More on the problem with Torii Hunter
One of the things that caught my eye with Evan Grant's projected five year lineups was Torii Hunter still manning centerfield in 2012.
Hunter is 32 right now. In 2012, he'll be 37 years old. I don't think he's going to be able to handle centerfield at age 37.
And looking at his PECOTA comps, you have to wonder whether he'll even be able to still play at age 37.
The #1 PECOTA comp for Hunter is Glenallen Hill. He was a part-time player in his early 30s, and out of baseball by age 37.
#2 is Gary Ward, whose last full-time season was at age 33, and who was out of baseball by age 37.
#4 is Brian Jordan, done as a full-time player by age 35, although he kept playing through his age 37 season.
#5 and #6 are Tiger teammates Larry Herndon and Chet Lemon. Lemon, to me, is one of the best comps to Hunter, and his age 35 season was his last. Herndon was a part-time player in his early-30s, and was done by 35.
#7, Cesar Cedeno, was done as a full-timer by age 33, and done altogether by age 35. The elder Gary Matthews, #8, had his last full-time season was age 35, and his last season at age 36.
#10, Al Cowens, was done as a full-timer by age 33, and retired before he turned 35. #11, Dave Henderson, was done by 35. So were #14 and #18, Jeffrey Leonard and Bernard Gilkey.
The only guys on the comp list who really sustained solid careers into their late 30s are Andre Dawson and Moises Alou. And Hunter isn't in their league as a hitter.
Torii Hunter isn't an elite centerfielder. He's a good, not great, player who is going to be worse, not better, over the next five years than his previous five years. He's a guy who will probably be no more than a 4th outfielder, if that, four years from now.
Please, please, please...no Torii Hunter in Texas.
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Comments
Agree
by meatbonelefty on Aug 14, 2007 2:31 PM CDT 0 recs
I'm not...
I'm using the PECOTA comps to show how similar players have aged.
by Adam J. Morris on
Aug 14, 2007 2:34 PM CDT
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How about also....
by doolindalton on Aug 14, 2007 2:41 PM CDT 0 recs
Yah
I'm believing he could be up by next year. Timely to get some power in the lineup, too.
by hightowersmith on
Aug 14, 2007 2:47 PM CDT
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No OFs this winter...
Big Z is the only guy on this FA market that will be worth the money he gets a few years from now, and it just so happens he fits the mold of the Rangers biggest need. Big, intense power pitcher with alot of fire on the mound...He'd be the inning eater the Rangers had hoped Millwood and Padilla would be.
Zambrano, Millwood, McCarthy, Padilla, Gabbard looks miles better than Millwood, McCarthy, Padilla, Gabbard and ___.
by N41D on Aug 14, 2007 2:53 PM CDT 0 recs
Hunter
by trza on Aug 14, 2007 2:55 PM CDT 0 recs
Supposedly...
by Adam J. Morris on
Aug 14, 2007 2:59 PM CDT
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blech
by trza on
Aug 14, 2007 3:00 PM CDT
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i'd bet you'd
by willamos2 on
Aug 14, 2007 3:07 PM CDT
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A 27 year old version of Cameron...
by Adam J. Morris on
Aug 14, 2007 3:10 PM CDT
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Adam
by Clueless on
Aug 14, 2007 3:33 PM CDT
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Yep, about what I've been saying.....
by tklawless on
Aug 14, 2007 3:10 PM CDT
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If that's true, you've nothing to worry about Adam
by Brian Thomas on
Aug 14, 2007 3:15 PM CDT
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I think he is.
by OKC Ranger Fan on
Aug 14, 2007 3:09 PM CDT
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Adam, you can post as often as you'd like...
by chief on Aug 14, 2007 3:15 PM CDT 0 recs
Kosuke Fukudome.....
by JB on Aug 14, 2007 3:26 PM CDT 0 recs
injured and maybe expensive
by t ball on
Aug 14, 2007 3:36 PM CDT
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Daniels
by t ball on Aug 14, 2007 3:35 PM CDT 0 recs
I agree
unfortunately this will have Tom Hicks fingerprints all over it.
by rkh on
Aug 14, 2007 4:20 PM CDT
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Much as I hate to say it
Who knows? We'll see what happens in the offseason, but I'm less concerned about Hicks than I used to be.
by rodinuk on
Aug 14, 2007 5:02 PM CDT
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I think that Daniels' plan is a little more
I think that part of his big picture view is to build a strong base, but I think that he intends to do that along the way where he can (by picking up extra picks, deadline deals when out of the race, signing DR and Venezuelan kids, getting a prospect added to a deal when possible - like Galarraga or Paisano) rather than the sole focal point of his tenure, if you will.
And this isn't in response to you but others I've seen question a direction, I think that the reason that some are unable to observe a direction is that they are taking too simple minded of an approach, and either aren't interested giving Daniels enough credit for whatever reason or aren't intelligent enough to appreciate a multifaceted approach.
by zywica on
Aug 14, 2007 5:58 PM CDT
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Very nice summary
Although he did say in the chat session last week that the CF is a priority he did not mention free agency and stressed defense and how it affects the pitching staff. Whether or not he thinks Hunter fits that profile...
I completely agree with your last paragraph, and would add that it applies somewhat to perceptions of Hicks as well. If Daniels has convinced Hicks that this approach is worth sticking through some tough times for, he may have done Ranger fans a tremendous service.
by t ball on
Aug 14, 2007 10:39 PM CDT
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this is stupid
by pwh9980 on Aug 14, 2007 3:45 PM CDT 0 recs
It would help if...
by TedFord on Aug 14, 2007 3:54 PM CDT 0 recs
id rather sign Jones
by slash on Aug 14, 2007 3:54 PM CDT 0 recs
Abreu
If he performs, we can probably trade him in July, as well.
by clark on Aug 14, 2007 4:43 PM CDT 0 recs
Adam
by Ed Coffin on Aug 14, 2007 4:47 PM CDT 0 recs
Hating Hunter
I'm all for it unless Murphy, Byrd, Boggs, etc. can prove they can be at BEST as good as Hunter will be BAD in his final year here...
by Walter Sobchak on Aug 14, 2007 4:51 PM CDT 0 recs
It isn't
Why spend for five years of stardom when all you can get is two, or three tops, of better than average play? No one says he isn't good.
To me, the suggested contract he'd have to get would be pretty bad by the time the club is in a position to benefit from it.
by Ed Coffin on
Aug 14, 2007 4:58 PM CDT
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Exactly
I just thought about getting Lofton for another one year contract. I wonder how would that impact the Rangers 2008 draft picks?
by WyoRanger on
Aug 14, 2007 5:32 PM CDT
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Lofton
by Randy Richardson on
Aug 14, 2007 5:39 PM CDT
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Lofton
Obviously, he's not plan A, but if Daniels can't work a trade for a kid, Kenny would probably be the best FA option, no?
by Brian Thomas on
Aug 14, 2007 6:42 PM CDT
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right
by Walter Sobchak on
Aug 14, 2007 5:40 PM CDT
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David DeJesus
He doesn't have the upside/won't cost as much in a trade as a Milledge/Ellsbury, and he won't be as expensive and lock you up as long as Hunter/Rowand/Jones.
They have a lot of internal OF options and I believe that he can be had.
He's not a superstar, but he's cheap, you'd have control over him for a few years until you can develop someone else, he's a nice, above average player that could lead-off and he's a low risk of being bad.
Ryan Church and Coco Crisp are a other possibilities in this mold, but I haven't been able to watch them near as much as I have DeJesus.
by badradiorules on Aug 14, 2007 6:31 PM CDT 0 recs
Yes. We are of like minds here...
by Brian Thomas on
Aug 14, 2007 6:43 PM CDT
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DeJesus
by RCCook on
Aug 14, 2007 7:13 PM CDT
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He'd cost a lot
I'd guess that you'd have to give Hurley, Saltalamacchia or McCarthy. Kinsler or Wilson might get you in the area.
by zywica on
Aug 14, 2007 7:16 PM CDT
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Dejesus
The Royals have him locked up on a club friendly contract and I'm pretty sure that they would want young pitching for him. The last thing I want to do is trade away young pitching to fill a hole on a rebuilding team.
DeJesus contract:
08:$2.5M
09:$3.6M
10:$4.7M
11:$6M club option ($0.5M buyout)
Why would they trade away a productive young player with that type of contract?
by tricer on
Aug 14, 2007 7:24 PM CDT
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DeJesus
The reason they would be willing to trade him is because cheap, productive young players they have, any decent young starting pitching, they lack.
Their biggest need on offense is at catcher and ss. They may be interested in Laird or Arias.
Plus, even with that contract he's still the most expensive of all of their young outfielders I believe.
by badradiorules on
Aug 14, 2007 9:37 PM CDT
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STRONGLY disagree
You just don't know how young pitchers will develop and adapt to higher levels. The only way to make sure that you have some quality trickling up to the ML level is to stockpile them down below.
DeJesus is a nice player and I wouldn't mind having him, but what is he really going to do, other than plug the CF hole with decent performance/cost for the next 3 years. He is not a difference maker, and I don't want to deal away any young pitching unless we are getting back a guy that will be a difference maker for the next contending Ranger club.
Out of that group of 5 pitchers, I'd guess that maybe you will get a solid late inning reliever, a middle rotation starter, and a back end starter. There is always the chance that one of them really "gets it" and becomes more of a #2 starter type. At this point there is no telling which will develop into what, but the best chance to maximize the value to the big club is to keep all of them until they are mature.
Remember Aaron Harang, and remember that just because we have a nice collection of young pitchers - that doesn't mean that we need to go trading some of them off just to fill holes at the ML level with slightly above average players.
by tricer on
Aug 14, 2007 11:12 PM CDT
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How do you propose fixing the outfield?
by Brian Thomas on
Aug 15, 2007 8:30 AM CDT
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Fixing OF vs. Fixing SP
I would look to trade Laird, Aki, and possibly Kinsler or Duran and possibly another established ML relief arm to attempt to find a long-term solution in the OF, but that would be far less of a priority than getting the rotation in shape. Dirkatron's idea of bringing in a BORP like Patterson also makes some sense.
If push came to shove I'd be all right with running Byrd, Cruz, Murphy, Boggs, Diaz, and Cat out there next year in some type of OF rotation, as long as I could hang onto all the minor league SP depth.
I just think that the name of the game these days is developing your own young starters, and the best way to achieve that goal is to cling tightly to all the minor league arms. Maybe Volquez, Harrison, Kiker, Poveda, et al don't amount to much, but if just one of them hits their ceiling - there is a ton of value in that, and if only one of them does - I want to make sure they do it in a Texas uniform. Until the rotation is upgraded, the difference between Byrd and DeJesus in CF isn't going to make much of a difference in W/L.
Also if you are going to get max value by trading pitching prospects, I believe you need to wait until they are near ML ready. Guys like Poveda, Phillips, Schlact, Harrison, Gallaraga, etc probably don't have a ton of value at the moment. But once they reach AA/AAA or have broken into the ML, then you could deal from an excess, if it exists, and receive much better value than you would by dealing them now.
by tricer on
Aug 15, 2007 11:46 AM CDT
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example of last sentence
I think it pays to try and develop the young pitchers all the way to the cusp of the big leagues before trading them, unless you are dead certain that they will hit a wall before they reach that point.
by tricer on
Aug 15, 2007 11:53 AM CDT
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I'm not trying
Trade is the only other option. I think that we are close to figuering out our rotation, at least for the short-term. Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Hurley and Gabbard next year with Volquez, Harrison, Galarraga, Loe, Tejeda and Rupe as insurance. Also, Kiker, Poveda, Phillips, Jones, etc. ready in a couple of years and too many guys to count for three or four years down the road.
I also would disagree that most guys gain value as they come up. Some of these guys have reached their ceiling and peak value and their value will drop as soon as they begin to fail at the upper levels. Also, the Royals lack serious depth of pitching in their minor league system. If we can do it for Aki and Laird, I'm great with that.
by badradiorules on
Aug 15, 2007 12:42 PM CDT
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I don't know about them lacking
by zywica on
Aug 14, 2007 11:13 PM CDT
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agreed
by tricer on
Aug 15, 2007 12:12 AM CDT
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If I could make a deal now
by DJCahill on
Aug 15, 2007 11:20 AM CDT
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The DRays
And of course they'll have the #1 pick next year too. Add all of that, plus Longoria, plus Brignac, to what they have growing on their major league roster, and it's really hard to see how they couldn't be very good soon.
Side note, if they don't sign Price they'll be the first team ever to have the first two picks of the draft.
by zywica on
Aug 15, 2007 1:21 AM CDT
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Although I've done zero research
by zywica on
Aug 15, 2007 1:24 AM CDT
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If that happens
by t ball on
Aug 15, 2007 10:21 AM CDT
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They will take...
by Adam J. Morris on
Aug 15, 2007 11:41 AM CDT
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I disagree and your right
However, they do lack any kind of organizational depth in pitching. Meche, Bannister, Greinke, Soria and Davies are nice young arms, even De la Rosa has come a long ways.
However, outside of Hochevar (who I would rank behind Hurley by the way), there really isn't much else along the lines of quality arms.
Again, if they mention Hurley or want a ton in return, I'm out. However, if they try to use him as a way of adding a catcher and nice A+ arm, I'm in with that.
by badradiorules on
Aug 15, 2007 12:52 PM CDT
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You're right
by zywica on
Aug 15, 2007 6:50 PM CDT
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Dejesus
by M_Y_isDANK on Aug 14, 2007 7:09 PM CDT 0 recs
Would you give Eric Hurley?
by zywica on
Aug 14, 2007 7:14 PM CDT
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Just out of curiosity...
by benmor78 on Aug 14, 2007 7:40 PM CDT 0 recs
from the book
by tricer on
Aug 14, 2007 7:44 PM CDT
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Fun with copy and paste
:)
by Chris Martin on Aug 14, 2007 9:48 PM CDT 0 recs







