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Draft prospect names to know, part 1

Thinking of ways to preview the draft, I'm thinking that one of the things to do is to just make sure that everyone is familiar with the names we'll be talking about two weeks from today and understanding why some of us like or dislike some of those names. So I'm going to run through some of the players who we might see drafted with one of those five first rounders. First up, I'm going to look at maybe the top of the draft's leanest set of players:

College position players certainly do not abound early in the draft. Only seven are ranked in Baseball America's most recent top 50 prospects. If this were an NBA, NFL or NHL draft I wouldn't even waste the time looking at, say, Matt Wieters, since he would figure to go well before the Rangers. But since Scott Boras is a baseball agent and since MLB hasn't taken the steps that other sports have to make signing draftees less of an issue, guys like that have to be considered.

With that, here are eight college position players whose names you might want to know:

Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech

Wieters is generally regarded as the second best player in the draft, but because of his agent, Boras, people are projecting him lower. Jonathan Mayo yesterday projected him at #6, while Jim Callis, in his first round projection for BA, unfathomably slid him all the way past the Rangers to 18. Wieters is a switch hitter and a huge guy, 6-5, 230, and possesses a great arm. He's generally regarded as an asset defensively, and while he has consistently had a BA in the .350-.375 range and hit around 10-15 HR (though that's in 60-70 games), he's regarded as more of a polished power bat than a pure hitter. He does have promising BB/SO ratios throughout college, and his 307/.417/.535 performance in the Cape Cod Summer League should bode well. He's certainly thought of as someone who would quickly be major league ready, although so was Jeff Clement, and Clement is stuck hitting .218 in AAA two years after going third to Seattle. Jason Varitek is a name you tend to see him compared to.

Star-divide

Beau Mills, CIF, Lewis-Clark St.

Mills is primarily a bat, and a left-handed one. He has played some 3B, but doesn't appear likely to stay there permanently. His father is the Red Sox bench coach, so he does have more of a background in organized baseball than your typical NAIA player. His numbers are predictably insane, as he's stayed close to a .500 BA and is already over 30 HR with LCSC headed for the ten team NAIA WS this weekend. Mills looks like he's going to go high. BA ranked him 12th, but Callis projected him 4th. While some of the other mocks slot him lower, the fact that he and Wieters are the two premier college bats, combined with Wieter's situation, seems to guarantee him a spot in the top ten or so.

Julio Borbon, OF, Tennessee

Borbon scares me and figures to be right in the middle of Rangers 17th pick discussion. Callis projected him as their pick, and if you like the player, he would seem perfect, as a speedy (but weak armed) CF who could hit high in the order. Battling injuries, he's dropped about 30 points on his BA this season, down into Drew Meyer/John Mayberry Jr range, and almost as troubling, he doesn't walk that much, even in college. Another left handed bat, he has some pop but not HR power, and while he's fast, he hasn't stolen all that many bases in college, around 40 in the equivalent of a major league season. I just don't see it, and as some here have mentioned, he reminds a little too much of Meyer for me to even want to consider this. I will say, I haven't seen much of him, but his swing certainly isn't as bad as Drew's.

Corey Brown, OF and Matt Mangini, 3B, Oklahoma St

Mangini and Brown have seen their relative stocks cross this season, as Mangini would be seen before the Rangers (at 17) in most early and midseason mocks, and Brown wasn't really a consideration. Now, Mangini has dropped outside of the top 50 in BA's most recent rankings, and Brown is ranked within the first round. I'm guessing that Brown will be a popular name with Rangers fans, as he combines tools with a patient approach at the plate and good results (around .360 BA the last two years, lots of walks and 20 HR power). He hasn't played CF consistently at OSU but is regarded as someone who could stick there in the pros. He's also yet another left handed college bat, as is Mangini. Mangini has about two inches and a few pounds on Brown, and he's not the same caliber of athlete, nor has he produced the same kinds of results. He's been more of a .340's hitter, even when he was more highly ranked, and hasn't hit for the kind of power that Brown has. BA's profile on him says that he should be able to stick at 3B, but he doesn't sound like an asset there. The Cowboys are going to be contenders for the College World Series, so it would be interesting to watch one of these guys in that if they are picked by the Rangers.

Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida

Adam's favorite draft prospect is having just a great season, hitting over .400, getting on base over 50% of the time, and showing expected power as a senior, after he somehow hit .259 as a Junior. It's hard to reconcile his last two seasons, even with his nagging injuries, which is why BA only ranks him 20th and was only projected by Callis last Friday as the 27th pick. I think I'd be ecstatic to get him at 24. With the kind of contact he's making and the kind of power he projects to, he could very well be an offensive difference maker. He's the only one of the eight guys I'm summarizing here who hits exclusively right-handed. He also throws righty and at kind of a stocky 6-1 doesn't offer much defensively. I think we could find a way to fit his bat in though.

Brad Suttle, 3B and Kyle Russell, OF, Texas

Suttle and Russell rank 34 and 35 among BA's top 100 and are both draft eligible Sophomores. Suttle has some profile similarities to Mangini in that he's a 3B who doesn't hit for really big power and isn't a terrific athlete. However he has had better performance than Mangini this season, as he raised his average like 60 points and pretty much upped his rates across the board, and he's also a switch hitter. Suttle doesn't blow you away in any facet, but he does look like a major league player. Yet another lefty college bat, Russell has had a pretty incredible season in his own right, breaking UT's HR record and currently sitting at 27. He's a good athlete and has more walks than Suttle while only hitting four points lower, but his strikeouts at the college level are alarming - 60 in 207 AB, and as BA mentions in his profile, his approach and swing are question marks. These guys are going to be interesting cases, since they can always go back for their junior seasons (and Senior seasons at that), and they're not slam dunk first rounders or anything. Texas, like Florida, is favored to make the CWS, so there could certainly be some TV time in front of them (though A&M did avenge UT's recent sweep today in the conference tourney).

Up next we'll look at some HS position players.

0 recs | Comment 23 comments

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Looking forward
to some of the high school guys, and I share your concern with Borbon. I think the Rangers can get better value at 17. I also like a couple of the high school outfielders more. Wendell Fairley is a name that looks pretty enticing from the scouting reports on BA.

by BHill on May 24, 2007 10:15 PM CDT   0 recs

Mangini and Brown
I've been able to watch them a few times this year. I've also seen Brown develop over the past couple of years.

Mangini hasn't quite lived up to the hype he had coming in to the year. He's having a decent season (.338/.438/.554) at the plate. In the field, he reminds me somewhat of another Cowboy 3B in Josh Fields: he'll generally get to balls in his area, and has a decent arm, but tends to boot some balls that other 3B would get to--he has 14 errors through 55 games. From watching him, his swing is fairly smooth, and he is pretty patient at the plate.

Brown has had a terrific year at .348/.502/.751. He's also 20/23 stealing bases. He strikes out a good bit, but from watching him, I don't get the feeling that he's ever really just hacking away. Defensively, he's played right field because Keanon Simon, the Cowboys' CFer, is a bit faster with a bit more range. Brown's range is pretty good, though, and he seems to have a decent arm for a RFer. He could probably be had with one of the Rangers' three supplemental picks, if they choose to go that way.

by Outworlder47 on May 24, 2007 10:40 PM CDT   0 recs

Brown
From what I'm reading here, I don't see why he wouldn't be a great pick in the first round...

by hightowersmith on May 24, 2007 11:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think the two questions are
...whether he's really a solid CF and just how much of a hitter he is. If he doesn't make it as a CF and winds up being a GMJ type, you don't feel quite as jazzed. But he has quite a bit going for him.

by zywica on May 25, 2007 12:01 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well
His profile still seems solid, even if you have to slide him to one corner.

You have to admit, GMJ's offensive numbers (presuming you mean 2006 and 2007) aren't a disappointment in LF or RF.

by hightowersmith on May 25, 2007 12:12 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

What's a bigger steal.
Wieters at 17 or Teagarden in the 3rd round?
People rarely live up to their baby pictures.

by rooster on May 24, 2007 11:58 PM CDT   0 recs

Yup
While Teagarden was viewed as a defensive stud, there a lot of doubts about his bat.

With Wieters there aren't really any doubts.

"The Leader is good, the Leader is great! I surrender my will as of this date!"

by thedirkatron on May 25, 2007 1:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Kyle Russell
I've seen him play many times. Good kid and all, but, he may not be an ideal MLB prospect. As you stated, he whiffs, he's lanky, skinny, could be a bad wooden bat player. Great college player though. I hate to say no to such a good player. But, no.  

by 3Bagger on May 25, 2007 1:50 AM CDT   0 recs

Borbon
Why are people enamored with him so much if his defense isn't great, speed isn't great and he doesn't walk?  Is there some upside you didn't list?  Does he do anything really well?
Fire Michael Young and Ron Washington and Scott Feldman.

by pblack on May 25, 2007 7:36 AM CDT   0 recs

Oh he's fast and rangy
He seems like the typical rangy, weak armed CF. And he steals bases, but I mean not really at a higher rate than, say, Brown.

by zywica on May 25, 2007 10:14 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Wieters
If he's there at 17 and the rangers don't take him.... someone in the front office needs to be publicly beaten before a game :)
"Pimps be damned, it's harder out here for a Rangers fan!" "If you don't throw strikes first, you're last."

by rentz on May 25, 2007 8:12 AM CDT   0 recs

Position?
Is he someone a team would DH?

It's always a good problem, but he's obviously pretty blocked.  Even Teagarden's probably ahead of him.

by hightowersmith on May 25, 2007 8:54 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

position
i don't care if they need that position or not... draft best player available. he can probably dh, and would be a better catching prospect than teagarden
"Pimps be damned, it's harder out here for a Rangers fan!" "If you don't throw strikes first, you're last."

by rentz on May 25, 2007 9:03 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

or
you could trade either one when it got to that.
Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on May 25, 2007 9:04 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

6-5, 230
pretty big for a catcher (Joe Mauer), has he played anywhere else?

by t ball on May 25, 2007 10:25 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Idon't
know where else he has played, but they say he is the bes amateur catcher since Mauer, he is also the best college bat available this year.

by BHill on May 25, 2007 10:54 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

catcher
if he even has a chance to stick there it increases his value even more and I cannot imagine he'll still be around by the time TX picks.

by t ball on May 25, 2007 10:55 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

When drafting
in baseball, you are drafting for several years down the road.  The last thing the Rangers need to do is having any kind of need in mind.  

When this guy is big-league ready (if he ever is), who knows where Taylor Teagarden will be.  

JD may have traded him and MY for two spare outfielders and a bad AA pitcher by then.  

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on May 29, 2007 12:31 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

By the way
Looking forward to the rest of these...  Really great.

by hightowersmith on May 25, 2007 9:37 AM CDT   0 recs

Jonesing..
I am not a BA subscriber, and I have been waiting for some draft talk (even failed in my attempt to start a diary).
This draft is really big for the franchise, I can't wait until June 7th.
Good work Zywica, can't wait for the other installments.

by Topgun22 on May 25, 2007 10:39 AM CDT   0 recs

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