Debunking the Sammy Sosa, HOFer myth -- Part 1

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 1, 2007 8:02 PM CDT in News Comment 121 comments

Throughout this season, Sammy Sosa has been referred to as "future Hall of Famer Sammy Sosa."

To the extent that any doubts are expressed over his candidacy, they generally center around the doubts over the legitimacy of his numbers, the assumption that many people have that Sosa used steroids (or some sort of Performance Enhancing Drugs) during his career. There seems to be no questioning, though, about whether his performance throughout his career is Hall of Fame caliber. The question seems to be whether the numbers are tainted...because the numbers themselves, it seems to be assumed, are Hall of Fame caliber.

But in looking at Sosa's career, I don't think it is such an obvious slam-dunk that he's a Hall of Famer. I don't mean in the sense of whether he'll be elected or not...rather, I mean in the sense of whether he deserves to be elected, given his body of performance.

Regardless of the steroid cloud, I don't think Sammy Sosa was a good enough player in his career to warrant enshrinement in the Hall of Fame.

So, over the next week or two, I'm going to do a multi-part series, looking at this from several angles.

Part 1, after the jump, is an application of the Keltner test in weighing Sosa's candidacy.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No. The only time period he might have even been in the discussion was from 1998 through 2002, but even then, Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and Ken Griffey, Jr., were generally considered the top players in baseball.

2. Was he the best player on his team?
Until 1998, Mark Grace was probably the best player on what were generally not very good Cubs teams. From 1998 through 2002, he was the best player on the Cubs, although only one of those teams (the 1998 team) was a playoff team. On the first place 2003 Cubs team, he was, at best, the fourth best player on the team, behind Mark Prior, Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano. Alex Gonzalez was also ahead of him that season in WARP.

So Sosa was the best player on his team for a stretch of five years, and otherwise was not.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Other than from 1998 through 2002, the answer is an easy "no."

From 1998 through 2002, the best right fielders in baseball included Sosa, Vlad Guerrero, Juan Gonzalez, Manny Ramirez, Bobby Abreu, Shawn Green and Larry Walker. Sosa was first among RFs in VORP in 1998, fifth in 1999, first in 2000 (although virtually tied with Guerrero and Manny), first (by a mile) in 2001, and second in 2002 (in a virtual tie with Bobby Abreu, well behind Vlad Guerrero).

Sosa was easily the best right fielder in baseball in 2001, although for that five year stretch, the edge probably goes to Vlad Guerrero, who was about equal to Sosa offensively and much better defensively.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

No. Sosa's Cubs teams were generally not very good. He was the best player on the 1998 Cubs team that won a one game playoff against the Giants to earn a wild card berth, and Sosa was 2 for 4 with 2 runs scored in the 5-3 Cub victory in that game. However, the Cubs only ended up in a one game playoff because of a 9-11 stretch to end September, during which Sosa put up a .271/.361/.565 line that was well below his performance the rest of the season.

The Cubs game from behind in 2003 to take the N.L. Central, but Sosa's impact was minimal, as he went .206/.268/.490 in September as the Cubs were making their push.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

No. He was pretty much done as an effective everyday player by age 35.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No. Among those who are eligible, Bert Blyleven and Ron Santo, among others, were better players than Sosa.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Yes. Of the 10 most similar batters to Sosa, there are 7 HOFers, 2 active players who are likely HOFers (Ken Griffey, Jr., and Gary Sheffield), and one controversial borderline case (Fred McGriff).

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

This is where it gets tricky...the HOF tests put him in the middle of the pack, but realistically, the only HOF caliber numbers he has are his home runs and RBIs. His career OPS is not that impressive...he trails, among others, Moises Alou, Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds, and Nomar Garciaparra in career OPS. He's not in the top 100 in career hits. He's got the homers, but almost nothing else.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Well, there is the PED cloud that hangs over everything that happened in baseball during Sosa's career, and particularly during the time frame from 1998 through 2002, when Sosa put up his huge numbers. He's widely considered one of the poster kids for steroid use in baseball. So one could certainly argue that Sosa's statistics might be tainted.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

No. Among outfielders, Dick Allen, Albert Belle, and Dwight Evans are better.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Sosa had MVP-caliber seasons in 1998 (9.9 WARP3, .324 EQA, 4th in the N.L. in OPS) and in 2001 (14.1 WARP3, .368 EQA, 2nd in the N.L. in OPS), although he wasn't the best player in the N.L. either year (Mark McGwire and his 11.6 WARP3 was better in 1998, Barry Bonds and his 16.2 WARP3 was better in 2001). Those were the only two MVP-type seasons Sosa had.

Sosa finished 1st in the MVP voting in 1998, 2nd (to Bonds) in 2001, and otherwise, never finished higher than 8th in the balloting.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Sosa was a 7 time All Star, making it in each year from 1998 through 2002, plus 1995 and 2004. 1998 through 2002 were all All-Star caliber seasons, 2004 wasn't, and 1995 was borderline. His only clear All-Star caliber seasons were from 1998 through 2002.

I'd guess 5-7 All Star appearances puts you on the fringe of HOF candidates.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

The 2001 version? Absolutely. The 1998-2000, or the 2002, version, that had WARP3s of 8.8-9.9? Maybe. Any other version, with a high WARP3 of 6.7? No.

As noted earlier, the only Cub team that came close to winning the pennant was the 2003 Cubs (they of the famous "Bartman" episode), and Sosa was the 5th best player, in terms of WARP3, on that club.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

I'm lumping these two together. And given that everyone here is familiar with Sosa's history, and the cloud hanging over him, I'll leave it at that.

So...under the Keltner test, Sosa appears to be a fringe HOFer, at best, rather than the slam-dunk HOFer that many seem to consider him.

Next up...comparing Sosa's career to some true HOF-caliber right fielders.

0 recs | Comment 121 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

600 HR.

Slam dunk.

by DJCahill on Sep 1, 2007 8:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree

the 600 HR is all it is. You're right, the peripherals are marginal for a "HOF'er", but you can't overlook 600 HR's, steroids or otherwise.

"No team has any major strengths as all NFL players are roughly the same. If you cant run on third and one it isn't because of your players." - Sharky

by Chase Irwin on Sep 1, 2007 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

The only thing that could keep him out is PED speculation. But his peripheral numbers were have to be a lot worse than "above average" to offset the fact that he's one of 5 players with 600 homers, the other 4 being arguably 4 of the 15 or so greatest hitters ever.

by rubbersoul103 on Sep 1, 2007 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

600HR

I agree here. In the era he played in the 90s chances are pretty good that most players were on some form of PED. So the numbers aren't any more inflated than anyone elses from the 90's

600 is the new 500. it's the benchmark for a hr hitter.

Can you please Look into getting a less funny signature? That's sarcasm, btw. - Sharky

by rentz on Sep 1, 2007 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the problem

If Sosa gets in with 600, do you then say, okay, all the outfielders who are better than Sosa, but who aren't in already, deserve to go in as well?

Or do you say, well, these guys were better than Sosa, but because he snookered the Rangers into giving him a shot in 2007 and managed to get enough homers to get him to 600, he belongs in, but better players don't deserve to be in because they didn't hit some round number in some stat?

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 1, 2007 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

those other players deserve to go in as well.

"No team has any major strengths as all NFL players are roughly the same. If you cant run on third and one it isn't because of your players." - Sharky

by Chase Irwin on Sep 1, 2007 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's a slippery slope

all i'm saying is if they start keeping guys out with numbers like 600hr's because if suspected Ped use...then theres a huge list of guys they can't let in.

Now do I think sosa was one of the best of his era? not really. But the hall of fame has shown that they like their big numbers and that used to be 500hr's and now it's 600hr's.

While I understand and appreciate your point, I just think as numbers oriented as the hall is that he will be and probably should be a hall of famer.

Can you please Look into getting a less funny signature? That's sarcasm, btw. - Sharky

by rentz on Sep 1, 2007 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

on some of the other players mentioned, McGriff should be in the hall in my opinion and i have no problem with him getting in if sosa does. Belle is a borderline to me. But dwight evans deserves more consideration.

Can you please Look into getting a less funny signature? That's sarcasm, btw. - Sharky

by rentz on Sep 1, 2007 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I support Albert Belle...

because I support crazies.

He would definitely be a starting outfielder on my "All-Psycho All-Time Team."

by benmor78 on Sep 1, 2007 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

the hall of fame really should dedicate a wing to the crazies of baseball.

Can you please Look into getting a less funny signature? That's sarcasm, btw. - Sharky

by rentz on Sep 1, 2007 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, all the other OFs with 600

HRs get in as well.

Keltner test doesn't matter, VoRP doesn't matter, EQA doesn't matter.

You may not like it, but the tradition is that counting stats do matter.

by DJCahill on Sep 2, 2007 7:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"snookered" the Rangers?

The Rangers apparently were much better off with him than with your preferred choices of Craig Wilson or Jason Botts if playing to win was an option, which I believe was the plan at the beginning of the season.

by DJCahill on Sep 3, 2007 6:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

word

and it's not even close.

"Jon Daniels is going to end up being the best thing to ever happen to the Texas Rangers." - me, a long time ago...

by Longhorn on Sep 2, 2007 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Five

players in history have 600 homeruns right now. That's why he's an HOFer, no matter how much you hate him Adam

by nrrh on Sep 1, 2007 8:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Since I've been blogging...

...I've been accused of hating (among Rangers and former Rangers):

Sammy Sosa
Rod Barajas
Michael Young
R.A. Dickey
C.J. Wilson
Nick Masset
John Danks
Mark DeRosa

And there are probably some others I'm forgetting...

Plus, this doesn't even count the myriad of Sharky accusations...

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 1, 2007 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh, so you dont dislike sosa?

by DSheppard on Sep 1, 2007 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't like him being on the Rangers

But he doesn't fall in the category of guys like Eric Byrnes or Nick Swisher, though. Or Carlos Boozer.

I think there's a difference between "I don't want him playing because he's not good and blocking someone" and "I can't stand this player just because."

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 1, 2007 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano...

You hated everything about him.

"If you believe in yourself, drink your school, stay in drugs, and don't do milk - you can get work!" -A great man...

by Andrew F Medina on Sep 2, 2007 4:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adam...

liked the jaunty way that Soriano wore his leggings.

by benmor78 on Sep 2, 2007 4:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

With good reason

by Chris Martin on Sep 2, 2007 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Summer Of '98

The Sosa/McGwire HR duel during the summer of '98 really helped to "save" baseball. Even though I used quotations, '94 strike hurt the reputation of the game. Chicks dig the long ball, and so does every other baseball fan. What Sosa did during this summer was a major first step towards what we see today. I think it will be hard to overlook this fact. Does this merit HOF consideration? I don't know, but what Sosa has done for the game is not reflected in the numbers.

by Excel Hearts Choi on Sep 1, 2007 9:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

wao! I am impress!...

It is ok, not to like some player...

But.. this?

take the All Star for example... Ken Griffey, Jr has always being an automatic selection to all star games.. So at the end of his career people will say, well he just really EARNED 7 or 8 all stars, all other no count, he was hurt, there were betterplayer that year, etc. NO man... all counts, the same for Sosa... you are just adjusting things..

by engelsol on Sep 1, 2007 9:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Adam

did you delete the Clay Buchholz comments?

by coolaid on Sep 1, 2007 9:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Will you please

do the same thing for Craig Biggio?

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Sep 1, 2007 9:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Biggio?

No need. He's one of the 5 best second basemen of all time, I think. He's a no-doubt HOFer.

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 1, 2007 9:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well,

i have a hard time remembering Biggio being one of the best players in the 90's.

2B seemed to be Roberto Alomar and a lot of crap at the time. Not saying Biggio was crap, just that he didn't stand out to me as one of the best players in baseball.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Sep 1, 2007 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

Biggio is good but the whole point of this is that people who are considered HoF locks may or may not be. I don't get how you say one (who most people consider much more borderline) def is in while the other is a maybe

by bushe on Sep 1, 2007 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did a diary

a few months back that analyzed why Craig Biggio is a slam dunk HoFer. You can search for it if you really want to look it up.

He was easily one the of the best players of the 90s, and when he was playing absolutely spectacular baseball back then, he was greatly overlooked by the media.

At Baseball Reference, they have him listed with a 55.9 on the HoF standards list (>50 is a HoFer), and 172 on the HoF monitor list (>100 is a HoFer). There should be no doubt in anyones mind that Craig Biggio is a first ballot, shoe-in to the Hall of Fame. He deserves it.

by rangeressary on Sep 2, 2007 4:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

10 years ..

Sosa is the Major League record holder for most homers for a five-year, six-year, seven-year, eight-year, nine-year and 10-year spans.

He is the first National Leaguer to put together six consecutive 40-homer seasons and nine straight 100-RBI seasons.

by engelsol on Sep 1, 2007 9:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

60+ homers seasons

with 3, 60+ homers seasons. ONLY ONE

by engelsol on Sep 1, 2007 9:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So what?

Is the point of the HOF to honor those who have hit a bunch of homers, or those who have been the best players?

Sosa had a five year span was he was a great player. The rest of his career...meh.

If a great 5 years is enough to get you in, then Don Mattingly should be in.

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 1, 2007 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

wait

are you talking about Biggio now?

He had a nice run from 93-98, but he's been pretty "meh" before and after.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Sep 1, 2007 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That said...

That wasn't really the point of this post.

Of the 15 criteria I went through above, are there any where you disagree with my assessment?

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 1, 2007 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

answers

1-Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?
Man how many player in history can claim that?
But yes, during a 9 years span he was consider a TOP player in his generation..

2. Was he the best player on his team?
As you said, 09-2002 he was the best player in the cub... in 2003 he was the best position player. Man dont manipulate adding pitchers there. And just a question if Alex Gonzalez was better that year who do you think pitcher wouldnt want to see with bases loaded.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
7 All stars team is the answer... THE FANS, the players considered him the best those years.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Ok, no.. No many post seasons opportunities here. Bad teams.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?
Wao, man you are manipulating here...the 2005 with Orioles was a disaster.. 2006, didnt play for known reasons... 2007 after all what people think would happen... he is there.. everybody knows why teams didnt traded for him this months... it is not for his playing skills...

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
You have to compare position to position, it is unfair to compare a RF with a pitcher. And Ron Santo wasnot better than Sosa.. but that is a personal perception thing... you like him, it is ok.. but that is not the case for most people.. just. If he were better he would be a HOF a long time ago.. even via the veteran commitee.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?
YES, YES, and YES

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
Of course

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
Man, ok the steroid thing but think.. if it were true, and many many players were in steroids.. how is that only Sosa did what he did? Do he got an exclusive deal with a steroid vendor?

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?
Dick Allen? my God! Albert Belle? no consideration... Evans? I think he belongs...

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
Man here you tryed not only to underrate his best season but even to underrate the MVP he earned.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?
7 All star ... a big number..

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
We are talking about the Cubs... no luck there...

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
All Media and MLB credits the Summer of 98 with reviving baseball... it was only after the 2005, that people looked at Sosa in another way...

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Man.. what cloud... steroid? where the proof... Ruth was always drunk... there is proof... The standards should be the same for everybody...

(wrote fast, so forgive any grammar error)

by engelsol on Sep 1, 2007 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nobody is saying that...

Ruth being drunk made him a better baseball player.

by benmor78 on Sep 1, 2007 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know

It is just to point out that the off the field thing dont have to avoid a HOF career. And just to compare the sportmanship and guidelines that Adam was refering to...

by engelsol on Sep 1, 2007 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then you should...

have used an example like Whitey Ford, who was also a known cheater, not Babe Ruth being a drunk. Being drunk would make you a less effective ballplayer, not more, and is thus not comparable to Sosa.

by benmor78 on Sep 1, 2007 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you are right

my bad

by engelsol on Sep 1, 2007 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't under-rate being a drunk.......

plus it didn't hurt Mickey's popularity.

by tklawless on Sep 1, 2007 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

HOF

Isn't something I think about very much. But this idea sticks, and is first on my mind every time it's mentioned. The HOF is about achievments, not so much about being the best players.

I don't know if that's out of context or what. But it's how I've always seen it.

Time does funny things. The worst of which is, it keeps moving when you don't.

by Ed Coffin on Sep 1, 2007 10:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Achievements

I think I agree with this concept. It's not so much milestones. For example, it is more important to me that Sosa be in the hall of fame because he is the only player with multiple 60-HR seasons than that he hit 600 HR. I mean 600 HR is huge, but if he onle had 588, I still say he was a HOFer because of the 60 HR seasons. Whatever you want to say about his career as a whole, that 5 year stretch was very, very impressive.

by Brandon Wilson on Sep 2, 2007 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Craig biggio test

I am not very good at this but this is my responses, many I don't have a great grasp on but I am sure others can fill in what I missed or left out:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
No.
2. Was he the best player on his team?
he played with Jeff Bagwell all those years in Houston. In Many instances, Bagwell was a better player on the Astros. In a couple of years you could argue Biggio was better but it would be close. So Sosa was the best player on his team for a stretch of five years, and otherwise was not.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
From 1995-1998, he was without argument the best 2nd baseman in baseball. Many other years he was either the best or right there. No doubt at his position. Best in the league, no.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Teams that Biggio played on won 4 Division titles, a Wild Card Spot, and of course The NL rep in the WS in 2005. Hard to argue that he did not play a significant role in all those years.
5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?
Yes. He was a regular until almost the age of 40.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
Someone else will have to answer this..I don't know.
7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?
Yes. Of the 10 most similar batters to Sosa, there are 7 HOFers, The other three are Roberto Alomar Lou Whittaker, and Vida Pinson.
8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
Per baseballreference.com, his HOF Standards rating is 41 in career rank and HOF Monitor is 59th. Both are above the standard used to gauge. However, Sosa's are better not comparing just mentioning.
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
No, he was a very good to great 2nd baseman for many years.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?
Someone will have to help with this.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
He did not win MVP, but had many MVP worthy seasons. He finished 4th in 1997, 5th in 1998, and 12th in 1999.
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?
He had 7 all-star seasons, he made it each year from 1994-1998.
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
His teams did win so I guess yes.

What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

No rule changes I am aware of; however, his sportsmanship and character are without doubt A+

by simbaa on Sep 1, 2007 10:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

oops

sorry for not spacing properly...the cutting and pasting from word did not work as well as I thought.

by simbaa on Sep 1, 2007 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

responses

response to answer 7 should be Biggio instead of Sosa.

I had used Adam's template and some of the things I did not get out.

by simbaa on Sep 1, 2007 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

All-Time Second Basemen

There are a few guys who were clearly better:

Roger Hornsby (one of the all-time greatest at any position and above Morgan IMO)
Joe Morgan
Napoleon Lajoie
Eddie Collins (top all-time in win shares among 2b)

After these four, I don't think anyone could make a rational argument that any second baseman would be fifth above Biggio. He is fifth all-time among 2b in win shares above bench and fourth all-time among 2b in win shares (tied with Lajoie).

I think it is absolutely ludicrous that people are saying he isn't a Hall of Famer.

by rangeressary on Sep 2, 2007 5:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about Roberto Alomar?

Two world series rings?

by BillyBobisdrunk on Sep 2, 2007 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chuck Knoblauch

He has three rings in the 1990s as a 2b...what's your point? Alomar was better than Biggio for a few years in the early 90s, but Biggio was better in the mid-90s and considerably better in the late-90s.

by rangeressary on Sep 2, 2007 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they were even in the mid 90's

by BillyBobisdrunk on Sep 3, 2007 1:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have an argument behind your point?

Or are you content just stating it?

by rangeressary on Sep 3, 2007 4:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here ya go...

Here are the traditional counting stats (HR, RBI, R, SB)?

1994-1996
Alomar - 38 HR, 197 RBI, 258 R, 104 SB
Biggio - 43 HR, 208 RBI, 282 R, 87 SB

So if you were to simply look at the traditional counting stats it looks like they were relatively even...but we all know that RBIs and runs rely more on the rest of the team...and Alomar's teams were MUCH better.

OPS
1994 - Alomar .838 OPS, Biggio .894 OPS (-.056)
1995 - Alomar .803 OPS, Biggio .889 OPS (-.086)
1996 - Alomar .938 OPS, Biggio .901 OPS (+.027)

So Alomar was better in one season during the mid-90s in terms of OPS. The differential between Alomar and Biggio during 1994 and 1995 is 2-3 times as great as Alomar's differential in 1996.

WARP
1994 - Alomar 5.2, Biggio 7.6
1995 - Alomar 6.0, Biggio 10.2
1996 - Alomar 9.7, Biggio 9.3

Once again, Alomar was slightly better in 1996, but Biggio was significantly better in 1994 and 1995.

EQA
1994 - Alomar .296, Biggio .322
1995 - Alomar .291, Biggio .318
1996 - Alomar .322, Biggio .295

The same trend continues. Biggio was better for two years and Alomar for one, although with this stat Alomar was significantly better than Biggio in 1996.

Whenever you factor in defense, Biggio still hold the edge over the three year period and rather significantly.

The point is that if you just look at home runs, RBIs, runs scored and stolen bases they look rather similar, but the fact of the matter is that Alomar was slightly better in 1996, but Biggio was much better in 1994 and 1995.

In my opinion that means that Biggio was better for the period of the mid-90s.

by rangeressary on Sep 3, 2007 5:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do count defense

Defense wins championships and Alomar was probably one of the best defensive second basemen in the game's history. Thank your for the stats for proving my point that they were even in the mid 90's.

by BillyBobisdrunk on Sep 3, 2007 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something worth considering

Adam, you already mentioned a few days ago that the BBWAA voting was already a joke. You present a pretty in-depth case against Sammy being a HOFer, but the reality is, the voters aren't going to care about WARP3 or EqA. It's all about the "mainstream" statistics, like homers, wins, and batting average.

Taking that into account, Sammy's 600 makes him a lock for the HoF in my eyes.

Baseball Time in Arlington

by jamcadbury on Sep 1, 2007 10:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

wow.

this is getting a bit ridiculous. without the PED cloud, he is an obvious, no doubt, first ballot HOFer.

sometimes you have to take more than just numbers into consideration. what Sosa along with Mcgwire did for baseball and the Cubs franchise has to be taken into consideration. but as for stats...

one of the greatest five year stretches of offensive production in the history of the sport, ten straight seasons of 35+ home runs, three 60+ HR seasons, 9 straight years of 100+ RBI (crap, sorry... i had forgotten that these are the stats that mean absolutely nothing - i'll have to go look up his PECOTA, EQA, BFW/PW, and Range Factor before i decide whether or not he was ever half as good as Pat Burrell is).

i say focus your time and energy on the "greatest Rangers of all time" list instead of this if you truly are that bored. but that's just me.

by disposablehero on Sep 1, 2007 10:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Facial, LeFleur!!

Total facial!!

Stick your slide rule up your bippy, Adam!

by benmor78 on Sep 1, 2007 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

without the PED cloud, he is an obvious, no doubt, first ballot HOFer.

But he shouldn't be. Which is the point I'm trying to make.

I'll be addressing some of your other points in future posts on the topic.

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 1, 2007 10:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok

I'll be addressing some of your other points in future posts on the topic.

i will wait with bated breath.

by disposablehero on Sep 1, 2007 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I'm reading this wrong...

but this seems a bit prickish to me. Hey, if you don't like the free ice cream, don't eat it.

by benmor78 on Sep 1, 2007 11:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

there's free ice cream???

Can you please Look into getting a less funny signature? That's sarcasm, btw. - Sharky

by rentz on Sep 2, 2007 7:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

im guessing

you read it the way he intended it

by slash on Sep 2, 2007 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

there is no such thing as free ice cream. Sorry.

"No team has any major strengths as all NFL players are roughly the same. If you cant run on third and one it isn't because of your players." - Sharky

by Chase Irwin on Sep 2, 2007 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

im guessing this is a joke

but not sure...........i hope it is, funny if it is.........but i cant tell anymore with the type of posters now, i think they're joking and theyre serious, even though you're not one of the jackasses

by slash on Sep 2, 2007 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, I'll do an abbreviated version for biggio...

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

No. He was probably the 2nd best for most of his career behind Bagwell, and after '98, he probably fell even further down on the list. He's probably about 7th now, which is probably higher than he'd be on most teams.

So Bagwell was never the best player on his team.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

I'd say no. That would have been Roberto Alomar, and in more recent years, it would probably have been Jeff Kent, Chase Utley, Soriano, etc.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

No. Biggio's Astros made the playoffs 6 times in his career. I'm not sure what his impact was, per se, on the pennant race, but his playoff OPS of .620 isn't exactly screaming out "clutch performer".

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

On most teams, probably not. On the Astros, he was forced into the role due to his popularity among Houstonians. He was pretty much done as an effective everyday player by age 35.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

Not sure. It's debateable.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Yes. Obviously the 3000 hit marker typically means a guaranteed admission, but with the possible exclusion of Palmeiro, it would leave an opening to keep Biggio out too, regardless of whether or not Biggio fell prey to the PED witchhunt.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

His career OPS is not that impressive...he trails, among others, Barry Larkin and Lou Whitaker. He's got the hits and doubles (which I always thought was a silly stat to tout outside of hits), but almost nothing else.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Not really.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

No. See Roberto Alomar.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

He had a couple MVP caliber seasons, but he never won. The closest he came was 4th.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Biggio was a 7 time All Star, making it in 1991 and 1992 and each year from 1994 through 1998.

I'd guess 5-7 All Star appearances puts you on the fringe of HOF candidates.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Absolutely not.

What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

He got hit by a lot of pitches...another strange stat that Biggio supporters bring up that doesn't mean all that much to me.

So...under the Keltner test, Biggio appears to be a fringe HOFer, at best, rather than the slam-dunk HOFer that many seem to consider him.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Sep 1, 2007 10:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Biggio

I assume you are trying to make a point about the test, and thus were a little exaggeratory, but I still think he should be given a more honest assessment.

For #4, how could you argue that Biggio did not affect his team's pennant runs during those six seasons? Do you have no respect for a second baseman? Furthermore, in the 2005 season (the world series year), he was an above average hitter (107 OPS+), which is pretty darn significant considering we are talking about a second baseman and not an outfielder.

The answer to #5 is wrong as well. In 2004 and 2005 he had an above league average OPS as a CF in 2004 and 2B in 2005. He was 38 and 39 in those years, so I don't know why you say he was done after 35. Last year and this year he's been pretty bad, but you can't satisfactorily make your point without ignoring 2004 and 2005.

Let me give another opinion with #8 because OPS alone isn't a good indicator for a second baseman, and hitting alone misses half of what he did. According to baseballreference.com, in terms of HOF standards, he scores a 55.9 with above 50 being a likely hall of famer. In terms of the HOF monitor he scores a 172 with above 100 being a likely hall of famer.

For #10, there was a two or three year stretch in the early 90s when Roberto Alomar was clearly a better all around second baseman, but it can be argued that Biggio was better in the mid-90s and clearly better in the late-90s. In terms of win shares, we are talking about the fourth best second baseman of all-time, and in terms of win shares above bench, he's fifth all-time. I think Biggio clearly was the best player at 2b for the decade of the 90s, and was the best in the league for the mid-late 90s. I would love to see how you can say that Alomar deserves admission before Biggio, because I don't think it can be done.

If you answer the Keltner test based on what I've just argued with your other answers, then he is a Hall of Famer.

When you consider that he is in the top 10 all-time in Power/Speed #, that he's in the top five ever in doubles, he's in the top 25 for hits, top 30 for total bases and runs created and in the top 15 all-time for runs scored...then he's a surefire, first ballot hall of famer.

by rangeressary on Sep 2, 2007 5:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i got one typo in there

Bagwell = biggio in #1 in the last sentence.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Sep 1, 2007 10:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I understand the stats with Sosa

obviously 600 HR is a HOF player....but the real question for me lies in the PED, if it is ever proven that he did use PED then he can't go in, no matter how many HR's he hit, and that goes for Bonnds as well. If Sosa is not found to have used
PED then he is in. However should Sosa be a sure thing HOF if McGwire is not? Neither proven guilty but both have looked very guilty!

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 1, 2007 10:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, Bonds

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 1, 2007 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How

How has Sosa looked guilty? He has denied using PED in front of Congress in which Big Mac refused to answer that question. Never tested positive, had not been involved with Balco or the Albany, Florida internet drug probe. So where is your evidence?

by BillyBobisdrunk on Sep 2, 2007 3:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He did not deny anything in front of

Congress except knowing English

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 2, 2007 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes he did

And stop using the did not know english bullshit. Watch the C-Span hearings again on youtube. Check out what he said instead of spewing bullshit.

by BillyBobisdrunk on Sep 3, 2007 1:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

So did Palmeiro.

Also, when they started testing, he immediately lost a ton of weight and lost all ability to hit. And he was once caught using a corked bat, so the idea that he might cheat is not out of the question.

Besides that, there isn't much evidence.

by badradiorules on Sep 2, 2007 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

leads the team in runs batted in.

by BillyBobisdrunk on Sep 3, 2007 1:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since Amphetamines are PEDs

Since Amphetamines are PEDs according to major league baseball, and are just as banned as HgH or anything else, should we go back and kick all of the amphetamine users out of the Hall?

I interpret a performance enhancer as anything that means you are capable of doing something that you wouldn't have been able to do without using it. That's exactly what PEDs do, as there are players who relied on them in the 60s...Willie Mays and Hank Aaron are good examples. Aaron not only admits to using PEDs in his autobiography, but says there were seasons where he relied on them to make it through the entire year.

That's a performance enhancer in my opinion if he needed it to get through the season and thus put up stats that wouldn't have been possible without it.

by rangeressary on Sep 2, 2007 5:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm talking about HGH not amphetamines....

it was also illegal to drink at a certain time in our history but you don't kick those players out....arguing ampheamines and HGH or other steriods are the same because they are illegal does not work for me

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 2, 2007 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok, I see

We only keep them out of the HOF for PEDs that you deem really bad, huh? Why do you draw the line at HGH or steroids?

by Brandon Wilson on Sep 2, 2007 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

More to come...going to get interesting

Per the above, Adam states there is more analysis to come on "is Sosa a HOFer" Great more chances for us to learn that Sosa IS NOT a Hofer and that we should just realize it and move on. You know all those VORP, WARP, stats tell it all.

Question? Did you feel this way before Sosa joined the Rangers this year or only now so after he came aboard and took away at-bats from Jason Botts. yes, yes Botts sample size is small and he should still get more chances but Sosa had added mroe to this team than Botts...you know those stats that matter ont he scoreboard, RBI's, runs, etc.

by simbaa on Sep 1, 2007 10:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry

But this really smells of the "He hits meaningless home runs" nonsense. I love the emphasis on the credentials but really cannot fathom the conclusions. Sosa was a dominate player, not good, he was game changing for 5 years and pretty good for 5 more years. He posted 3 years of 160 OPS+. Sosa has done things that nobody else has done.

by bushe on Sep 1, 2007 10:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sosa

Yeah, I'm probably as big a stathead as Adam, and I'd put Sosa in if I had a vote. Sosa was a dominant (sorry, but that misuse of "dominate" really bugs me, and it's not just you) player long enough and put up enough HR that I think he's got to be in.

I'm also not a big fan of the Keltner test, FWIW.

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on Sep 1, 2007 11:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keltner test

for its intended purpose, I don't see what's wrong with it? There is no end all be all HOF evaluation criteria, but I think the Keltner touches on important considerations, fwiw ...

"No team has any major strengths as all NFL players are roughly the same. If you cant run on third and one it isn't because of your players." - Sharky

by Chase Irwin on Sep 1, 2007 11:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keltner test

My issues with the Keltner test are primarily with questions 1-4.

It's very possible to be a HOF-caliber player and not be the best player in baseball, the best player on your team, or the best player at your position. Lou Gehrig, while the best player at his position, wasn't the best player in baseball or the best on his team- both those honors went to Babe Ruth. Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays were contemporaries, but only one of them can be considered the best CF of his generation. Yet they're both among the best players ever.

In Sosa's case, look at question 1, for example- Adam points out (and rightly so) that A-Rod, Griffey, and Bonds were generally considered the top players in baseball during Sosa's peak years. They're all also going to be upper-tier Hall of Famers. Just because Sosa isn't as good as three of the best players of this generation (if not of all time) doesn't mean he still can't be Hall of Fame caliber.

Same with question 3- Vladimir Guerrero is probably going to wind up in Cooperstown someday. Being the next best RF doesn't mean Sosa wasn't also an excellent player during those seasons.

The "impact on pennant races" question also has the problem that it can penalize a player simply because he had crappy teammates. Lots of Hall of Famers played long stretches of their careers on bad teams. Ernie Banks and Fergie Jenkins never played in the post-season. Gaylord Perry only did so once. Phil Niekro played in just two post-seasons, as did Ryne Sandberg and Willie McCovey. Hank Aaron and Warren Spahn, two of the best players ever, only made the post-season three times each in a combined 44 seasons.

Question 15 seems a bit iffy as well. Character is all well and good as a HOF criterion, but is what Sosa is alleged to have done any worse than Ty Cobb and Cap Anson's racism, Gaylord Perry's cheating, or Mike Schmidt's admitted use of amphetamines?

I agree that as a quick HOF standards test, it's probably OK, but I think there are a lot of potential holes in it as well.

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on Sep 2, 2007 12:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

dominant

very well, forgot how to spell all 3 sylable words as soon as I got MS Word :)

by bushe on Sep 1, 2007 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

Didn't mean to pick on you- I've just been seeing people using "dominate" instead of "dominant" a lot lately, and for some reason, it's really gotten on my nerves. I'm probably not drinking enough. :)

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on Sep 2, 2007 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes he was but......

did he do it the right way or the Raffy/Bonds way

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 1, 2007 11:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

irrelevant

If it cannot be proved inconclusively that he did steroids and that nearly unanimously other players didn't I don't consider it. Unless you are arguing that he hit homers while holding the barell of the bat, swinging the handle and ran the bases backwards on routine grounders. In which case maybe he shouldn't be in

by bushe on Sep 1, 2007 11:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand that .....

as I stated in my earlier post if it can't be proven that he used PED then he is in, if he is proven to have used them then he is out....it is very simple for me.

I just think the entire steroid hearing was a little suspicious when he all of a sudden could not speak english.....I don't know if this issue can be resolved until there is more info on the PED controversy (spelling?).

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 2, 2007 12:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that is an urban legend

by BillyBobisdrunk on Sep 2, 2007 3:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that he couldnt speak english infront of congress

lol no it's not my friend

by slash on Sep 2, 2007 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If if had to testify in front of congress

about something that important I'd want to speak only in my native language, too, no matter how fluent I was in my hosts' language.

Signature

by t ball on Sep 2, 2007 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well you dont have to be really fluent

to say NO......lol but i see what you're saying, but if he had nothing to worry about, there's no reason to pull that, he could've spoken through his lawyers or a translater

by slash on Sep 2, 2007 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he did

douche, watch the testimony on youtube.

by BillyBobisdrunk on Sep 3, 2007 1:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the famous cloud

This was I "live" in a tv show that a friend works for here in Dominicana, they were interviewing Rico Carty, one of the invitees that was in the Sosa´s 600 homer day in Texas. He was a MLB 299 AVE career ball player during 15 years and Batting title champion in 1970 with the Braves. He was asked about the steroid thing and Sosa.

He was a team mate of players like Ralph Garr, Hank Aaron, Dusty Baker, Orlando Cepeda, Joe Torre, Reggie Jackson, Frank Robinson, Eddie Mathews and many ther stars of his era.

He said that he felt sad when he see poeple taking merits off from Sammy Sosa.. because he knows first hand what many ball player did before all this crap....

By the way, he told the story of when he and Aaron had a fistfight on a plane... Because Aaron treated bad a rookie. It was real funny to be there.

by engelsol on Sep 1, 2007 11:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I mean that I was live in a TV show...

I mean that I was live in a TV show...last week.

by engelsol on Sep 1, 2007 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm at a loss for words...

I usually love your analysis of all things baseball, Adam, but to say that Ron Santo, Albert Belle, Dick Allen, Craig Biggio, etc. are more HOF worthy than Sosa just causes my jaw to drop. There is only thing that will keep Sosa out of the HOF: steroid allegations, which many other posters have mentioned above.

The things Sosa has done in the game make him as close to a lock as anybody that has played in the last 25 years, and he deserves to be a first ballot inductee, no further questions asked. The way in which you went about answering the Kelter test only further proves that you've arbitrarily chosen to treat Sosa as a player much, much worse than his overall body of work has proven him to be. Bobby Abreu, Shawn Green, Larry Walker as good or better than Sosa? Are your kidding me? All I can say is WOW...

"Hello, win column..."

by rangersfan34 on Sep 1, 2007 11:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Kelter = Keltner

oopsie...

"Hello, win column..."

by rangersfan34 on Sep 1, 2007 11:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

It's the first Saturday of college football season and you spend countless hours delving into how to make an argument of how Sammy Sosa shouldn't be in the HOF, taking out the PED situation.

And in the same argument you say that Biggio is a no doubter, when he doesn't really even stack up near as well as Sosa in the Keltner Test.

Unbelievable. It appears that your hatred knows no bounds.

Sosa: 600 HRs, 128 career OPS+, most comparable players: 1.Ken Griffey, 2.Mike Schmidt, 3. Harmon Killebrew, 4. Willie Stargell

I can't imagine needing anything else.

by badradiorules on Sep 1, 2007 11:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Believe it or not...

...this probably took me an hour, give or take...

by Adam J. Morris on Sep 1, 2007 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then I'm impressed

Still, come on. You could probably autopsy 50% of all HOFers numbers and find question marks of whether they should be there.

Bottom line is that he has the fifth most HRs all-time in a sport in which that is the headliner stat.

Saying he isn't a HOFer is like saying that the fifth all-time NFL rusher shouldn't be in Canton.

by badradiorules on Sep 2, 2007 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Put Mayberry Jr. back at First Base.

by Jukebox Joe on Sep 2, 2007 1:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Michael Young

If MY gets to 3000 hits, as he very well could barring injury or a big fall-off in production, is he HOF material?

by timraub on Sep 2, 2007 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

MY getting to 3000 is very unlikely

he would have to stick around at least as long as biggio did, and he only has any shot at all of doing that if he can stay at a middle infield spot, where people already want to move him from today.

i dont see it happening. although obviously i would love to.

by DSheppard on Sep 2, 2007 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly

What is your problem?

You already rail on the guy for being on the rangers and taking up the spot of Jason Botts who we now know to be a complete failure. Which of course does not mean Sosa should be back playing by any means. But now you go after his Hall of Fame status? What the fuck man, lay off.

by TexGoesYard on Sep 2, 2007 12:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Botts

He's still under 200 major-league at-bats for his career. Can we at least give the guy a full season before labeling him a complete failure?

"Then I met some friends for a beer, went to a BoDeans's concert, and son of a vondruke, if I didn't leave him at the concert hall."

by RCCook on Sep 2, 2007 12:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's to much to ask for....

patience is not a virtue of many people here when it comes to our players, especially Botts.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 2, 2007 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Botts discussion

spiraled out of control on this site a while ago. The small sample size dolts are paralyzing threads that have anything remotely to do with Botts. He's become a lightning rod and we should consider censoring anything stupid written about him until the ASB next year.

"No team has any major strengths as all NFL players are roughly the same. If you cant run on third and one it isn't because of your players." - Sharky

by Chase Irwin on Sep 2, 2007 12:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

He's a 27 y/o rookie DH. He needs to hit. If he is still looking up at a .600 OPS at the end of this season, he's a failed bit.

It's not like he's super young or this is his first swim through the big leagues. He needs to show SOMETHING.

I like the guy and am rooting for him, but damn. Unless, he improves this month, I'd hate to have him etched in stone in the lineup next year with all the other question marks in this lineup.

by badradiorules on Sep 2, 2007 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

botts

i'll remember you said that. but of course you were the same jackass who kept saying sosa would be good in spring training so i guess it matters not what i hold you to.

Forget Johnny Bench, we got Gerry "the Jet" Laird

by ab03 on Sep 2, 2007 12:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who

said Sosa would be good in spring training?

"No team has any major strengths as all NFL players are roughly the same. If you cant run on third and one it isn't because of your players." - Sharky

by Chase Irwin on Sep 2, 2007 12:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sosa

Went above and beyond his expectations this year.

by TexGoesYard on Sep 2, 2007 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you expected him to hit .220 with 10 HR?

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Sep 2, 2007 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds like

you have some low expectations from your starting DH, then. If you're happy with the DH posting a .766 OPS over 380 at bats, then you have no room to bitch if Botts posts an .800 OPS over a full season next year. As for now, it's 94 AB's YTD given to Botts, and 171 AB's total over three years.

I'd be more than happy if he posted an .800 OPS next year, but I'd like to think he could reach .850.

As of now, there are 83 players in MLB with an .800 OPS or better this year, who are qualified. Some names that aren't: Jermaine Dye, J.J. Hardy, Mike Cameron, Brian McCann, Carlos Delgado, GMJ, Andrew Jones, Pudge, Vernon Wells, J.D. Drew.

There are only 50 players in MLB who have an OPS better than .850.

"No team has any major strengths as all NFL players are roughly the same. If you cant run on third and one it isn't because of your players." - Sharky

by Chase Irwin on Sep 2, 2007 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

For your perusal

here is the OPS link:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?sort=OPS&split=0&league=mlb&season=2007& seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minpa=0&hand=a&pos=all&qual=tr ue&count=41

"No team has any major strengths as all NFL players are roughly the same. If you cant run on third and one it isn't because of your players." - Sharky

by Chase Irwin on Sep 2, 2007 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I agree with most of the people above.

The analysis posited here (the Keltner test specifically) requires a high degree of impartiality due to the subjective nature of many of the questions.

Frankly, you are so far entrenched in the "Sosa is horrible for the Rangers" group (some would say that you are leading that pack...), that you have to do a lot more to demonstrate that you can be at all objective about Sosa's career. Not that I don't think you're capable of it, just kind of smells funny...

Also, for what it is worth, it is the Hall of FAME, not "Hall of players greater than three standard deviations above replacement."

If Sammy Sosa is anything, he is famous. And not for one year or one day, but for a whole career.

He's a Hall of Famer, deal with it.

by JBImaknee on Sep 2, 2007 12:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

He was "famous" his whole career, especially those first nine seasons, when he was essentially a poor man's Juan Gonzalez.

Also, I never realized how similar his 1997 season (the one before 66 hr) is to this season. 251/300/480 compared to 249/307/459.

BTW - I still think he's a HOFer, but probably probably closer to a borderline 1st/2nd ballot person, which is still not that bad.

by ksf42001 on Sep 2, 2007 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, no...

The Hall of "Fame."

You have been sentenced to read this:
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2006/01/12-minutes-of-hell-with-colin-cowherd.html

then sit in the corner in a funny hat.

by benmor78 on Sep 2, 2007 1:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I sat and wore my hat (I chose a Cheesehead fwiw)

However, I am not remorseful...

In truth, the HOF is somewhere between those two extremes.

The HOF rewards 3 things:
1> Complete dominance (upper tier)
2> Career with milestones
3> Really "popular" players (with fans or teammates)

Not that that is how it should be, but that is how it is.

Real statistical analysis is useful for the first, though it really isn't needed. If you are inner circle, you are inner circle.

Milestones are simple and have been used traditionally to filter whole careers. This isn't fair (Blyleven gets screwed by being 13 wins short of 300, and Don Sutton gets in for the milestone) - but it is what it is. It is fair to argue that real statistics should be used here, but this Keltner test above is too subjective to do that.

And lots of guys are in only because they were popular or flashy. I personally think this is why Ozzie Smith is a first ballot guy and Omar Vizquel will be lucky to see it at all. Of course this isn't fair, but it is the way it is.

Nevertheless, "Fame" has many different meanings. And even though a complete baffoon (Cowheard) said that Canseco deserves to be in because of "Fame" alone, doesn't mean the global argument doesn't have any merits.

by JBImaknee on Sep 2, 2007 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What the hell?

I think everyone needs to calm the hell down. All Adam's trying to say is that Sosa might not be the automatic first ballot HOFer that most people assume upon first look, especially when lingering questions about PEDs. It's not like he's saying there's no way he should even be considered for the HOF. He just wanted people to look a little deeper before they pass judgment. Can't say I have a problem with that sentiment.

by ksf42001 on Sep 2, 2007 12:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

Adam's post isn't about whether Sosa will be a first ballot HOFer, it is about whether he deserves to be. Two very different things.

by JBImaknee on Sep 2, 2007 1:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You knew my drunk ass had to response to this shit

I think this is a great debate. Adam great question. Here is my take.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
Well in 1998 he did win the NL MVP. Juan Gonzalez won the AL MVP that year so compare the numbers between them and Sosa was the best player in the game.

Was he the best player on his team? I love Mark Grace! Great player but he was not the best player on the Cubs team. From 1993-2003 Sammy Sosa was the best player on his team. Look at his numbers and compare them to Mark Grace. More homers, rbi's and steals.
Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position? Yes, again 1998 MVP.
Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? 1998 Wildcard and lost to Braves and 2003 division title and lost to the Marlins.
Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime? He played regularly in 2004, was injured in 2005, did not play in 2006 and in 2007 does not play regularly but leads his team in runs batted in.
Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame? No Barry Bonds is the best player of his era.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame? Yes

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? Yes

Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? I don't think so but to be fair his era is considered the steroid era so his numbers might be inflated to some people. But still Hall of Fame numbers.
Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame? Well it is hard to say since he has not retired but yes he is. Sorry Larry Walker.
How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? Yes he did. One and Jeff Kent has his second award.
How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame? 7 time all-star, started five of those games and yes some players in those all star games were elected to the HOF. Cal Ripken, Kirby Puckett and etc.
If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? It should have won in 2003 but he did played for the Chicago Cubs. Ernie Banks couldn't do it either.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? Sosa was part of a handful of players who brought back baseball back to the fans after the 1994 strike

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? Yes he did. His charity work in the Dominican Republic was honor during Bill Clinton's State of the Union speech in 1999.

by BillyBobisdrunk on Sep 2, 2007 3:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Getting some attention on BBTF

Nice. Even if they all disagree with you.

I disagree with you too. I think Sammy Sosa is a HOFer. However, I also believe the MSM doesn't understand the degree of his HOFness. He's a HOFer like Hank Greenberg + some decline years + some younger (incline?) years -- not a HOFer like Bonds or Griffey.

by a bebop a rebop on Sep 2, 2007 4:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs