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Some perspective on the Latin teenagers

I might be as biased as one can be, since Andrus, Beltre and Feliz (and Salty and MaxRam) are all among the 15-20 prospects on my little simulation roster (stop copying me JD), but with all disclaimers (years before they help the club, undeveloped tools, etc) as givens, the Rangers have collected some pretty special talents here.

Andrus was one of four 18 year olds to-be on Baseball America's Top 100. The others, Billy Rowell, Jose Tabata and Fernando Martinez, have all battled injuries and questions on their status as well, given the level they are all at for their ages. Also, all three are corner players with less positional value, and none are considered even decent defenders. But that is some high cotton for a prospect, being in the middle of those sorts of names.

Beltre, who has survived but not excelled as a 17 year old in the GCL, was considered to be one of the two or three most talented guys in a class that included Carlos Triunfel, Angel Villalona and Beltre's ex-teammate Oscar Tejeda, among just name after name of promising kids. He has special physical talent with a power projection through the roof, good speed and arm, and some semblence of patience at the plate. To my knowledge he was the only player in minor league baseball last season who was publicly compared with a young Barry Bonds and Darryl Strawberry (by someone outside of their - and the Rangers - organization, no less). He surpasses any of the Rangers' highly regarded signings in the past two Latin classes, and you know that AJ Preller, for one, was excited to get another shot at him.

Feliz, simply, has one of the best arms in the minor leagues. We've fortunately advanced as a baseball community past starting and stopping with fastball velocity when we discuss pitching prospects, but when it comes with some promise on a curveball and quality initial performance, it is noteworthy. Feliz is one of a handful of raw but promising very hard throwers in the lower levels in whom I had particular interest.

These guys, especially Andrus but really the other two as well, are household names among people who follow prospects through all levels and are three of the elite physical talents to come from Latin America in the last few years.

I'm really excited to have each of them, because, as Adam mentioned below, they aren't Jim Bowden decathletes who have no ability to play baseball. They are baseball tools guys with depth to their games.

Also, a miscellaneous point that has probably been mentioned on here but that I haven't seen or heard yet today. The Rangers have traded for four pitchers in these deals, and three of them are lefties. In updating my personal organizational depth chart one thing that had been jumping out at me was how weak they had become in left handed pitching. And while none of the three are big studs at this point, they are all prominent enough to make a real difference in the quality depth at that spot, with one at each tier (MLB, AA, LA)

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thanks for....
the insight zywica!
rage against the gold club

by erikj07 on Jul 31, 2007 6:36 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

sweet
This makes me smile, zywica! Thanks.
But that river of tears has dried for all of us.

by trza on Jul 31, 2007 6:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Sounds nice
LSB will have lots to hate.

I'll have lots to like.

I can hear you guys call them greedy already..

by Sharky on Jul 31, 2007 6:55 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Shut your piehole
Cock-gobbling assface.

by tlt29 on Jul 31, 2007 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dum-dum-dum-dum-dum-dum...
TROLL!
"People hated Jackie Robinson because he was black. People hate Barry Bonds because he's a cheating douchebag." -- Lewis Black

by ghtd36 on Jul 31, 2007 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stats so far....
Small sample issues apply:

Beltre (OF): .215/.314/.413 in ~132 PA in Rk ball

Triunfel (SS): .319/.345/.388 in ~269 PA across A-Rk/A+ ball

Villalona (3B): .264.352/.462 in ~118 PA in Rk ball

Tejeda (SS): .293/.348/.407 in ~135 PA in Rk ball

Now zywica usually knows these types of prospects much better than I do.

OTOH, he DOES tend to overvalue prospects like I overvalue stats in evaluating prospects.

Still, some good info. Thanks, zywica. I'm still leery of proclaiming some of these guys as sure-fire 1st rounders (though you most likely could say that of Triunfel)....

Req

by Requiem on Jul 31, 2007 7:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
though I think one would be misguided to paint me as someone who doesn't care about stats of these guys. A bad enough BB/SO will pretty much zero out my interest. But I mean a week or so ago Beltre had around an 800 OPS, so yeah I think your small sample size statement is pretty big there.

But to ignore every report of this guy's physical talent is just sticking your head in the sand. No one's guaranteeing anything by any means, but I think people should know the rest of the story. We can all read his stat line.

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you misread my statement.
I'm saying you overvalue prospects compared to regular players like I overvalue stats on prospects vs. scouting reports on prospects.

That is I put more weight (probably too much) on stats vs. scouting reports whereas you put more weight on prospects vs. major leaguers.

I did not mean you don't look at stats. Far from it.

Physical talent and all is fine. It's translating that talent to production which is more important to me.

Very true on the sample size.

It's going to be a LONG time until we see the results from Beltre, which is why I'd prefer the sandwich pick (and the decent chance at a Type A compensation pick).

Req

by Requiem on Jul 31, 2007 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

First of all
I thought you were saying both and just addressed the stats/scouting part. But yeah I'm sure that I do. I've moderated in my personal (sim league)approach in recent months (mostly because me team is geting better), have actually made several prospect for 'peripheral' players (getting guys like Betemit, Blalock, Orlando Cabrera, Bradley) deals this season. But my bias is unquestionably in that direction.

I'm also not disagreeing with you that there is necessarily an appreciable difference between what they got in the trade and potentially two picks. I'm a little disappointed with that deal, as I said. However I think that Beltre is more worth the equivalent of a sandwich pick than you apparently do, and I think that he isn't necessarily far from how advanced the guy we might pick, if he's a HS guy, would be. For instance, we picked Neil Ramirez in the range that we'd probably get the sandwich pick. I'm not sure that Beltre is all that far behind him.

Beyond that it's a little hard to compare. I would certainly think that our pick at, say, 25 would be more advanced, yeah.

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah...
I think we're pretty much on the same page now. Just wanted to clarify about the stats stuff for you. I know you definitely look at stats.

For me personally, I just don't like trading for players extremely far away. Especially, if they're essentially the centerpiece of a solid trade.

If we'd gotten Beltre for Sosa, I'd have been ecstatic. Even Mahay, I would have been ok with. But  Gagne is the premier reliever (who can double as closer) on the trading block this July, and Beltre is far from the type of player that I'd be centering a deal around (if he was the centerpiece).

Eh, I'm probably just beating a dead horse now.

Suffice to say, I don't really look at prospects as trade targets until they hit A- ball....

Req

by Requiem on Jul 31, 2007 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And
for what it's worth, I'm not excited by that deal. Even with his long term upside Beltre, along with Gabbard and whatever Murphy brings, isn't enough for me. I was confident that they would get a quality starting prospect for Gagne, someone more promising than Gabbard, regardless of what kid or kids might be attached.

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also req
JD said on the telecast that they view Andrus as easily the equivalent of a top five pick. Just thought that was interesting given the topic of comparing these guys to picks.

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm fine with Andrus....
though I don't quite see him as a top five pick let alone easily the equivalent of a top five pick.

But that's just splitting hairs.

Req

by Requiem on Jul 31, 2007 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
I can't really imagine that anyone is too upset with the Atlanta deal. I'm pretty stunned, frankly, by the fact that they got the three pitchers that they got added to the two positional guys. And I don't know if it's that road split, but I've really gotten excited about Andrus over the last 36 or so hours.

I like that deal a ton more than the other one.

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

who doesnt
the boston deal just leaves me going "meh"
other than beltre there isn't anything for me to really like there
Spider pig, Spider pig does whatever a spider pig does

by rentz on Jul 31, 2007 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm just
hoping that my gut is completely wrong and their scouts are completely right on Gabbard.

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 8:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

One other thing...
...vis-a-vis draft pick compensation for Gagne...

I think the Rangers believe they have a pretty good shot at bringing him back next year.  I think they are hoping to bring him back, anyway.

So if they don't trade him, and re-sign him, they get no draft pick compensation.

If they do trade him, and re-sign him, they lose a 2nd rounder, but get the package they traded him for.

by Adam J. Morris on Jul 31, 2007 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Daniels was certainly clear
during the PC (at least in my mind) that they would be interested in him while minding the fact that he's talking about someone else's player now.

The fact that they might try to re-sign him was a factor in me feeling like it would be worth trading him (based on the no comp/2nd rounder thing). Of course I thought that they'd get more.

Also, Gagne acting concerned about the return in the deal seems like a positive sign in that direction (if you're rooting for him to get a big, long deal to come back).

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Money
they certainly have payroll room now to sign him to a 3-year deal at $12 per, which is what it would probably take, incentive clauses a part of that hopefully.  They would still have room to go hard after a Fukudome (would need a nickname poll) or Dunn or whatever as well.

I'd almost rather see them not sign any big names to long term contracts though, unless Hicks is willing to pick up salary later if they need to be traded or dumped.

mmmmmm...64 slices of American cheese...

by t ball on Jul 31, 2007 10:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A
ppreciate the detail Z.  I for one am really pleased for all manor of reasoning with these deals.  For most on LSB we're fans of a well supported but unfashionable mid market team who we'd love to be considered bigger and more popular (reality).  Today , JD has laid some foundations. Period. With a greater percentage of talented youth in our progressive 25, this is, and may always be, our best shot for success.    
You're very own English Rangers fan. Why? Family. The glory? Have a word!

by UK Ranger on Jul 31, 2007 7:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

thanks for the info z
"Jon Daniels is going to end up being the best thing to ever happen to the Texas Rangers." - me, a long time ago...

by Longhorn on Jul 31, 2007 7:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Don't remind me
I got lambasted for disputing your opinion of JD...
"There is nothing worse than aggressive stupidity." Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749 - 1832)

by Clueless on Jul 31, 2007 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

zywica
out of the pitchers we got, besides gabbard, who has the most potential to make it in texas within a reasonable time?  I know injurys or trades might occur but who can we see  here making an impact in the quickest time? maybe next year or no body until 2009.

by NYTXFAN on Jul 31, 2007 8:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Harrison
is far and away the most advanced of the other pitchers in these deals. Jones and Feliz are both a long ways away (unless Jones stayed in the pen, which I doubt).

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

request
I can't get excited about Harrison.  Do a post that shows me the light.

by shroomer on Jul 31, 2007 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Never been a
Harrison guy. Someone else will have to take that task on.

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is
the most i have been excited about our farm system in a long time.  I mean, last year our farm had no notable players, besides hurley, that was going to make an impact by 08, or 09.  Could we realistacly see a young world series caliber team by 09?  what do you think?

by NYTXFAN on Jul 31, 2007 8:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

John Danks?
Or are we talking about after the trade?

WS I think is 10-11 goal, division is 09

by bushe on Jul 31, 2007 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks
for the insight, Z.

by coolaid on Jul 31, 2007 8:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Dude
that was weird, just saw Tex in a Brave uniform...hmm
"Jon Daniels is going to end up being the best thing to ever happen to the Texas Rangers." - me, a long time ago...

by Longhorn on Jul 31, 2007 10:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

K
watching the replay of the Braves game on mlb.tv. I don't think I've ever seen Tex that happy...
"Jon Daniels is going to end up being the best thing to ever happen to the Texas Rangers." - me, a long time ago...

by Longhorn on Jul 31, 2007 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

top 100 prospects
So now how many do the Rangers have this winter?  Hurley, Teagarden, Davis, Whittleman if he picks up, Andrus...all seem like candidates to me, maybe Kiker if he finishes strong?  Is Feliz thought of highly enough?  ManRam, was he on there last year?
mmmmmm...64 slices of American cheese...

by t ball on Jul 31, 2007 10:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Actually
I see it as two clear candidates, Hurley and Kiker. I expect that Kiker will make it. After that it's dicey. Andrus needs a good August in the Cal League because Callis is pushing pretty hard to tap the brakes on him over there. Teagarden might have an outside shot, but considering that he didn't make the midseason one and Brett Hayes (check those AA numbers) did, when the draft picks go in he might have an uphill battle.

Davis wouldn't make it I don't think, nor Whittleman even though he was in the Futures and the midseason one. His slump has just been pretty bad. He could surprise me though. He, Teagarden and Andrus probably have the 3rd, 4th and 5th best shots.

Feliz, maybe he gets a lights out report in the Appy (though they will miss him some now with him leaving, could hurt him), but I'd be surprised.

The guy who I know you people will groan about but if he had only pitched a little more would have a shot is Main. He's the 4th or 5th prospect in the org for me at the moment. Okay start groaning.

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And Duran
He's kind of out there as a wildcard. Poveda did also make the midseason, so outside shot, though I'd be surprised.

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Poveda
The reports I heard from Jason Cole who saw Poveda pitch this year in Clinton were not that encouraging. Poveda is doing a fine job of getting Low A hitters out, but with a high 80s fastball and a no real breaking pitch, he has no real chance of making the list. He does have a plus changeup and has great control, but he is repeating Low A and I don't think he has the stuff to be a major league starting pitcher.

by uthornfan on Jul 31, 2007 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Repeating low-A
Given his age, that isn't really a negative.

by Adam J. Morris on Aug 1, 2007 12:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know
I know that it isn't necessarily a bad thing. However, his stuff isn't good enough right now to project as anything more than a back of the rotation starter. He is still young and his stuff may get better and if that is the case, he could very well be a lot better than a #4 or #5.

by uthornfan on Aug 1, 2007 12:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And on MaxRam
he was nowhere near, only 21 on Cle's list. His profile has jumped and I see him as, say, a top 200 type but once again I'd be surprised if he slipped on there. He's not really their type.

by Brett Perryman on Jul 31, 2007 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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