Rebuilding, fan patience, and Ian Kinsler
One of the ongoing issues that the Rangers organization has to deal with, and that us fans have been discussing, is whether the Rangers should just blow everything up, do a tear down, plan on losing 95-100 games the next couple of years, and plan on competing again in 2010.
And one of the arguments in favor of that plan, that is sometimes advanced, is that fans would rather see a bunch of young players who have a future go out and play, even if they lose 100 games, than watch a .500 team with veterans.
I think, though, that that argument is crap. And the main reason I think so is the fan reaction to Ian Kinsler this year.
Kinsler just turned 25 years old. He's in his second major league season. He's in his third season as a second baseman. He's one of the best young building blocks the Rangers have right now, if they are going to rebuild.
And yet, for much of this season, Kinsler has been the object of fans' wrath. I've seen repeated calls to bench him, to send him to the minors, to call up Tuglett or German Duran and let them have a chance, because Kinsler just isn't getting it done.
Kinsler is just the most obvious guy, of course...there have also been repeated calls, at various times this season, for Brandon McCarthy to be sent down, for Robinson Tejeda to be sent down, for Gerald Laird to be benched so that we can see what Chris Stewart can do.
But this drives home, to me, the problem inherent with rebuilding...too many fans aren't going to have the patience to do it...
Believe it or not, Ian Kinsler has been one of the Rangers' three best positional players this year (along with Mark Teixeira and Kenny Lofton). He's third among A.L. second basemen in Runs Above Replacement. He's fifth among A.L. second basemen in VORP. He's got an OPS+ of 103. He's having a pretty good season.
And yet, he's widely considered a disappointment, a guy who maybe the team shouldn't be counting on.
As a point of reference, Ian Kinsler is having a better season than Michael Young. He's got about the same OBP, a much better slugging percentage, and has been much better as a base stealer. He's got an edge of 19 points in EQA.
And yet, the media, the broadcasters, even the fans seem happy with Young, point out that he's likely to hit .300 and get 200 hits again, while Kinsler is part of the problem.
I've mentioned before that the dichotomy between Kinsler and Sammy Sosa is remarkable to me. Sosa is viewed as a success story, and yet he's a DH with a .259 EQA. Yet Kinsler, the second-year second baseman, has a .276 EQA, and he's a disappointment.
I'm not sure what has turned Kinsler into a team whipping boy this year. Yes, he's making too many errors, but he's also maintaining a respectable Zone Rating, and I'll trade a few more errors for a guy who has some range. And it seems like his demeanor on the field turns some people off, because he always looks the same out there...but again, in someone like Michael Young -- a guy who Kinsler has been compared to quite a bit -- that is viewed as steadiness, as composure, whereas in Kinsler, some people interpret it as not caring.
But if the fans can't be tolerant with Ian Kinsler, can't put up with a month-long slump without calling for him to be sent down, then there's no way a rebuilding project will be accepted here.
Because the team rebuilding is going to involve a lot of guys worse than Ian Kinsler, who will be playing worse than Kinsler has this year.
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Agreed..
It seems moronic to think some guy hitting .320 in AA is going to be better than the guys hitting .260 in the pro's.
I say keep this team together, and run it out for 2008. It seems highly unlikely that all these players would have the same slow start two years in a row.
by mattrpav on
Jun 25, 2007 12:50 PM CDT
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Michael Young
Teixeira is the prime of his career at 27. If he was willing to re-sign here before going to free agency, I'd love to see him locked up. I'd also like to schtup Angelina Jolie, but that's not going to happen either.
I think we've seen what this team is, and thats a team thats not close to winning anything next year. We have pitchers that are either not good, or injured, and not much of a lock for next year. There are too many holes to fill to be playoff bound next year.
I doubt you can make a key addition and compete for the postseason next year.
I think Adam is right that fans will stay away from the ballpark when you field a young noncompetitive team, but I also think they will stay away with an old noncompetitive team. So the question is, what plan makes you a competitive team the quickest. We've seen what playing for the next year has acheived, and thats been pretty woeful in the '00s.
The only folks paying to see bad baseball, are corporations who are writing off the tickets, and fans of the other team.
by DJCahill on
Jun 25, 2007 1:03 PM CDT
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Well, attendance is actually up his year.
by tklawless on
Jun 25, 2007 6:08 PM CDT
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Paid attendance, anyway
I wonder how much of that attendance boost is corporate season tickets that go empty?
by DJCahill on
Jun 25, 2007 11:05 PM CDT
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Ian Kinsler
He is probably the brightest spot on this team so far - he's the one player currently on the team who I can see as obviously playing a major part of a playoff run in 3 years. I don't understand why people don't forgive a 2nd year player for pressing when they were all so quick to dismiss major slumps from Young and (to a lesser extent) Teixeira.
I agree that this team has too great a history of fighting failure by giving up on young guys struggling. If you ask me, guys like Tejeda, McCarthy, Loe, Kinsler, and CJ are the bright spot of this club, not the problem.
Filling in the bumps in the road means taking dirt off of the mountains. That just gives you a nice, level surface of mediocrity year in, year out. And we know Texans like flat.
by JBImaknee on
Jun 25, 2007 12:58 PM CDT
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Whipping boy
There will be incredible pressure on Daniels to get prospects that can help the team very soon, like next year at the latest. I don't think he has convinced Hicks to look at the long term picture (if that is even his own goal) and that would be a failure to me. If he has and Hicks is just holding his tongue on rebuilding vs. "building" I don't blame him one bit for the verbal jockeying.
by t ball on
Jun 25, 2007 1:00 PM CDT
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i think you are overestimating the kinsler bashing
yeah ive seen the occasional comment that he needs to go to AAA to figure things out by a random fan, but i really dont see this mass send kinsler to AAA movement youve mentioned 3 or 4 times.
people just got really excited in april for an all star type year and got let down by his long slump.
that said, i do agree with the general argument about rebuilding/patience.
by DSheppard on
Jun 25, 2007 1:03 PM CDT
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i agree
by chrispi on
Jun 25, 2007 1:46 PM CDT
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me too
A casual fan would complain, and while they fill a good portion of attendance, and might stay away from RBiA, they'd come back in droves if the rebuild was actually successful.
Maybe some people in the DFW media or people who post on seamheads are complaining, but not on here. The only gripe has been Kinsler's defensive problems. I've cringed at some of the things he's done in the field, but my complaints mostly deal with the mental errors.
by WyoRanger on
Jun 25, 2007 2:23 PM CDT
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Agreed I was thrown alittle by this post
by cgolden on
Jun 25, 2007 4:16 PM CDT
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Kinsler bashing
by t ball on
Jun 25, 2007 5:54 PM CDT
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I am one...
by ortonius on
Jun 25, 2007 1:03 PM CDT
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The Kinsler hate
If we could find a couple more shorties at his level of ability, our future would look pretty bright.
by Brian Thomas on
Jun 25, 2007 1:05 PM CDT
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BACK OFF KINSLER !!
the cutest Ranger on the field..so give the guy a break !
by RangerDisaster on
Jun 25, 2007 1:06 PM CDT
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Sophomore Jinx?
Michael Young (25) 2nd Full year .262/.308/.382 9 HR 6 SB
Unfortunately Kinsler's defense is not particularly good, but he is still new at the position. Hopefully it improves.
by DJCahill on
Jun 25, 2007 1:12 PM CDT
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Pitching
If you buy into the premise that pitching matures later than hitting, then the team was "rebuilt" backwards. It would have made more sense to build around a core of 2 or 3 solid starting pitchers, and then fill in around them with young position players. Yes, I realize that teams don't always have a choice in this matter, but I have to think that there were some opportunities to pick up pitching that were passed by.
Instead, the Rangers have let their young position prospects mature into veterans and filled in around them with 2-3 young pitchers that might be good in a year or two.
by Brandon Wilson on
Jun 25, 2007 1:07 PM CDT
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Pitching
by trza on
Jun 25, 2007 1:14 PM CDT
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yea
by knockoutking24 on
Jun 25, 2007 1:33 PM CDT
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DVD
by Brandon Wilson on
Jun 25, 2007 4:23 PM CDT
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defense
The most disappointing aspect of Kinsler's game is his inability to play 2nd base this season, not his offense.
by doolindalton on
Jun 25, 2007 1:21 PM CDT
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Kinsler
He's just not been that great at it.
by Adam J. Morris on
Jun 25, 2007 1:33 PM CDT
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defense
by Brandon Wilson on
Jun 25, 2007 2:00 PM CDT
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Soriano
by Adam J. Morris on
Jun 25, 2007 2:04 PM CDT
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You've said that before
by Brian Thomas on
Jun 25, 2007 2:14 PM CDT
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I recall
by DJCahill on
Jun 25, 2007 2:23 PM CDT
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soriano
by rentz on
Jun 25, 2007 2:25 PM CDT
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that fits my memories perfectly
by Brian Thomas on
Jun 25, 2007 2:32 PM CDT
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soriano's range
by Brian Hayes on
Jun 25, 2007 2:36 PM CDT
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ZR
2004 Soriano - .799, 7th in ZR in the AL (out of 10)
2005 Soriano - .808, 8th in the AL (out of 8)
2006 Kinsler - .815, 9th in the AL (out of 11)
2007 Kinsler - .810, 9th in the AL (out of 12)
I don't think stats are everything but based on ZR Soriano and Kinsler appear to be very similar players to me. That confirms my memory as well, that they were both capable of making the athletic play, but just as capable of watching one scoot between their legs.
by Brandon Wilson on
Jun 25, 2007 4:00 PM CDT
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RF
2004 Soriano - 5.24, 2nd in the AL (out of 10)
2005 Soriano - 4.88, 4th in the AL (out of 8)
2006 Kinsler - 5.58, 1st in the AL (out of 11)
2007 Kinsler - 5.73, 1st in the AL (out of 12)
Kinsler certainly would appear to have better range based on these numbers (as I said below numbers may not be everything, but it is significant), but I wouldn't say Soriano's main problem was range. He was above average in range, but below average in zone rating (which I think translates into he couldn't make all the plays he got to). Kinsler may have better range, but based on his zone rating he is just about as bad (perhaps even worse) at converting those chances.
Comparing the two in ZR and RF I'd say they both demonstrate inconsistency at converting chances. While range plays a factor for them, consistency seems to be the bigger factor (which is reflected in their error rates).
by Brandon Wilson on
Jun 25, 2007 4:14 PM CDT
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range factor
by ab03 on
Jun 25, 2007 7:56 PM CDT
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errors
by doolindalton on
Jun 25, 2007 3:48 PM CDT
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Okay
by Adam J. Morris on
Jun 25, 2007 4:13 PM CDT
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fielding pct
by Brandon Wilson on
Jun 25, 2007 4:18 PM CDT
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It needs to be better
by Adam J. Morris on
Jun 25, 2007 5:01 PM CDT
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defense is a lot less important than offense
by chrispi on
Jun 25, 2007 1:51 PM CDT
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Although
His 'catch the eye' issues are being sporadic, with the errors or misplays happening at the worst possible moment, and his offensive shows spotty rather than day by day consistent. He'll be fine.
by Ed Coffin on
Jun 25, 2007 1:55 PM CDT
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good defense
by ab03 on
Jun 25, 2007 1:57 PM CDT
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that's true
by chrispi on
Jun 25, 2007 2:05 PM CDT
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defense
by Brandon Wilson on
Jun 25, 2007 4:04 PM CDT
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defense
THough im sure that wont help kinsler learn 2b, but i'd like to see what he can do at ss
by rentz on
Jun 25, 2007 2:12 PM CDT
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Kinsler at SS
by RCCook on
Jun 25, 2007 2:29 PM CDT
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no
by chrispi on
Jun 25, 2007 2:03 PM CDT
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agree...but
However, the difference in 10 extra hits over a 500 ab season is 20 points, not 2 (i.e. a guy qith 150 hits in 500 ab hit .300 whereas a guy with 140 hits hit .280)
by Brian Hayes on
Jun 25, 2007 2:34 PM CDT
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you're exactly right
My point is still the same, as 20 points on the batting average really is pretty minimal. A casual fan might see the error numbers and think they make a huge difference, and that's why it's good to look at their effect by comparing the errors relative to offensive numbers.
by chrispi on
Jun 25, 2007 4:34 PM CDT
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damn
by ab03 on
Jun 25, 2007 1:41 PM CDT
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I haven't noticed that much Kinsler bashing
by Wes Cox on
Jun 25, 2007 2:21 PM CDT
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its not bashing
"if you dont' want to send him down, then you gotta do something. he's just not getting it done right now and you got to get it through his head that he needs to change."
and the same thing has been said at random points throughout the season for padilla, millwood, tejeda, mccarthy, and cruz.
the problem is that newb baseball fans aren't very patient, which is stupid because its a 162 game season so you have to have patience. and the bigger problem is that most baseball fans are newb baseball fans and armed with a little knowledge, they offer ridiculous suggestions ("bring up hurley, bring up duran")
by ab03 on
Jun 25, 2007 2:34 PM CDT
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i for one
sometimes people have differing opinions.
BTW-rebuilding rarely = winning 3 years later. It normally just means its time for another rebuild.
Alot of sports is luck.......but it seems that many want to attribute it to doing business a certain way, as though if you follow plan A you will win but with plan B you will fail.
I think the Rangers could have easily been in contention this year......but due to some bad luck people are looking to strip it down. I for one think that this team could indeed be competitive next year.
by rkh on
Jun 25, 2007 5:53 PM CDT
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Rangers 08
by Randy Richardson on
Jun 25, 2007 6:12 PM CDT
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i dont consider
I think we have more like 3 #3 starters, and maybe a couple of #4's
by rkh on
Jun 25, 2007 6:20 PM CDT
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Funny
In the short time I have read rkh, I rarely agree w/ him or her. I'll leave it at that.
That said, I think he's on target here. Five number fives is either disengenuous or a poor assessment, don't you think?
by Brian Thomas on
Jun 25, 2007 7:38 PM CDT
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starters
I'm not saying that McCarthy, Tejada, Loe don't have potential to be 2, 3, or 4 guys eventually. I hope they do. I don't think any of us can read Padilla. Millwood has never been able to pitch well at RBiA as a Ranger and I just don't know what to think about him at this point.
by Randy Richardson on
Jun 25, 2007 10:05 PM CDT
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Ace in the Hole!
by Everythings Rosey on
Jun 25, 2007 10:10 PM CDT
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Hmmm.
The only pitching contracts that are halfway paying are Meche and Lilly, and it's not like anyone was thinking of those two as aces last offseason...
by a bebop a rebop on
Jun 26, 2007 12:53 AM CDT
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Millwood
I think it's stretching the point a bit to say they're all #5's. I think they have 4 #3's (present or future) and a #4 or #5 in Loe if he sticks. If everyone pitches at their talent level, you can win that way if you have a strong offense and good bullpen (like certain past Ranger teams. This team obviously lacks that offense.
Padilla may need surgery so we may not find out about him for a long time. With Millwood, though, I'm starting to wonder if that option will be picked up.
by t ball on
Jun 25, 2007 10:39 PM CDT
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More rambling
To bolster my thoughts, look at the Braves during the Smoltz, Maddox, Avery period. They pushed each other. Separate them, and who knows.
Today's version: The Detroit Tigers. It's only supposition at this point, but put Verlander on one team (mediocre), and Bonderman on another, and I believe neither is as good. Put them on the same staff, and they push each other to excellence, especially sensing that they are part of something special. The Red Sox fit the model also. Millwood needs to NOT be the #1. But he'll be a kick-A #2, if he gets the chance.
by Everythings Rosey on
Jun 25, 2007 11:01 PM CDT
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Holy cow
I think they should concentrate on a short term plan of making the outfield much stronger offensively in the corners with defense in the middle. Then you hope you get a late 90s style thing happening in '08-'09. Long term you try to develop top of the rotation pitchers either currently in the system or acquired soon, and put them in place as they are ready.
It could work, but Daniels would have to not only make all the right moves, he'd have to be lucky too. It doesn't matter how smart he is about looking for the right trades if the other team won't part with the pieces the Rangers need.
by t ball on
Jun 25, 2007 11:28 PM CDT
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Synergy
Then WE have fun, too!
by Everythings Rosey on
Jun 25, 2007 11:44 PM CDT
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Chemistry
by t ball on
Jun 26, 2007 10:53 AM CDT
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I don't know if you realize this
by a bebop a rebop on
Jun 26, 2007 12:46 AM CDT
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Rebuilding
Someone in an earlier post said Young (at 30) is "on the backside of middle age." I couldn't disagree more. Not just about Young, but just about players in general. Look at the AL batting leaders - they're mostly 30+. Ordonez(33) and Posada(36 in Aug) are having career years.
Rebuilding doesn't mean getting rid of all the veterans. It just means giving more/earlier opportunities for the younger guys.
by Randy Richardson on
Jun 25, 2007 3:06 PM CDT
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yeah, I hope your right
by SanDiegoKev on
Jun 25, 2007 3:14 PM CDT
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now wait a minute...
by Walter Sobchak on
Jun 25, 2007 3:22 PM CDT
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Basically agree, but different reason
Now look at the Rangers FA veteran signings. They all look like bandaids instead of trying to truly improve the team (Sosa, Lofton, Cat, sort of Byrd and Gagne). They were all short contracts, and the Rangers were just trying to tape up some big holes (I'm generalizing, so don't jump all over me). In retrospect, it seems that the Rangers were just trying to fill out the roster.
If the Rangers rebuild and get a good young core, then they can't just pick up FAs to fill out a roster card. They need to pick up players who improve the team.
by WyoRanger on
Jun 25, 2007 3:39 PM CDT
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Kinsler
by nirvana on
Jun 25, 2007 3:11 PM CDT
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I wouldn't
A lot of the value he provides is from the fact that he provides offense from a premium defensive position.
by Adam J. Morris on
Jun 25, 2007 3:22 PM CDT
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Why?
Also, people always discount outfield defense, and it is actually a very important part of the game. Particularly in the spacious left field in Arlington. I'd go so far to say that our outfield defense has been the 2nd weakest part of this team the past decade (after starting pitching..)
by JBImaknee on
Jun 25, 2007 3:22 PM CDT
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Kinsler's my favorite Ranger
Mike Young's first few years in the majors were .240 average baseball with little to no power, and look how he turned out. Kinsler's a hard worker and you know our whole team defense sucks, he's just a small part of the problem. If Washington's great at anything it's supposed to be his penchant for improving players' defense - let's see what happens a full year from now - I think Kinsler's well on his way to All-Stardom
by Walter Sobchak on
Jun 25, 2007 3:21 PM CDT
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I think Kinsler
The errors drive me crazy, as well as his inconsistency at the plate. It looks like many times he just swings too hard. He's got to learn to go the other way too.
But again,fewer errors and a little more maturity at the plate and he will be a star
by stltxfan on
Jun 25, 2007 3:58 PM CDT
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wow
by rkh on
Jun 25, 2007 7:09 PM CDT
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Soriano
But I certainly would never expect Adam to ever say anything about Soriano.
With all that being said, Kinsler will be fine at 2nd base long term. He probably will never be a plus defender, but league average is certainly within reach.
And Soriano's range at 2nd was never a real issue. Sure, he booted way too many balls and had an inordinate amount errors, but his zone rating was never below average.
by jctrampe on
Jun 25, 2007 7:23 PM CDT
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Ummm...
His zone rating was below average every year he played second base.
by Adam J. Morris on
Jun 25, 2007 7:34 PM CDT
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I think that this is...
Give him time.
by dog named blue on
Jun 25, 2007 8:15 PM CDT
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It's the defense....
Playing defense in people's mind is just like playing catch in one's backyard. It's supposed to be easy.
However, playing defense in the big leagues, you have to be great all the time. You have to get to EVERYTHING.
So, they see Ian out there booting balls and such, they think he is terrible, surely, in fact, they could have made that play. Yes, the guy with the beer gut eating nachos likely thinks he could have gotten to the plays young athletic Ian Kinsler gets to.
It's dumb.
by ghostofErikThompson on
Jun 25, 2007 9:16 PM CDT
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The problem with a "rebuilding project"
I've never seen any evidence of that in all my years as a sports fan in any sport.
by Sharky on
Jun 25, 2007 10:16 PM CDT
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The same people who hated Sori...
We can have MY and IK up the middle, but combo that with groundball heavy pitching and its a death sentence.
keep up the Sori hate at 2b and the IK love though, it shows the hypocrisy of rangers nation in full effect.
by Jayslick on
Jun 26, 2007 11:54 AM CDT
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