Thursday a.m. things

by Adam J. Morris on May 31, 2007 10:36 AM CDT in News

Well, so much for our winning streak. Although when you have John Koronka going up against Danny Haren, I don't think you're going to have a great chance of victory...

It sounds like Nelson Cruz is heading back to AAA when JHJ gets called up. He's clearly fallen behind Marlon Byrd in the pecking order, and Ron Washington isn't happy with his progress:

"I don't see him making the adjustments he should be making," said manager Ron Washington, who added that the club has made no decisions on what the roster move will be. "He's not hitting off-speed stuff. He's not been able to use the ability that we see. We'll get a gauge on where Jerry is and then we'll talk about any decisions."

The knock on Cruz, of course, has always been that he was Pedro Cerrano...he hits the straight ball very much, but the curveball, bats are afraid. If he has adjustments he needs to make, and he's not making them up here, he probably has to go back to Oklahoma.

T.R. Sullivan says Byrd is impressing since coming up:

The Rangers weren't happy with his defense in Spring Training, and that may have been the No. 1 reason why he did not make the team. The Rangers like what they have seen so far.

"Without a doubt," Washington said. "He's getting behind balls, and he's beating balls to the spot. He's not drifting after them. In Spring Training, he was drifting and not beating the ball to the spot. He is certainly playing better."

I believe I said this over the winter, but if there's a guy hanging around who could be another GMJ, it is Marlon Byrd. I'd like to see him playing every day in centerfield once Kenny Lofton is dealt, and until Lofton is dealt, I'd like to see Byrd out there in center anytime Lofton is sitting.

T.R. Sullivan touches on the Mark Teixeira rumors, saying that the hot one right now is the Dodgers being after him. I'd love the Dodgers to get involved...Ned Colletti, the Dodger g.m., came up under the Giants' Brian Sabean, who never saw a prospect he wouldn't trade for a veteran. And someone like Matt Kemp would be a nice addition to the Rangers' outfield mix...

The Detroit News talks about Mark Teixeira and a possible Tiger trade, acknowledging that it would make sense but dismissing the possibility of the Maybin/Miller package Tim Cowlishaw suggested. He says that the Rangers need to trade Teixeira because they won't be able to rebuild their "sorry pitching staff" before Teixeira can be a free agent.

The issue this brings to mind, though, is that, while the popular view seems to be that the Rangers need to trade Teixeira for pitching, I don't know that that is really the case. They've got four guys -- Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, and Tejeda -- pretty well locked into their rotation for a while, plus Eric Hurley looking like he should be ready at the start of next year, plus Josh Rupe and Kam Loe and C.J. Wilson, plus guys like Doug Mathis and Edinson Volquez still hanging around.

If the Rangers deal Teixeira, they don't need to target pitching. They need to get the best talent back in return, but if there is an emphasis, it should be getting a high-ceiling outfield bat. The Rangers need young guys who can play the outfield and hit well more than anything else right now.

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Byrd, Teixiera

If Byrd is still around when Hairston comes back, we should NOT see Hairston playing CF.

I think you're right about the pitching. I'd much rather see the Rangers come up with a potential long-term, young solution in the outfield, especially CF.

by t ball on May 31, 2007 10:36 AM CDT reply actions

Couldn't agree more

When I read that quote from the Detroit paper I just thought, "didn't they just rebuild the staff this past year?"

Lord knows the team is going to need offense when Teixeira's gone.

by hightowersmith on May 31, 2007 10:39 AM CDT reply actions

I think the jury's still out

on McCarthy and Tejeda. They've shown that they can pitch effectively, but also shown some Colby Lewis-iveness. Padilla, I think, will always be inconsistent, though a decent 4th starter (maybe 3rd). I would love to have two more guys that are very promising competing for rotation jobs.

Maybe eventually:

Millwood
James (per Atlanta deal)
McCarthy
Hurley
Padilla/Tejeda

by isaacbrock on May 31, 2007 10:41 AM CDT reply actions

Exactly

McCarthy & Padilla are hardly long-term locks in this rotation. Of course there's always the possibility of an injury to the other guys.

Teixeira should be traded for a super-pitcher.

Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 31, 2007 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions

They better be

Those guys better be long-term guys. We spent a lot of money on Padilla, who is the type of pitcher that can win here if they would play defense behind him or would score some runs.

McCarthy damn sure better be locked in. We gave up Danks and Masset to get him. He better be there a long time.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on May 31, 2007 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions

Just cuz...

...they better be there, doesn't mean JD shouldn't be working on a strong contingency plan. Chan Ho Park, anyone?

Unless this organization is cursed by the shadow of W. You know, the guy who doesn't believe in contingency plans. Only the best possible outcome is what we should anticipate!

Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 31, 2007 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions

Well...

I have a concern with the notion that Daniels needs to trade for pitching so we have a contingency plan if Padilla or McCarthy end up being busts.

I'm more concerned with having a primary plan in the outfield.

by Adam J. Morris on May 31, 2007 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions

I would be...

...more inclined to agree with you if:

a) McCarthy wasn't experiencing blister problems for the first time in his career.

b) Padilla didn't have a career-low ERA+ and nearly career-high WHIP.

c) McCarthy wasn't having severe control problems (which, like you said, might indicate the need for TJ surgery).

Those three things are pretty glaring indicators for the need of a contingency (or 2).

Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 31, 2007 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, but...

We have a lot of pitching depth already.

We don't have a lot of outfield options.

You are likely going to go into next season with a rotation of Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Tejeda, and Hurley. You've got guys behind them that are viable options.

In the meantime, you've got Botts, maybe, as your DH, and perhaps a Diaz/Cat platoon in one corner outfield slot, and no CF or RF (or 1B, if you trade Teixeira).

I'd much rather get a guy who can fill one of those empty slots than have a pitcher that you are hoping you won't actually have to use.

by Adam J. Morris on May 31, 2007 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions

Yes

But isn't there an issue with trading an impact bat for an impact bat? Doesn't that decrease the return on Teix? If a team had an extra good bat but a problem at first, you'd think they could solve that internally. What might go down is the Rangers trade Teix to a pitching rich team, then maybe trade Padilla to a pitching poor team with good bats. However, why wouldn't the pitching rich just trade directly with the hitting rich and solve both teams' needs and remove the Rangers as middle man?

But this is all speculation. What isn't speculation is that the Rangers certainly need a good corner OFer from somewhere. But there might be more than one way to solve that problem. I just think that the Rangers should take the best return they can get on Teix. The only thing that shouldn't be taken are middle IFs.

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on May 31, 2007 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions

True, but

Some of these guys will trade a couple of nice young hitters for a guy that they know is ready right now for the heat of the pennant race.

Also, we are going to be able to get two guys that aren't quite as good as Tex for Tex.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on May 31, 2007 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions

I guess I'm approaching this...

...from a "address your most glaring shitty contributors first" standpoint.

Therefore, where do the Rangers rank 30th in the league? Starters' ERA. And that's with a fairly healthy staff.

Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 31, 2007 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions

You're crazy

This rotation is pitching way below its potential, and those numbers will get significantly better by the end of the year. Meanwhile, we have an outfield that is playing pretty poorly and will most likely continue to do so, because there just isn't a lot of potential there.

If we have an offense that can't score more than 3 runs a game it doesn't matter how many pitchers you have. There are ZERO above average players in the Rangers near-term future in the outfield. You really have to address that now. Pitchers 1-4 meanwhile ALL have the potential to be average or slightly above average for the next several years.

by t ball on May 31, 2007 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions

That's the best argument I've seen...

...and I can agree with most of that.

Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 31, 2007 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Pitching depth.

We have a horrible rotation right now. The two vets are performing at a ridiculously bad level and the two new guys are about as inconsistent as they can be. The guys in the minors, with the exception of Hurley, are Loe/Rupe types that might make decent fodder to fill out the very back of the rotation. As you have noted yourself, the rotation has been the biggest reason this team sucks this year. So saying we're pretty much locked into this rotation doesn't make me feel very comfortable going into '08 and beyond.

I think you have to try and trade Millwood and replace him, either directly in his trade, or via a piece you get for Tex, with a prospect with a much better upside than the Loe/Rupe's we already have.

Unless this rotation gets its act together sometime over the last 4 months of this season, there is no reason to believe that it will not be a huge liability again next year.

by Athos on May 31, 2007 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions

bingo bango

Lick by lick, mountains erode

by RangerMoto on May 31, 2007 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions

Disagree

Yes, the rotation is a big reason why this club has struggled, but

Millwood has been hurt, and trading that contract at the lowest spot in his career would be ridiculous. Long term, he will be fine. He won 15 freakin' games last year. Wheather he is a number 1 or number 2 doesn't matter. He is one thing that we can count on the next few years.
Padilla is another guy who won 15 games last year. His track record over the years has been good and it is not anywhere close to out of the realm of possibility to think he return closer to his track record. And he is a ground ball pitcher in a park where you need that. Also, I think his numbers would be better if his defense would be better to this point.
McCarthy. Again, you gave up Danks and Massett to get him. Enough said, you ride him a long time to find out if he's the guy. You don't give up on a guy because of a blister that forces him to miss a couple of starts. He was starting to get into a pretty good groove, pre-blister.
Tejeda looks like he has a chance. He has great stuff, but he's young and he goes through the regular growing pains that young pitchers go through.
Lots of interesting possibilities for the 5 spot next year in Hurley, Rupe, Loe, Wilson, and it's not real hard to find a veteran #5 starter.

However, while Cruz, Wilk, Diaz, others have failed just as miserably. There is no hope that they will turn things around. And as much as Botts is being called for, it's hard to see that he'll be anything close to Tex.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on May 31, 2007 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions

contigencies

aren't Josh Rupe, CJ Wilson, Diamond eventually, and Reiny contigencies.

They may not be great, but they are doable as backup plans.

Right now your outfield contigencies are Mahar?, Harrison?, and Anthony Webster?

First base: Nate Gold?

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on May 31, 2007 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions

I know I got in trouble for daring to suggest it

over the offseason, but not only is this a bad outfield, there isn't a lot of help in the system on the way.

Our pitchers may fail. Our OF already has failed. The only guys under control for any length of time are Diaz, Catalnotto and Cruz, and Cat looks like his OF days are more or less past him, and Diaz and Cruz look an awful lot like busts or 4th OF types.

Mitt Romney should "get out his small-varmint gun and drive those Guatemalans off his lawn" -- Sen John McCain

by DJCahill on May 31, 2007 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions

Agree

And position prospects are much safer bets.

I remember when ARod was getting dealt, and being excited by a rumor of Edwin Jackson and Greg Miller coming back. Eeesh.

by hightowersmith on May 31, 2007 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions

OF

There are no internal locks for starting OF'ers next season. Cruz and Diaz are "old" prospects and their window to contributing at the major league level is closing. With Cruz being sent down, it may very well turn out that he does not come back to Arlington as a starter. The same can be said of Diaz. The only other hitter that is ready to play in the majors is Botts, but the team seems reluctant to play him. Something must be done to procur some starting OF'ers for next season. Hicks is not all that willing to spend a lot of money on an underperforming team, so quality free agents for the three OF positions is not realistic. While question remain about McCarthy, Padilla, and Tejeda, at least they are under contract for 2008. Trading Tex and the impending free agent departures leaves holes at 1B, RF, CF, LF, and Cat will need a platoon partner at DH. I think it is same to assume that Cruz/Diaz would form a nice platoon partner/4th OF combo. Regardless of who gets which role, I don't think both will develop into starters for next season. Botts could take over at 1B, but it won't take long for fans/writers to start complaining about his poor glove work, followed by the laments for the Tex trade. This still leaves the Rangers needing a CF and corner OF. A trade with the Dodgers could land a player ready to start in RF/LF and Aaron Rowand could fill CF nicely. Trading Tex would get a major league ready corner OF'er and free up some cash to get Rowand. Logically, this seems to be the best course of action.

by Excel Hearts Choi on May 31, 2007 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions

Agree and disagree

While the Rangers had what looked like (at one time) a decent rotation, they've been anything but that. I think "sorry pitching staff" is an honest assessment. However, I agree that the Rangers need to get the best prospects available. This isn't a team pushing for the playoffs and looking for that one missing piece.

I think the Rangers should gladly take OFers, starters, catchers. The best possible of those positions.

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on May 31, 2007 10:47 AM CDT reply actions

Agree totally.

Totally.

by isaacbrock on May 31, 2007 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions

Maybe Cruz needs to get rid of Jabu

"You no help me hit curve ball, I say F.Y. Jabu, I do it myself."

"This is a simple game, you hit the ball, you catch the ball, and you throw the ball."

by lwjr on May 31, 2007 10:59 AM CDT reply actions

Totally Agree

We talk about how bad the pitching has been and that's true. But if you step back and look at it there is a lot of hope for the staff the way it is. On paper it is potentially a much better staff than we had 96-99. Obviously it would help to add a guy or two to the mix. Maybe throw in Tejeda in a deal with Tex to get something else.

However, here's a look at your line-up post-firesale.

C - Laird
1B - Botts
2B - Kinsler
SS - MY
3B - Blalock
LF - Cruz
CF - Byrd
RF - Diaz
DH - Cat

Ugh, and you thought the offense has been bad to this point. and if Botts, Cruz and Diaz don't come through, there are no other options on the farm until 2009 at the earliest.

We've shown the last couple of years, and I think rightfully so, that we aren't going to spend the money on a premium bat. You better get at least 3 premium bat guys that are close in deals for Tex, Sosa and Gagne and I think that is possible.

If you get an arm too, that's great, but that's all you get, you'll see a guy go 6-15 with a 3.80 ERA next year.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on May 31, 2007 11:06 AM CDT reply actions

Byrd

Might as well play him in CF but I think the chances of him pulling a GMJ style magic act at age 30 are about 1 in 500. He has a .683 career OPS v. RHP in over 1000 PA. GMJ was a good 50 or 70 OPS better than that against RHP prior to the time he exploded.

by Brian Hayes on May 31, 2007 12:00 PM CDT reply actions

Agreed

I wouldn't waste much time on Byrd, and I damn sure wouldn't be playing him regularly in LF like Washington is doing. If he isn't a CF, he is worthless. Does Washington really think Byrd is a better option than Diaz?

by BCanfield @ Lone Star Ball on May 31, 2007 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Yea

Why didn't Wash take the opportunity to play Diaz regularly with Wilk, Cat, JHJ on the DL.

Now whe are back in the logjam of rotating guys so that nobody gets enough regular at bats to get going.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on May 31, 2007 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions

I like Byrd's smile

What stat accounts for that?

When you lose, a few smiles help.

by 3Bagger on May 31, 2007 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions

I was all for giving Cruz his fair shot at the big

league level and I was hoping he'd get until the All Star break at least but I can't argue w/ a sub .200 avg at this point.

If you don't have fun it's your own damn fault.

by cgolden on May 31, 2007 12:16 PM CDT reply actions

Roger Clemens Flop

That Detroit guy pointed out that Roger Clemens pro-rated portion of his $28,000,022 salary is $18,207,665 if he starts on Monday.

I really think this signing shows how desperate the Yanks really are. I don't expect AL Roger to look much like NL Roger.

by 3Bagger on May 31, 2007 12:25 PM CDT reply actions

Trade

Would you do this trade?

Teixeira, Blalock, Otsuka, Cruz

For

LaRoche, Billingley, Kershaw, Elbert, B. Clark, Tomko, Nomar

We get 4 great prospects. I included B. Clark for Cruz because Clark makes 4M as a backup OFer. Cruz pretty much makes the minimum so that will help with all the money they're taking in. I also included Tomko because he makes 4M as a RP and is having a bad year. I include Nomar because he makes 8M and would be replaced by Teix. So that's 16M while we're sending 17M.

The question is, how many years does Nomar, Clark, Tomko have left? Hopefully they're expiring soon.

Otsuka > Tomko
Cruz > Clark
Blalock > LAD 3B production this year
Teixeira > Nomar

LAD improve in 4 areas for the same salary while giving up 4 great prospects.

Would you do it?

by Coolbean04 on May 31, 2007 2:10 PM CDT reply actions

Texas? Of course.

Dodgers? Hell no.

Dozens!!!

by Brian Thomas on May 31, 2007 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions

Blaylock

Why would the Dodgers trade for an injured Hank Blaylock?

by Randy Richardson on May 31, 2007 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions

OOOPS - Blalock

by Randy Richardson on May 31, 2007 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions

trades

It seems to me that the value of our guys is overestimated. I don't think Tex would bring back enough to make it worth while to trade him. The only way I'd do it is if 2 or 3 teams were getting desperate (maybe because of key injuries)close to the trade deadline and started a bidding war for him. Otherwise no deal. In my opinion, Sosa and Lofton have very little trade value at all.
The most interesting trade, it seems to me, is if Gagne stays healthy for the next 2 months, I think he could land a nice prospect.

by Randy Richardson on May 31, 2007 6:48 PM CDT reply actions