On Eric Gagne
One of the movies I always really liked was "True Romance." Great script by Quentin Tarantino, nice direction, a great cast -- Christian Slater, back when he was still a really good actor and not some nut, Dennis Hopper and Christopher Walken acting crazy, Brad Pitt and Val Kilmer in cameos, Gary Oldman, Patricia Arquette, even guys like Michael Rapaport and Serge from Beverly Hills Cop with strong performances.
And there's a scene, where Slater's character, Clarence Whirly, is trying to unload a huge amount of cocaine he ended up with when he killed his girlfriend's pimp, and is telling the producer that his buddy works for why he should buy this huge amount, rather than stick with his safe little nickel-and-dime purchases from his usual sources, and uses a movie analogy to explain:
LEE: I don't know, Clarence, "Doctor Zhivago" is a pretty big movie.
CLARENCE: The biggest. The biggest movie you've ever dealt with, Lee. We're talkin' a lot of film. A man'd have ta be an idiot not to be a little cautious about a movie like that. And Lee, you're no idiot.
LEE: I'm not sayin' I'm not interested. But being a distributer's not what I'm all about. I'm a film producer, I'm on this world to make good movies. Nothing more. Now, having my big toe dipped into the distribution end helps me on many levels. But the bottom line is: I'm not Paramount. I have a select group of distributers I deal with. I buy their little movies. Accomplish what I wanna accomplish, end of story. Easy, business-like, very little risk.
CLARENCE: Now that's bullshit, Lee. Every time you buy one of those little movies it's a risk. I'm not sellin' you something that's gonna play two weeks, six weeks, then go straight to cable. This is "Doctor Zhivago". This'll be packin' 'em in for a year and a half. Two years! That's two years you don't have to work with anybody's movie but mine.
The recent flurry of news about the Rangers wanting to work on extending Eric Gagne rather than trading him, and the criticism from fans who say the Rangers can find a closer anywhere, shouldn't be spending money on a closer, makes me think of this exchange.
Because we aren't talking about one of those little closers. We aren't talking about Joe Borowski or Armando Benitez or Ryan Dempster. We're talking about Eric Gagne, one of the most dominant relief pitchers in baseball history.
Eric Gagne, folks, is Doctor Zhivago.
Eric Gagne is one of the great relievers ever to pitch. And he's still only 31 years old. I can't understand the mentality that says, if he wants to stay with the Rangers, we can't be bothered, we don't want him, he needs to go somewhere else because we'd rather spend money elsewhere.
And to be clear, I'm not advocating paying him whatever it takes. If Gagne's position is, "I think if I stay healthy and pitch great and become a free agent this offseason, I'll get a contract of X if things go well, so pay me X right now and I'll stay," then I keep shopping him and tell him we'll talk to him after the season.
But if Gagne is willing to extend now, for a reasonable amount -- not what he's going to get from the highest bidder this offseason, necessarily, but maybe a 3 year deal with a vesting option that allows him to make $12 million per year if he stays healthy and dominant -- and if your medical staff says that he's not an unreasonable injury risk, that they can keep him healthy and on the field the next few years, why wouldn't you do it?
What are the arguments against keeping him?
Well, #1 is that the team isn't going to be any good next season, so there's no point in having Gagne. Although if that's your position, then there's no point in trying to sign anyone this offseason, or keep anyone on the team who can be a free agent in the next couple of years. I don't think that that is necessarily the right tack.
#2 argument is that the bullpen is already good, so there's no point in keeping Gagne and paying him big money. And yes, the bullpen is a strength, and likely would be even if Gagne leaves. But again...we're talking about Doctor Zhivago. We are talking about an elite pitcher pitching 60-80 high leverage innings per year. We talking about a difference maker, one of the best relievers in the game. The strength of the bullpen is a justification for letting Akinori Otsuka or Joaquin Benoit go, not Gagne.
#3 argument is that the Rangers need to spend money on things other than Gagne, that they can't afford to pay Gagne and fill their other holes. And that could be a viable argument.
But here's the thing...let's say the Rangers have a hard, $80 million budget for 2008.
The Rangers now have $33 million owed to players under contract for 2008 (Millwood, Padilla, Blalock, Young, Cat). Mark Teixeira is, most likely, gone before 2008. If you keep Gagne, there's a good chance you deal Otsuka, either at the deadline or this offseason. With those two gone, you've got no significant, big dollar arbitration cases this offseason.
You sign Gagne, you've got $44 million committed in contracts for 2008 and no big arbitration cases.
Who are you going to want to sign as a free agent that you can't afford now?
Carlos Zambrano isn't coming here, and there aren't any other free agent pitchers on the market that are anything special.
And keep in mind, the $11 million we are talking about paying for Gagne is about what the market is for a decent #3/#4 starter on the free agent market.
Who is going to contribute more to the Rangers winning? Eric Gagne, or someone like Vicente Padilla, or Jeff Suppan, or Ted Lilly, or Jason Marquis, or Gil Meche...all guys who are coming in at around $11 million per year?
I'll take 70 innings from Gagne with a 1.75 ERA over 180 innings from one of those guys with the 4.50-4.75 ERA you'd be hoping for from them.
What about a centerfielder? Torii Hunter is apparently looking for 6 years, $90 million this offseason. Nevermind that the Rangers could afford that and Gagne, with plenty of money left over to spend on the rest of their roster this offseason...isn't Gagne a better player than Hunter, a good, not great, offensive player whose defense in centerfield is declining? How does it make sense to say you don't want Gagne because you'd rather spend money on Hunter (or Jermaine Dye, or Andruw Jones) instead?
And haven't we learned from the last couple of offseasons that there is a huge difference between wanting a player to come to Texas, and the player actually signing here? Maybe it is just me, but it seems like we've been burned too many times with free agents who flirt with the Rangers and would rather sign elsewhere. I'd much rather have Gagne here than let him walk so that we can have the "financial flexibility" to see guys talk to Texas and then sign ridiculous deals elsewhere. I'll take the bird in the hand, if we can get it.
Again, it would be one thing if we were talking about some run-of-the-mill closer, about even Francisco Cordero or someone like that.
But we're not.
We're talking about Doctor Zhivago, a guy who is one of the best handful of relievers in the league.
I think Gagne is a good bet to be a huge difference maker the next few years. I think can be the difference between a great Ranger bullpen and the best bullpen in the league. And I think the Rangers can afford to sign him and add other significant pieces to the puzzle, as well.
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Yes, because
There are no starting pitchers available that are worth signing this winter. And it looks like teams are not going to trade any young arms, either. So the above is really the only realistic plan for the Rangers in the next couple years.
I'd deal Gagne if the trade return is good enough. But like with Teixeira and Otsuka, if the return is not a good value, than keep them. I think Otsuka is a much greater risk than Gagne as far as skills go, he's getting old.
by t ball on
Jul 22, 2007 2:36 PM CDT
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#4
its common sense, its smart baseball. as much as both adam and jamey show their baseball smarts so regularly, then they both go on a rampage about resigning Gagne the minute he says he's interested in being here long term. what happened to my smart baseball guys? i want them back. the rangers gave seen few situations where it was so blindly obvious that trading a player was the best option. Id even go with the argument that he should be kept, offered arb and take the picks as well since i think JD has proven he's a good drafter and im still cautious about his trading skills. But the argument that he should not only be kept for the season but re-upped for 3-4 years for 10M+ is one of the absolute dumbest arguments ive heard come out of ppl whose baseball knowledge i respect.
what have u done with adam and jamey? i want the real ones back, i think tom hicks kidnapped them and pull an "invasion of the body snatchers" on us.
by Jayslick on
Jul 22, 2007 2:57 PM CDT
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gagne's health history
The second time they went in to do a TJ, but found a pinched nerve in scar tissue instead. They did a couple surgeries to clean up the elbow in 2005 and early 2006.
Later in 2006 he had surgery to fix herniated disks in his back. Lots of guys, like Randy Johnson, have recovered from that injury as well. Johnson missed most of '96 and some of '06 with a herniated disk problem.
Gagne has been healthy for more than 4 months. He's pitched healthy in the big leagues for 6 1/2 seasons, including the last half season. He also missed a couple seasons due to injury.
Is he an injury prone, fragile player, or just a guy who got hit with two major injuries in two years? I don't see how we can decide that based on the evidence.
by LukeR on
Jul 22, 2007 8:24 PM CDT
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I agree with your conclusion
by Brett Perryman on
Jul 22, 2007 8:30 PM CDT
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let's gamble Hicks money
If it hits, we are all rich. If it comes up red, Hicks is out $30m. Don't worry, he'll make more.
In the last 3 years, Hicks has consistently shown a willingness to spend whatever money it takes, as long as it's for quality players that want to play in Texas. Unfortunately those have been few and far between, lately.
Sometimes he hasn't been bold enough with his bids -- c.f. Matsuzaka. But he's been willing to gamble, and willing to shell out the bucks for FA's. Does he have a set payroll limit? I guess, but it doesn't seem to have played a limiting factor in the team's off-season signing efforts.
Is there a good example of a premium free agent that the team realistically could have signed, but chose not to, in the last four years?
by LukeR on
Jul 22, 2007 8:47 PM CDT
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x
That did well for us in signing Chan Ho Park. I wouldn't underestimate the catostrophic effects of Hicks misspending a lot of money, given his temperment and up and down finances.
by Brett Perryman on
Jul 22, 2007 8:59 PM CDT
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Ok, I'll grant you that
But I don't see a $30-40 million dollar contract for one of the premier relievers in baseball history carrying that kind of risk.
Even if he misses all of 2009, or something ... we'd still have him for 2 out of the next 3 seasons. As long as he pitches well those two years, that's pretty good, for us. Beggar teams cannot be choosers.
by LukeR on
Jul 22, 2007 9:08 PM CDT
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yeah but
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 23, 2007 11:06 AM CDT
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Just because
Gagne carries a good deal more risk than many other top players.
by Brett Perryman on
Jul 23, 2007 6:17 PM CDT
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my point
but I do understand your point and I think caution and due dilligence should be given due notice, and that if we do sign him to a longer extension, we should do a pretty sizeable base salary ($8 million) with incentives that kick up to $13 million if he stays healthy?
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 24, 2007 10:56 AM CDT
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Thank You !
Talents like that don't come around that often and when you have talent like that that actually wants to pitch in your pitcher unfriendly sad sack of a ballpark you sure as hell keep him.
I would only trade him if you got an unbelievable return for him otherwise I'll get quite a bit of satisfaction in saying "game over" for the next 2 or 3 years every time he comes in. Theres nothing more depressing and demoralizing to a team then losing games in the 9th inning, with Gagne we don't have to worry about that 97 % of the time.
10 million , 11 million..whatever ..hes totally worth it.
by NYCMuscleFag on
Jul 22, 2007 2:57 PM CDT
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Hicks' reasoning
That is exactly why Hicks would be willing to lock up Gagne. It would have very little to do with baseball logic and everything to do with filling seats.........sorry.
I remember all those playoff series the Dodgers were winning with Game Over..........oh wait, nevermind.
If weve got 11mil per season for Gangne then add another 7 per and give me Teix.
Of course no one has ever explained to me why we cant have Gagne, Hunter, and Teix?
by rkh on
Jul 22, 2007 4:51 PM CDT
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Well
by Brett Perryman on
Jul 22, 2007 5:06 PM CDT
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well........
I Bet for MY's $ and what it would take to get Gagne I'd be well on my way to having Teix for the next 8 years.
by rkh on
Jul 23, 2007 10:01 AM CDT
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Tex is as good as gone
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 23, 2007 11:10 AM CDT
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Wow
by badradiorules on
Jul 23, 2007 1:47 PM CDT
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actually
and what, you're going to argue that hitting is more valuable than pitching?
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 24, 2007 10:53 AM CDT
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Yes
A big time hitter will come up to the plate over 600 times in a season and will reach base over 200 times.
A closer will be involved in around 60-80 innings a year.
There's no contest.
by badradiorules on
Jul 25, 2007 10:29 AM CDT
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having a closer who can save you..
You're missing the point if you think just because the Dodgers weren't winning playoff series therefore hes not a top notch reliever.. it certainly had nothing to do with Gagne.
his record with the Dodgers was historically speaking unmatched by any other reliever in HISTORY ..which part of that do you not understand? He's converted almost 97 % of his
saves possiblities ..understand that number?
by NYCMuscleFag on
Jul 22, 2007 7:16 PM CDT
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the point is.......
Its like owning a ferrari and living on a goat ranch...awesome car, too bad you never get to drive it.
Gagne ahead of more needed parts
=
Cart before the horse
by rkh on
Jul 23, 2007 9:58 AM CDT
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Gagne missed quite a bit of time this season
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 23, 2007 11:16 AM CDT
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I guess....
You will never ride the coattails of a closer, or a bullpen for that matter, to the promised land.
Yes it sucks to blow games in the 9th
It sucks more to never be leading going into the 9th.
Oh yeah.......I happen to think that our bullpen would still be pretty good without Gagne
by rkh on
Jul 23, 2007 2:59 PM CDT
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agreed.
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 24, 2007 11:00 AM CDT
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leveraged wins
by t ball on
Jul 23, 2007 11:39 AM CDT
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A lot of ifs
by Clueless on
Jul 23, 2007 6:29 PM CDT
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Not really
by t ball on
Jul 23, 2007 9:30 PM CDT
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As long as the two outfield bats were
by DJCahill on
Jul 23, 2007 11:26 PM CDT
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Free Agents
I personally get tired of the Rangers getting looked down upon like the fat girl at prom that nobody wants to dance with. That's what free agents see in the Rangers and that's why everyone uses them as bargaining chips in the off season to drive up other teams' contracts.
The down side is of course if the contract turns into an albatross. The Yankees and Red Socks can out spend their mistakes. The Rangers cannot. If Gagne isn't healthy, it will come back to bite us. The only thing they can do is trust their medical staff and hope for the best.
Derek
by DerekSTheRed on
Jul 22, 2007 3:29 PM CDT
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LOL...the fat prom girl comment...so true...
by NYCMuscleFag on
Jul 22, 2007 3:40 PM CDT
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True Romance
As for Gagne, I'd like to keep him as well. When healthy, he's an elite pitcher. How many of those have the Rangers had lately?
by RCCook on
Jul 22, 2007 3:44 PM CDT
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That film
Hopper and Walken...one of the most electric scenes ever filmed.
I read recently that Gandolfini's performance in True Romance was what piqued The Sopranos' casting director's interest. Evidently, he was second choice after Ray Liotta. Interesting.
I'm really surprised at your take on this, Adam. This position is what I have been leaning towards for awhile, but I figured I was being fanboyish and impractical.
by Brian Thomas on
Jul 22, 2007 8:13 PM CDT
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You have to remember
by Brett Perryman on
Jul 22, 2007 8:22 PM CDT
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my weakness
by t ball on
Jul 22, 2007 10:31 PM CDT
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I keep thinking that the SP
So, if we can find some outfielders that are big bats, and also plus defenders - I could buy into some significant improvement over the next couple of years.
by tricer on
Jul 22, 2007 11:27 PM CDT
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fanboyism
It sucks that certain strategies or attitudes, like liking some aspect of the team we've got now, or thinking that we might be able to win someday, are viewed on this board as "fanboyish."
Maybe that's what you have to expect in a fan community of a team that has been as bad as this one, for as long as it has been (i.e., since it's inception).
But it still sucks.
by LukeR on
Jul 22, 2007 9:21 PM CDT
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Even if injury prone,
by TedFord on
Jul 22, 2007 4:05 PM CDT
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I'd have no reservations about keeping him
But I'm not going to gripe if they extend Gagne. Heck, I'm not going to gripe if they try to re-sign him, fail, and just let him walk (as long as he is a Type A). He's right up there with Pudge as one of the coolest guys we've had on this club in a long time.
by Brett Perryman on
Jul 22, 2007 4:43 PM CDT
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Gagne intangibles
He's probably one of the ten most recognizable players in the game for the casual fan and I know that he's not an everyday player that fans can expect to come out and see, but he definitely has plenty of marketing potential.
I envision CJ learning from him and blossoming into one of the league's elite setup men and be poised to take over as a closer in 3-4 years.
Watching him pitch is just pure baseball joy.
by Randy Richardson on
Jul 22, 2007 5:19 PM CDT
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Good Point !!!
by NYCMuscleFag on
Jul 22, 2007 7:10 PM CDT
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I am all for signing Gagne....
However here is something I haven't seen talked about much. What if all of this "extending Gagne" talk is just leverage by JD to get the best deal possible....considering a few weeks ago it looked like Gagne was for sure gone, teams could try to low-ball us knowing our only option was to take the best deal. If we are showing that we are willing to resign him, now teams not only have to make the best offer but also make the trade juicy enough to change our minds about resigning him.
Is this just JD playing the media game much like the other GM's saying JD is asking for too much.
by clinton33 on
Jul 22, 2007 6:17 PM CDT
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Samuel L. Jackson
and Bronson Pinchot (Balki Bartokomous from Perfect Strangers), Tom Sizemore, the late Chris Penn, and many more...apparently, Jack Black had a scene in it but it was taken out.
by the way, how has Slater gone nutso?
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 23, 2007 11:27 AM CDT
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Jackson
He had already been blasted by Drexel (Oldman) during the carpet-munching discussion/drug deal.
The guy that was with Oldman was the same guy that was there when they shot Samuel L. and his padner. One of many great lines:
Drexel: He musta thought it was whiteboy day. Is it whiteboy day?
Big-boned brother: Nah, man. It ain't whiteboy day.
by Brian Thomas on
Jul 23, 2007 6:22 PM CDT
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ehh
by Walter Sobchak on
Jul 24, 2007 11:02 AM CDT
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