T.R. Sullivan mailbag
T.R. Sullivan has a new mailbag column up, and there was one question and answer that jumped out at me:
-- Paul C., Trenton, Texas
There are 24 shortstops in the Major Leagues who have played in at least 103 games. Young ranks 10th among them in both fielding percentage and range factor, which is putouts and assists per nine innings. He is not Omar Vizquel, but if the Cardinals can win with David Eckstein at short, then the Rangers can win with Young. They have far too many other needs to mess with that right now.
You notice, Sullivan sort of ducks the question...he doesn't come out and say that Young is a good, bad or indifferent shortstop. Instead, he trots out his fielding percentage and range factor as being middle of the pack, and leaves it at that.
However...the problem with range factor is that, like RBIs, it is heavily influenced by opportunity. Teams with pitching staffs that strike out a lot of batters are going to have fewer balls in play, and thus the fielders are going to have lower range factors than they would behind a staff that doesn't strike out a lot of batters.
The Rangers' pitching staff is 25th in the majors in strikeouts, with 920. The average major league staff has struck out 987 batters.
Groundball staffs are going to get more ground balls, and thus give infielders more opportunities to make plays than a flyball staff would. I think the Rangers are fairly heavily a groundball staff, although I can't find the numbers for the team as a whole.
So Young should have a relatively high range factor, even if he's not very good defensively.
That said, as I mentioned above, Sullivan doesn't come out and say that Young is a good defensive shortstop, and at the end, seems to acknowledge that Young's defense is a problem, but sort of punts the issue.
The Rangers have sort of backed themselves into a corner with Young...he doesn't want to move, and the Rangers are committed to him for the next 6 years at a pretty huge number. And his offense would be below average at any position that he'd be able to play other than shortstop.
But the Rangers also have been trying to build a groundball staff, because of the homer-friendly home park they play in. Putting a sub-par defensive shortstop behind a groundball staff ends up defeating the purpose.
I still tend to believe that Young will end up moving to third base, maybe after 2009 (when Hank Blalock becomes a free agent).
Sullivan also suggests that 5 years, $75 million for Torii Hunter wouldn't be unreasonable for the Rangers, since the Rangers gave Young an $85 million, 5 year deal. Still, to me, that seems like saying, "You bought a Honda Accord for $75,000, so this BMW 325i for $70,000 is a bargain in comparison!"
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65 comments
Comments
hmmm...
by RangerMoto on Sep 18, 2007 12:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It isn't a dis on either
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 18, 2007 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now that you mention it...
by slimshadty12 on Sep 18, 2007 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
My best advice: buy a vehicle that still has a year or so left on warranty (probably a 2005 or newer), let it speak to you, and if you feel comfortable, forget the extended warranty. If you feel the need, get the warranty, it'll probably be worth it.
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 18, 2007 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
by slimshadty12 on Sep 18, 2007 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
not at all
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 19, 2007 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oooh, ooh, I know!
By 2009, Saltalamacchia is a top catcher and Kinsler a top 2B, and you hope that Duran, Davis, and Teagarden are all contributing. By 2010 Ramirez (DH?) and Andrus. And hopefully, by 2009 you've added at least 2 solid outfielders. Put it all together and Young can be carried at 3B if his offense declines like we expect.
And of course a couple of those guys could be traded for other pieces. The team has some options -- providing most of these guys continue to develop.
by t ball on Sep 18, 2007 12:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Young
by jshcmp on Sep 18, 2007 12:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
GB%
I have to say I agree that MY's SS defense isn't so bad that it can't be lived with. Could it be better? yes. But he isn't the butcher that people make him out to be (anymore at least).
by bushe on Sep 18, 2007 12:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Young
This trend would keep the contract a decent value.
I like what t ball said in his comment too. If Young is going to have to be moved, it's good to see a lot of middle infield depth almost ready to contribute during days when Young is DHing, or sitting.
by hightowersmith on Sep 18, 2007 12:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Game
by jshcmp on Sep 18, 2007 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was real disappointed to read all of this.
by gp on Sep 18, 2007 1:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 18, 2007 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And, furthermore
by t ball on Sep 18, 2007 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you are correct in that
by gp on Sep 18, 2007 8:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's just crazy talk, man...
by rangersfan34 on Sep 18, 2007 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kinsler Splits
.311/.386/.533
Kinsler on road --
.225/.323/.379
I forgot that splits only matter conveniently when they fit your argument....
by jctrampe on Sep 18, 2007 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Additional
Home --
.315/.367/.443
Away --
.310/.362/.394
Also, Kinsler last year:
Home --
.316/.376/.552
Away --
.256/.318/.355
by jctrampe on Sep 18, 2007 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mike Young away
And Alfonso Soriano = Average major league left fielder
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 18, 2007 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Adam
by Chris Martin on Sep 18, 2007 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 18, 2007 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to take anything away from Kinsler ...
by Athos on Sep 18, 2007 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I count on this roster 2 bonafide
by gp on Sep 18, 2007 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kinsler has regressed?
He's a legit major league regular, and he's been better than Young this season.
by Adam J. Morris on Sep 18, 2007 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, he has definitely been
by gp on Sep 19, 2007 12:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers
SS Young 2007: 103 OPS+
Considering positional weight, Kinsler has been better.
by Chase Irwin on Sep 19, 2007 12:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's great.
by gp on Sep 19, 2007 12:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, are you implying that
by gp on Sep 19, 2007 1:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It'd be nice
by DJCahill on Sep 19, 2007 5:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Over the full season, Kinsler has a slight edge.
Since May 1st.
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OPS
Young 496 62 167 29 1 6 70 44 82 9 .337 .830
Kinsler 358 68 92 17 2 10 36 44 64 16 .257 .749
So when you take out the statistical anomaly of April, Young has been a significantly better hitter over the course of the rest of the season. Again, I'm pleased with Kinsler overall and not trying to knock on him, but the notion that he's been a better hitter than Young is just flat wrong. He was much, much, much better in April. The rest of the year, he's been significantly worse.
by Athos on Sep 19, 2007 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
We're not talking about whose doing better on a month by month basis. Look at the season as a whole. If you go on a tear for a month, that shouldn't be counted against you. Just like you don't count MY's unlucky April against him. It all evens out in the end.
A month is 1/6 of the season, which is a big enough sample to not dismiss. If Kinsler had that production in a different month, say August, would you still discount it?
I think there's this illusion that since it happened in April, the AL pitchers "figured him out" and adjusted to him. Hopefully, Kinsler will go off in June or something next year to disprove this myth.
I suppose that I could take away Mike Young's August (.870 OPS) and distort his stats into looking pretty mediocre as well. Am I off base?
If we have to go month by month, perhaps let's look at their months where OPS > .800? They're pretty even there, each with 3 months over .800 (including September).
by Chase Irwin on Sep 19, 2007 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're making the errant conclusion ...
I understand that you can't refute my numbers. Your implication that I'm cherry-picking months to make Young look better is simply off base. You have to go back to August of '04 to find another month where Young hit as poorly as he did this April, which is a pretty good indication that his April performance was simply an anomaly. Other than April, neither player has had a month that is so out of whack with the other months that it can be considered an anomaly.
Young is a better hitter than Kinsler at this point in their careers. Will that always be the case? Who knows? I certainly hope Kinsler does better next year than he has this year (and I hope Young doesn't have a dreadful month like April).
Now, can you honestly say that since May 1st that Kinsler has been the better hitter? If you can, I'd love to see your reasoning.
by Athos on Sep 19, 2007 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Refutation
"Now, can you honestly say that since May 1st that Kinsler has been the better hitter? If you can, I'd love to see your reasoning."
Not my point. As a whole, this season, Kinsler has been better. You could argue that Young was "better" because he didn't get hurt, but that's a separate argument.
Kinsler's May: .495 OPS, worst month of his career. That would qualify as "SO skewed" in your book. Therefore, let's discount his worst month, while we're discounting MY's worst month, then reevaluate?
I'll let you, or someone else, crunch the numbers because I'm not aware of a site that allows you to recalculate after subtracting a month. But I'd be interested to see the new totals.
You've yet to address or refute these numbers:
Kinsler 2007 - 106 OPS+
Young 2007 - 104 OPS+
Factor in that 2B is a slightly weaker offensive position than SS, Kinsler has been better relatively, albeit by a small, almost negligible margin. If you want to argue that they've basically been the same, I think that's a lot easier argument to make than to say that Young has been definitively better ...
by Chase Irwin on Sep 19, 2007 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeesh.
For Christ's sake, there aren't any macho points involved here. The sky really is blue. You won't be showing yourself an inferior debater by acknowledging the obvious.
by Athos on Sep 19, 2007 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lighten up
"and taking a single number which has been proven to be skewed as your only evidence to the contrary is a weak argument."
How is OPS+ skewed? I realize that OPS is somewhat skewed, but OPS+ is adjusted for ballpark and league average, so it's a far better metric than the "single number" that you are using throughout your weak argument.
You're allowed to take Young's worst month away, but I'm not allowed to take Kinsler's worst month away? Why don't you calculate what Kinsler's 5 months would look like after you subtract the sub .500 OPS month (which is your standard), especially before you claim that Young has been better for longer -- something I'm willing to accept if it is, in fact, true.
What is obvious about this? There is a debate going on in much of this thread, but because others don't blindly accept your viewpoint, then THEY are not recognizing the obvious? If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.
Test for consistency next time, especially before launching unprovoked character assaults. What a joke.
by Chase Irwin on Sep 19, 2007 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You accused me of cherry picking in order ...
Your problem, my mentally challenged little man, is that you are scared that if you concede a point that you're obviously wrong on, that you'll look like an idiot. The problem is, by continuing to deny the undeniable, you do yourself a much greater disservice in the "mental strength" department. Kinsler's numbers are skewed higher because of his amazing April, which was an anomaly since he hasn't hit near that well since. Just like Mike Young's track record proves that April was a statistical anomaly for him. The point of removing the April numbers wasn't to take away Young's worst month, but to show that over the majority of the season, Young has been a much better hitter than Kinsler. The problem with your OPS+ argument is that it still takes into account the ridiculously skewed numbers from April for both players.
The question is still simple. Who has been the better hitter over the majority of the season? Kinsler was better in April. Young has been better since. Honestly, I don't know how I can dumb it down any further for you. Maybe I can find a mildly retarded 5th grader who could explain it more on a level you're capable of understanding.
Here endeth the lesson.
by Athos on Sep 19, 2007 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
right and wrong
either way, you both bring up valid points, but the easiest conclusion is that Mike Young is a much better major leaguer right now due to three reasons:
- he's done it consistently
- he's done it longer
- he's remained healthy
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 19, 2007 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually like some of your posts
If you take both statistically anomalous months away from either player (MY's April, Kinsler's May), I would wager that Kinsler has been the better hitter this year. Kinsler has a better OPS+ on the year, and had a MUCH worse "anomalous" month than MY. Kinsler's awful May was almost a full 100 points lower in OPS than Young's April. Will you conceptualize that? I don't think Kinsler will ever have another sub .500 OPS month for the rest of his career. Is that not skewed then? ...
I'm done with the insults, thanks for your time though!
by Chase Irwin on Sep 19, 2007 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You could say with equal validity
I don't know that you can really do that though, because slumps are as big a part of baseball as hot streaks.
by DJCahill on Sep 20, 2007 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Either way you look at it, whether you discount their anomalous months or not, Kinsler has been better this year.
by Chase Irwin on Sep 20, 2007 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam, do you just make this stuff up?
by gp on Sep 19, 2007 12:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
League OPS
Ditto with his slugging. The league overall had a slg. % of .445 last year, but only .431 this year. Thus, even though Kinsler's number has dropped from .454 to .449 so far, he is .018 better than league average this year, whereas he was only .009 better in '06.
That's why his OPS+ is better this year. Everything is relative, and he is a better player compared to other players in the league than last year.
by t ball on Sep 19, 2007 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
by JB on Sep 18, 2007 1:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Young
You say: " And his offense would be below average at any position that he'd be able to play other than shortstop."
I think too much emphasis is placed on stuff like that. If Hank Blalock sucks, then Mike Young should play third. He doesn't have the power but he's productive, and he's better than anyone else they have to put at third. It's all relative to who's on your roster. But with an arm like his, I can definitely live without power from the 3B position.
And as said above, he's no butcher. Ideally you'd want better, and if the team can somehow address it while addressing more pressing concerns, that would be great.
You say: "Putting a sub-par defensive shortstop behind a groundball staff ends up defeating the purpose."
I agree with that, but I don't think he's all that sub-par quite yet. This isn't as bad as when the Dodgers got Kevin Brown and then decided they'd make Eric Freaking Young their everyday second baseman.
Anyway, I'd very much like for the Rangers to continue with the grouddball staff and get themselves stronger up the middle. I don't think that says anything bad about Michael Young. Third base is an underrated defensive position, I think, and he's ideally suited for it.
Blalock needs to comeback from his whiplash and hit like crazy. Then he needs to play in the Winter somewhere and hit like crazy. Then he needs to come to Spring Training and hit like crazy.
Then the Rangers should trade him. I'm still not a believer, but if he can do the above he'll have value.
by Dustin on Sep 18, 2007 1:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Special Project
by TexasLouie on Sep 18, 2007 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Butcher
But I'd like for the Rangers to be REALLY strong up the middle. That would require moving Young to another postition, and the ideal place for him would be third base. Now if they stick with Blalock and he hits the way he's capable of, I can learn to live with the infield the way it is now. But I'm not a believer in Blalock. As soon as he starts hitting balls out, he'll probably turn into a hacker.
by Dustin on Sep 18, 2007 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does Young have the arm for third base?
by Ajax on Sep 18, 2007 2:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes
by Dustin on Sep 18, 2007 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Young Hating
and I don't think his defense is suffocating his pitching staff or detrimental to the rest of the infield defense...maybe I'm wrong?
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 18, 2007 3:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you 110%...
by rangersfan34 on Sep 18, 2007 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to worry
You'll hear a symphony of denial, but down deep, nobody likes to be that wrong. Adam, however, was among the first to reverse field and recognize that he could really hit, with the reservation being he didn't walk enough.
Well, Mikey has been able to improve. One thing at a time. Power, for a couple of years. Range, for the last two. OBP, not amazing but better than it was. Taking walks as a part of that, comes and goes but a little better. Obviously he can't put together the total package, at least from now on out during his remaining contract. He's four to six years past the 'fix it by tweaking it and working harder' point.
Nevertheless, if you look at his total length of service and total salary dollars (say a ten year sample), he receives but he also has given. And iMHO will continue to hit well, and maybe get on base better still. Yeah, I see him moving to third at some point. But no crystal ball. What you see is what you will get. Silly to project now, what may occur in three years.
by Ed Coffin on Sep 18, 2007 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
After all these years
He is hitting about exactly the same as he has every year but 2005 when he careered, and his defense still has limited range, and with him at SS, we basicly need better 3B, 2B, and RF and CF. His OBP-AVG has been the same 40-50 points it has always been. The facts simply do not bear out any of your observations, Ed.
The real reason you hear more people complaining about Young this year, is he is getting judged based on player making comparable salaries. Its amazing what happens when you have expectations based on being a $3 million players and you suddenly have the expectations of being a $16 million player.
by DJCahill on Sep 19, 2007 5:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Granted
Disclaimer: yes the contract is too much money over too long a period of time. It is no reason to rip the player (if anything, ownership approving the deal).
Proclaimer: if you calculate long enough and use enough selective criteria, you can prove "anything".
by Ed Coffin on Sep 19, 2007 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where's Cahill?
by Athos on Sep 18, 2007 4:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I've come around
Hopefully we will make an equally great signing with Torii Hunter.
by DJCahill on Sep 19, 2007 5:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, according to Dan
Everyone else is of the "bad glove, no range" variety.
Dan once saw Mike race a statue. I'll leave it up to the board to guess the winner...
by Brian Thomas on Sep 19, 2007 10:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aww what the hell
by Sharky on Sep 18, 2007 6:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
MY
He will never be a great defensive shortstop but as long as the hits keep coming I can live with that. I understand the frustration with that part of his game but lets not be to critical.
Oh by the way, I think someone made 3 errors in the game today...nice timing for this topic!
by slc ranger on Sep 18, 2007 10:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
with all that said...
my guess, with no empirical data to back this up at all (not sure there really is any), is 3 - and at most 5. And if you find a better defender at SS, do we then sacrifice his hitting? Has his hitting contributed solely to any wins this year? Probably...I just don't see the point of trying to find a better SS when he's not the main problem. Why not focus our energy on pitching (talent and improvement with what we already have: throwing first-pitch strikes and keeping the ball low in the zone), situational hitting (getting on base, moving to scoring position and bringing a runner home no matter how you are asked to) and coaching before we start trying to fix what really isn't broken in the first place?
by Walter Sobchak on Sep 19, 2007 10:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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