Rangers steering clear of f.a. starters this offseason
T.R. Sullivan reports that Rangers management is talking sense in regards to free agent starting pitching this offseason:
The chances of getting starting pitching help this winter through the free agent market is bleak, especially with Carlos Zambrano re-signing with the Chicago Cubs this week.
"I'd say I don't envy teams that feel compelled to go to the free agent market to fill starting pitching needs," assistant general manager Thad Levine said. "I don't think we're compelled. We'll be opportunistic if the right deal is there, but I don't feel we enter the offseason feeling the need to sign free agent starting pitching."
Right now, the two best free agent pitchers could be Livan Hernandez, who is 9-7 with a 4.86 ERA for the Diamondbacks, and Carlos Silva, who is 9-12 with a 4.17 ERA for the Twins. Paul Byrd is 9-12 with a 4.41 ERA, but the Indians gave an $8 million option to him for 2008 and are expected to exercise.
Six of the most well-known potential free agent starters are currently on the disabled list: Bartolo Colon (elbow), Freddy Garcia (shoulder), Randy Wolf (shoulder), Jaret Wright (shoulder), Kenny Rogers (elbow) and Matt Clement (shoulder). Jason Jennings (elbow) and Curt Schilling (shoulder) have also been on the disabled list this year.
"There is significant risk," Levine said.
Other free agents to be that aren't mentioned by Sullivan include Jon Lieber, Livan Hernandez, Carlos Silva, and Victor Zambrano. Update [2007-8-19 21:9:26 by Adam J. Morris]: -- Well, he does mention Hernandez and Silva, but I was looking at the list of hurt guys and missed them. Sorry.
Realistically, the Rangers shouldn't be dipping their toes in the free agent starting pitching market this offseason.
At this point, Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, and Gabbard are probably locked in to the 1 thru 4 slots in the rotation, leaving Kam Loe, Edinson Volquez, and Eric Hurley vying for the #5 slot.
There's a few guys on the list I'd have mild interest in on a one or two year deal, but I don't think there's anyone there that you'd want to pay retail for.
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Levine?
Levine
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 19, 2007 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah that's what
by Brett Perryman on Aug 19, 2007 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions
THE GENERIC RANGER FAN...
that said... i have a bad feeling we're going to ink a centerfielder... and that gerald laird's time is up.
Good
Now, if we could only steer clear of aging good CFs who will cost too much.
Req
Y'know...
Torii on the contract he'll require (~5 yr) is too much of a block. Having to slide him to a corner for Borbon to play, just as his age-decline is hitting...that's an outcome JD will avoid.
Andruw might be a different story, but probably not.
Now, I wonder if Cameron is at the top of JD's board at this point. That I could see, although when Lofton gets $6m for a year, I wonder if a guy like Cameron would be cost-prohibitive. He might be a nice fit for the 2008-to-2009 transition to winning.
Anyway, carry on...
by hightowersmith on Aug 19, 2007 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah...
by slimshadty12 on Aug 19, 2007 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Free Agents
True...
I'm just saying it might be easier to pass up on Hunter knowing that you might have some adequate guys to play center in a few years while you plug in a guy like Cameron/Rowand or Byrd/Murphy/Boggs/ etc.
by slimshadty12 on Aug 19, 2007 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions
cost prohibitive
If there was a good OF that would help us out for the next couple of years (Cameron?), we could afford to pay them 10-15 million a year, as long as the contract length was only a couple of years.
ubergood.
good
Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Gabbard, Loe, Volquez, Hurley
Oh, and by the way
Rheinecker in the rotation at Loe's expense
by rkh on Aug 19, 2007 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Did you read the article?
"But manager Ron Washington admitted the last spot in the rotation is down to either Loe or John Rheinecker."
From the DMN blog:
"The Rangers are still deciding who they will move out of the rotation for Volquez. But, barring injuries, it's between John Rheinecker and Kameron Loe."
sorry
I cant believe that.
Loe's been shown little respect from the Rangers this year.......going all the way back to spring training.
just curious.........who do you think deserves the ball more, Loe or Rheino?
by rkh on Aug 20, 2007 8:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Loe is
by Brett Perryman on Aug 20, 2007 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions
I certainly agree.................then
by rkh on Aug 20, 2007 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions
he could be thinking...
by Walter Sobchak on Aug 20, 2007 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
While Loe
Adam...
Why not spend some of A-Rod's opt-out money on a 1 year flier on one of these guys?
Rotation
But if you are holding out any hope of being competitive, you are fooling yourself. Millwood has been horrible, Padilla remains an injury risk (last start not withstanding), Loe isn't good as a starter, and who know what the deal is with McCarthy's injury. Will Carroll brought up the name Kurt Ainsworth when discussing it, which is not good at all.
by BurntOrange on Aug 19, 2007 7:56 PM CDT reply actions
And how will 2008 change if we sign any FAs?
don't understand
PR
However, I think everyone assumes that, for PR purposes, the Rangers are going to sign at least 1 big free agent name. Otherwise, they will probably get slammed by terrible/lazy national writers for failing their fans this off-season.
Really, we are just hoping that the signing we don't really need will be for a short time span so that we aren't stuck with a prohibitive contract in '10 when the Rangers are finally good.
That is interesting
anyone else?
I personally want to see at least 2 of the guys in that last group in the rotation next year.
For that to happen Millwood or Padilla would have to be moved.
If we arent truly competitive until '09, which of Padilla and Millwood would be the least likely to be helping us at that point? I say deal whomever is the answer to that question. and dont tell me you cant deal these guys in the offseason(you may get less than you want but with their contracts being reasonable(Millwood's moreso than Padilla's) I think you could certainly move either of them.)
That would leave next years rotation looking something like Millwood, Gabbard, B-Mac, Volquez, and Hurley(or Loe if Hurley's not ready.)
FWIW-I think you could get a pretty good return on Millwood this offseason, although I'd much rather deal Padilla.
by rkh on Aug 19, 2007 9:19 PM CDT reply actions
nope
by Randy Richardson on Aug 19, 2007 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Padilla
If it is true that no team would trade anything for a guy like Padilla, then I would really hope that JD is finding another team's Padilla and will take him for salary dump.
I mean if there is a guy out there that had an injury riddled season and might have some makeup concerns, but has an upside of 200 ip w/ mid 4's ERA in our ballpark w/ good ratios, and all that we have to do to get him is take on salary - then that would be a perfect opportunity for this team and I'd hope that JD would be all over it.
I know we have some young guys that we want to take a look at, but if there is an opportunity to pick up a high ceiling, near his prime SP, and all we have to do is take on the salary - then that is a perfect opportunity for us. With any luck, we'd have an outstanding trade chip, or a new rotation horse.
Worst case we're out some money and the payroll ends up in the 60s instead of the 50s.
I'm confused
because you just described Padilla. Why would we want another Padilla.
I'm a big fan of staying with what we have. You would get killed trading low on Millwood and Padilla. However, I think it is much more likely that they pitch closer to 2006 in 2008
by badradiorules on Aug 20, 2007 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not saying trade Padilla
Everyone keeps saying that Padilla has no trade value. If that is true I'd like to find another team that has a similar pitcher to Padilla and acquire him for nothing but a salary dump.
Kinda agree
I also truly believe that Padilla could put that season together and be the 4th best pitcher in the rotation.
I really believe that Millwood will be much better next year and Gabbard and McCarthy will be slightly better than that next year. Also, with Hurley or Volquez, there's a good chance that they could be that good or better.
I believe if we are going to take on salary it needs to be a hitter. Remember we just gave up 2 earned runs in a three game series and lost two of three.
by badradiorules on Aug 20, 2007 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I've felt
Potential front rotation types
I say again that going into 2008 with a rotation of Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Volquez and Gabbard will be a disaster.
by BurntOrange on Aug 19, 2007 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions
maybe so
Well
We darn sure didn't need another reliever last year, but we still signed one and then flipped him for something of value. We actually need a starting pitcher.
by BurntOrange on Aug 19, 2007 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Under the same circumstances:
by Brett Perryman on Aug 19, 2007 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, but...
Who in that group would qualify?
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 19, 2007 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions
None
by Brett Perryman on Aug 19, 2007 9:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Come on
On a one-year deal, I would probably have interest in both Freddy Garcia and Jason Jennings.
Jennings is just one year removed from a 210 inning, 127 ERA+ season in Colorado, and Garcia is a 111 ERA+ pitcher for his career.
by BurntOrange on Aug 19, 2007 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Jennings
Heck, same with Garcia.
by hightowersmith on Aug 19, 2007 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Jennings and Garcia aren't considered Lieber
by Jukebox Joe on Aug 19, 2007 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Meh
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 19, 2007 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Well....
Which, again, may be the right approach, given how horrible our OF projects to be right now.
by BurntOrange on Aug 19, 2007 10:09 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't see how...
Well...
But replacing Edinson Volquez or Eric Hurley with Jon Lieber or Carlos Silva won't make any difference.
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 19, 2007 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions
No, it isn't
I don't see how going with Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Gabbard, and Loe or Volquez or Hurley is more of a write-off approach than those first four plus Matt Clement or someone of that ilk.
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 19, 2007 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Are you confident
...that Gabbard is a ML SP?
I'm not 100% on either.
Well...
However, unless you are ready to jettison one of them, it still doesn't make sense to bring in a veteran starter.
by Adam J. Morris on Aug 20, 2007 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Eh
Gagne, ostensibly the best reliever out there, got you Gabbard, an aging 4th outfielder and a nice but iffy rookie leaguer.
I like the deal, but it's hardly worth repeating with some mediocre starter we pick up this winter. Actually upcoming FA starters wouldn't fetch it anyway.
I agree with Adam: Hurley (and maybe Galaragga) are going to get spots in 2008 with some combo of Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, Gabbard, Loe and Volquez. Why squeeze those candidates for possible 2008 trade bait? Not worth the opportunity cost.
I thought we were sick of the Mark Clarks... Now we're trying Beavens, Mains and Felizes. Considering good starters actually don't usually move (you're right), this plan seems more pragmatic.
by hightowersmith on Aug 19, 2007 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions
If by...
Aren't available."
you mean right now, maybe not. But sure they are from time to time. Do I need to make a list? And I'm not saying that it has to be Roy Oswalt or Johan, but #1s, #2s or maybe #2/3s. Front side or potential front side of the rotation guys move fairly regularly. You just have to work your butt off or be one of the charmed franchises to go get them when they do.
by Brett Perryman on Aug 19, 2007 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Potential front rotation types
Aaron Harang - I think we would all agree that he's not that good, certainly not good enough to go overpay for.
Dan Haren - It look Mark Mulder to get him.
Tim Hudson - I'll give you that one, but when someone of his caliber (at the time he was traded) is available, it's doubtful we have the assets to get him.
Brad Penny - probably the best example of the type of guy you might be able to get, if you are willing to overpay in prospects.
Andy Pettitte - special circumstances both times he changed teams.
So, if a "potential front rotation type" is someone you can count on taking the ball every fifth day and giving you reasonably solid innings, those guys don't really move that much, and I wouldn't be too confident in our chances of getting the few that do.
by BurntOrange on Aug 19, 2007 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Well
by BurntOrange on Aug 19, 2007 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Something more advanced
At any rate, regardless of metric, there are more than 20 front rotation starters in MLB.
by Brett Perryman on Aug 19, 2007 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions
List:
Johan Santana
Dan Haren
Erik Bedard
Josh Beckett
Curt Schilling
John Lackey
C.C. Sabathia
Andy Petitte
Dice-K
Felix Hernandez
Scott Kazmir
Roy Halladay
Justin Verlander
You could argue Wang, Bonderman, Buerhle and Carmona
NL:
Chris Young
Brad Penny
Jake Peavy
Brandon Webb
Tim Hudson
John Smoltz
Roy Oswalt
Cole Hamels
Carlos Zambrano
Dontrelle Willis?
Ian Snell?
Noah Lowry?
by Pitcher15 on Aug 19, 2007 11:03 PM CDT up reply actions
aces
Guys like Lincecum, Rich Hill, and Jered Weaver are already getting pretty close. I like any of those guys better than a Lowry or Willis from this point forward.
injuries?
then there are guys that would obviously be our aces: Oliver Perez, John Maine, Javier Vazquez, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, James Shields, A.J. Burnett, Joe Blanton, David Bush, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Chuck James, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland, Dontrelle Willis, Chris Capuano, Mike Mussina
Oh...and for the record...I'd take Aaron Harang over any of our starters in a NEW YORK MINUTE.
by Walter Sobchak on Aug 20, 2007 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Good list
Willis, Snell, and Lowry are definitely not #1, and might not even be #2s.
Also, that's not to mention the #1 potential starters who've been injured/not played:
Clemens
Liriano
Harden
Pedro
Carpenter
Sheets
Also, Harang's definitely pitching like a #1. Not sure where Burnt is getting the idea that he's masquerading as a #1.
A K/BB ratio of around 4 and a K/9 of 8.33 is pretty damn good. And he's been that good for 2 years (while he was pretty good the year before).
Harang's the real thing.
Req
Like I said above
Chris Young
Kelvim Escobar
Tim Hudson
Josh Beckett
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Dan Haren
Brad Penny
Derek Lowe
All have moved within the last three years. Young is a whole other discussion, I know. Anyway, they're not just flying around all over the place, but that's about three a year, and if you're willing to pay the price, you can get one from time to time.
If the Rangers had had the money/assets/interest/foresight at the time, I don't know that anyone on that list was out of reach. In other words, we talk about how we can't get pitchers to come here, but possibly with the exception of Lowe, that wouldn't even have been the issue with those guys. And really only Haren was a case of "you have to have stud pitching to trade for stud pitching."
by Brett Perryman on Aug 19, 2007 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions
If Millwood and Padilla
how
by Walter Sobchak on Aug 20, 2007 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions
i completely agree with Z
by sanangelofan on Aug 19, 2007 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Who is the true ace
by BurntOrange on Aug 19, 2007 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions
THAT'S EASY...
heard he's good.
by oc on Aug 19, 2007 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions
true ace
by sanangelofan on Aug 19, 2007 11:36 PM CDT up reply actions
so no Free Agents next year
yo soy Horsedooty!

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