Some draft stuff

by Adam J. Morris on Jun 6, 2007 3:47 PM CDT in News Comment 46 comments

Keith Law has a chat session up at ESPN, and he says he sees Rick Porcello going to Texas, St. Louis, or New York. The Rangers, at #16, are the first of those teams to pick, and Porcello is the #1 high school pitcher in the draft, so if he does slide all the way to #17 because of signability issues...well, that would be a good thing for Texas...

Kevin Goldstein has a mock draft up, with the Rangers taking Harvey and Ahrens, and passing on both Porcello and LaPorta with both picks.

Goldstein also has a chat going, on draft stuff...

And here's a piece that shows how hard it is to find a quality starting pitcher after the first round, even if you define "quality" to include guys like Ryan Dempster, Brian Moehler, and Brett Tomko...

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Um

Don't we pick at 17?

Fire Michael Young and Ron Washington and Vicente Padilla

by pblack on Jun 6, 2007 3:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Fixed. Sorry.

by Adam J. Morris on Jun 6, 2007 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

BP mock

I think I'd be pretty happy with those two picks.

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on Jun 6, 2007 3:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

I'd like to nab Porcello or LaPorta at #24, if they are there, but Ahrens would be fine.

by Adam J. Morris on Jun 6, 2007 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

porcello

if porcello, harvey, and Smoker are all there at 17, wouldnt we be crazy not to take Porcello??? isnt Porcello supposed to have the best stuff by consensus and better control than harvey.. i dont care if he asks for J.D.'s first born, we better not puss out on this draft, dont we have FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY???

by M_Y_isDANK on Jun 6, 2007 4:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Porcello

Isn't he the 3rd best player in the draft after Vitters and Price? No way he falls to us, and if he somehow does and we don't nab him, then... well... that would really suck.

by JBImaknee on Jun 6, 2007 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

porcello

ive seen him going as high as 2 and 3 in almost every mock, him sliding past 24 would me a shocker to me

"Pimps be damned, it's harder out here for a Rangers fan!" "If you don't throw strikes first, you're last."

by rentz on Jun 6, 2007 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

If Porcello wants a major league contract, you probably have to pass on him.

That will be the big issue.

by Adam J. Morris on Jun 6, 2007 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

true

if he wants a major league deal coming of high school that could be an issue

"Pimps be damned, it's harder out here for a Rangers fan!" "If you don't throw strikes first, you're last."

by rentz on Jun 6, 2007 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who was the last HS pitcher

to get a major league deal?

www.mavsmoneyball.com

by Wes Cox on Jun 6, 2007 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure

Todd Van Poppel got one, but I'm not positive he's the last one.

It may have been Bobby Seay or John Patterson.

by Adam J. Morris on Jun 6, 2007 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beckett?

"The boxing scenes in 'Million Dollar Baby' were so realistic, I initially thought it was a documentary." -Brian Thomas

by thedirkatron on Jun 6, 2007 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beckett

I'm pretty sure that he did and didn't Matt White sign one out of high school with the D-Rays.

It didn't work out so well

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jun 6, 2007 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cat Pick?

Two Questions. For Whom The Bell Tolls.

What pick # did we lose for Cat?
How many Free Agent picks might we have in next year's draft IF, we sign zero Type A free agents?

Side Note: Thank Gawd ESPN jumped in this year. With 5 picks, this will be better than Ranger baseball!

by 3Bagger on Jun 6, 2007 4:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Answer

#16
The only guy who might bring back a draft pick is Kenny Lofton, assuming we don't trade him.

by Adam J. Morris on Jun 6, 2007 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Newberg?

Please.

Adam is a beast!

by 3Bagger on Jun 6, 2007 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about Gagne?

"The boxing scenes in 'Million Dollar Baby' were so realistic, I initially thought it was a documentary." -Brian Thomas

by thedirkatron on Jun 6, 2007 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

are they

even doing draft pick compensation next year?

by Longhorn on Jun 6, 2007 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Considering...

the fact that he's been essentially out of the game for half of the time that the ratings would cover, I doubt he would carry a compensation pick.

by benmor78 on Jun 7, 2007 12:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

porchello

if he falls to the rangers at 17 i'll be flat out giddy....if they pass on him i might have to hurt someone

"Pimps be damned, it's harder out here for a Rangers fan!" "If you don't throw strikes first, you're last."

by rentz on Jun 6, 2007 4:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ideal Draft..

If we could get Porcello and Harvey/Beavan/Smoker at #17 and #24 and then pull LaPorta at #33, I would be ecstatic.

by Topgun22 on Jun 6, 2007 4:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i don't think that

is going to happen. Goldstein said something about saving money after the 1st 2 picks...

by Longhorn on Jun 6, 2007 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

TINSTAAPP...

With Hurley, Kiker, Poveda, and if we were able to get 2 of Porcello/Beavan/Harvey/Smoker... Some of those we would have to hit on...Right?

by Topgun22 on Jun 6, 2007 4:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i think we're a special case

we only have TINSTAARPP

by Longhorn on Jun 6, 2007 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Make that TINSTAARPPUTTTAT

add: Until They're Trade To Another Team.

by t ball on Jun 6, 2007 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

er, I meant

trade*d*

by t ball on Jun 6, 2007 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitchers

I've noticed that a lot of people mentioned are pitchers. I personally don't like drafting pitching for the sake of drafting pitching. The Rangers don't have any high level positional prospect of much value. I would like to see the Rangers draft the best prospects (regardless of position) with all their picks. If first three picks go to pitchers because they are the best prospects available, then I have no problem with that. Are there some potentially better prospects than those pitchers currently mentioned who could fall to the Rangers?

by Excel Hearts Choi on Jun 6, 2007 4:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This draft

The strength of this draft is high school pitchers.

I think that's the major reason you see so many of them where the Rangers are in the first round.

by Adam J. Morris on Jun 6, 2007 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Porcello

I do find it a bit sad that many drafts have him falling to us and past us, mostly because of money issues. Of course if it wasn't for the money issues I doubt he'd be talked about outside of the top 5.

by JKolar on Jun 6, 2007 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

BPA..

It's likely that the best player available when the Rangers pick at #17 and #24 is going to be a pitcher, and probably a HS pitcher. If we can get 2 of Porcello/Beavan/Harvey/Smoker with those picks, I doubt you would hear anyone complain that we didn't take the BPA.

by Topgun22 on Jun 6, 2007 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

TINSTAARPP...

...sounds like a Prince Fielder Fart.

I dare you to say it out loud.

by GhettoBear04 on Jun 6, 2007 4:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

haha

Arias is the third cousin of David Ortiz? Sucks for Big Papi...

by miles on Jun 6, 2007 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone else just not care about the draft?

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the Rangers have a lot of early picks. But I just don't care about pre-draft speculation. Anyone else just going to wait until tomorrow, read whatever about whoever we draft, and call it good?

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on Jun 6, 2007 5:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It think its a case...

of wanting to have something potentially positive to talk about with respect to the Rangers.

by JKolar on Jun 6, 2007 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope...

The draft and the fact that the Rangers have 5 early picks is about the only positive thing going for this team right now. Plus it represents hope, and a starting point for what most of us realize is going to be a rebuilding process. The same reason this board loves speculating about a Teixeira trade. Not because we don't like Tex, but because we realize it's going to happen, and know that it represents (hopefully) a positive step in the process. After the draft, and Tex/Gagne/Sosa/Lofton etc trades, this team and farm system will look very different. To me, that's exciting. Whenever I find out who the Rangers draft at #17 tomorrow, I will have the same feeling I used to have when I was opening Christmas Presents as a kid.

by Topgun22 on Jun 6, 2007 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I feel the same about Teix trade talk

The only thing I've posted about that is where he might go, who could use him and whose roster makes sense. Who we get back? Beats the hell out of me.

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on Jun 6, 2007 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

And yep to Kolar as well. I sorta think it's important to remember that no matter who is taken in the first and supplemental rounds, a lot can happen between draft day and first suiting up in a MLB uniform. A great thing if 3-4 years out they have realized even the highest expectations. A good thing if they eventually progress to make the club and contribute. A nice try if they progress and don't quite make it. And (alert) to be expected if they simply don't pan out.

I've always like the evaluation that once a star in AA, then you have a prospect.

Time does funny things. The worst of which is, it keeps moving when you don't.

by Ed Coffin on Jun 6, 2007 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Non-draft stuff

A very interesting article on the sinker. Notes how Scott Feldman and Kam Loe have a lot of movement in theirs. Pretty good read, especially the end about how to throw one.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/in-search-of-the-sinker/

Well Mr. Burns had done it. The power plant had won it. With Roger Clemens clucking all the while.

by WyoRanger on Jun 6, 2007 6:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Not to rain on anyone's parade here

but, this thing is 60% luck for the most part. Take a look at past first rounds and where guys were taken and which ones panned out. Outside of knowing that a player like Borbon typically doesn't pan out, we don't know which of these guys really are going to become impact big league guys, or big league guys at all.

That's the crappy thing about the baseball draft. I'll sit there all fired up by the channel tomorrow to see who we pick and then wait 3 or 4 years to see if they pan out.

But, in the midst of all the losing, it will be nice to hope for a day or two.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jun 6, 2007 6:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes

Though for some of us, following their minor league journey is a big part of the fun.

"The boxing scenes in 'Million Dollar Baby' were so realistic, I initially thought it was a documentary." -Brian Thomas

by thedirkatron on Jun 7, 2007 1:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's

the only part of the fun right now. But, I don't know how anybody can act like they are really pulling for some high school pitcher from New Hampshire, when nobody really knows anything about him.

Chris Young/Adrian Gonzalez for Aki Otsuka, the new Sammy Sosa/Wilson Alvarez for Harold Baines

by badradiorules on Jun 7, 2007 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This guy

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/

has us taking Bumgarner and Corey Brown.

I'd be A-OK with that...

by Longhorn on Jun 6, 2007 11:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

I'd rather have Harvey and Laporta... but what do I know?

by Brandon Wilson on Jun 7, 2007 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eww

Padres are converting their number 1 pick, Bush, to pitcher...

by Longhorn on Jun 6, 2007 11:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

To complete the thought on quality pitching.

I looked through the first round picks to see how many first round pitchers made it and produced a about a .500 record for at least a couple of season.

There were 58. Compare that with the 26 this guy found in rounds 2-10. I might be a bit more lenient. Still, it's pretty obvious most of the good pitching is drafted prior to round 2.

A couple more stats from the 1990-1999 drats. A total of 199 pitchers were selected in the 409 first round picks. Of the 199 (48% of all picks), there were 121 (61% of pitchers picked) who made it to the majors and, again, 58 (29% of pitchers picked) who had a marginal or better career. The track record for selecting a marginal or better pitcher in the first round is 1 in 3.

People rarely live up to their baby pictures.

by rooster on Jun 7, 2007 12:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs