ("And guess what count their first homers were both hit on... 2-1 as well. Can you believe it! The similarities between Placido Polanco and Rogers Hornsby's two homer games on May 4th's are just too numerous to be coincidence...")

But this is good, thanks for linking to it.

by JBImaknee on May 24, 2007 1:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting but short on O analysis

He only looked at one season and concluded that he had the worst 50 HR season ever. Looks completely accurate, but what about the rest? Then again, this isn't the BP or THT annual we're talking about.

I'll bet Andruw's agent is enraged by this.

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on May 24, 2007 1:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agent=Boras

(you should really have a handle on all Boras clients)

As we speak, a pamphlet is being published on how Jayson Stark is illiterate.

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on May 24, 2007 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

koufax

he also says koufax is most overrated lefty pitcher.

props for calling out nolan though

Al Gore 2008 http://www.myspace.com/igotsculture

by gossamer on May 24, 2007 1:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Nolan Ryan

Not surprisingly Ryan makes his book.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/1572439599/ref=sib_dp_pt/102-2589927-7852102#reader-link

Not only does he make the book, he's page ONE.

You can read the entire Nolan Ryan entry on the above amazon link.

by tspeck007 on May 24, 2007 2:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

something to remember

overrated does not mean the player wasn't good, just that the myth around their excellence is either outdated (Jones) or they weren't quite as great as the common perception (Ryan).

by t ball on May 24, 2007 2:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't say that I agree or

disagree with Starks assessment of Jones because I haven't watched Jones play in a while; however, just exactly who is a better center fielder than Jones? I can see an argument for Hunter but who else is out there? Carlos Beltran? Who else?

by gp on May 24, 2007 4:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Better than Jones defensively in CF

Off the top of my head...

Curtis Granderson
Ichiro
Grady Sizemore
Mike Cameron
Wily Tavares
Aaron Rowand
Vernon Wells

There's more, I'm sure, but those are the ones I can think of right off...

by Adam J. Morris on May 24, 2007 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hunter Pence has the legs

Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 24, 2007 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

isn't

ichiro a right fielder?

Al Gore 2008 http://www.myspace.com/igotsculture

by gossamer on May 24, 2007 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's been playing CF

all this season after starting there late last season. And doing very well defensively, apparently.

by t ball on May 24, 2007 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cameron?

I know he used to be great, but he has lost a step or two as well.

Are you sure there are more guys that are better than Jones because you actually believe it and have seen it or because Stark says so and did some kind of voodoo statistical analysis to prove his point?

by gp on May 24, 2007 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"voodoo statistical analysis"

What?

by a bebop a rebop on May 24, 2007 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

must be one hell of a dropoff

he's had. I haven't watched him in a while, but Jones use to get the best jumps i've ever seen.

buffering....

by SteveP on May 24, 2007 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

Defensively?

Corey Patterson, Vernon Wells, Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, Ichiro, Mike Cameron and Willy Tavarez off the top of my head.

Guys like Juan Pierre and Johnny Damon have far superior range, but noodle arms, so I don't know about them.

Then you've got young guys like Felix Pie and Chris Young who are probably better, but that I just don't know enough about to rate.

"The Leader is good, the Leader is great! I surrender my will as of this date!"

by thedirkatron on May 24, 2007 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Torii Hunter

eom

by Topgun22 on May 24, 2007 4:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Jones

he's on TBS right now, might as well take a look.

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on May 24, 2007 7:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

About A. Jones...

I understand Stark's comments about his fielding being vastly overrated. So he, like many other players, has lost a step as he's aged. But I got the feeling (whether it's correct or incorrect, I don't know) that Adam was saying that we shouldn't sign him because of that.

But the truth is, Andruw Jones would be our second best hitter. He's also better than Carlos Lee, who a lot of people liked on this team and thought we should have signed to a similarly huge deal. Plus, even if he can't play center field for the next 5-6 years, he can still be a very useful player.

Basically, I don't know how you can be okay with giving MY a 5 year/75 million dollar deal when he's 31 and NEVER played Gold Glove defense, and then think it's bad to give Andruw Jones a 5-6/90-110 million dollar deal when he's a year younger, plays a position that is not harder than shortstop, and actually was the best defender at his position for sometime.

Although, I'm also confused why everyone is ready to get rid of a .900 OPS guy (Tex). A.Jones is an .850 OPS guy (.894/.922/.833 the past 3 years), which is certainly solid. But the only way it makes sense is if you are saying (much like with MY) that you'd rather pay your money to get good hitting numbers out of traditionally hard places to find them (SS, CF, 2B) than simply just pay the best hitters period (usually 1B, 3B, Corner OF, and DH).

by GhettoBear04 on May 25, 2007 8:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs