The Swisher trade
I leave for a couple of hours to do a deposition, come back, and discover another big A.L. West trade has gone down...
Nick Swisher is now a White Sock, being dealt to Chicago by the A's for Gio Gonzalez, Fautino de los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney.
According to Cot's, Swisher is under contract for $3.5 million in 2008, $5.3 million in 2009, $6.75 million in 2010, and $9 million for 2011, with a $10.25 million club option for 2012. 2011 would have been his first free agent year.
I'm sure folks here know about Swisher...he is what he is, a solidly very good switch-hitting corner outfielder who is under control (if the option is exercised) through his age 31 season. He's not a star, but given his age, production, contract status and salary, he's a very valuable commodity.
And the package the ChiSox gave up reflects that...Kevin Goldstein had de los Santos and Gonzalez #1 and #2 on his ChiSox list, with Sweeney #8, and the A's also got the #4 ChiSox prospect, Chris Carter, in the Dan Haren deal.
John Sickels has Gonzalez and de los Santos #1 and #2 on the ChiSox list, and #2 and #3 on the A's list, with Sweeney coming in at #5 (#12 on the Oakland list).
Sitting here looking at this, I'm starting to think the A's got just about as much for Swisher as they did for Haren. The two Gonzalez are each great prospects, and I seem like Chris Carter more than most, but I'm baffled by the love shown Brett Anderson, a 19 year old finesse lefty pitcher who apparently is built almost as badly as me, and the rest of the Arizona prospects are just guys.
With the 2 Gonzalezes, de los Santos, and Carter, the A's seem to have gotten four guys who have star potential, and the Oakland system had been really weak in those sorts of big-upside types. They are doing a good job of re-stocking.
Of course, this also means that the Rangers chances of finishing out of the cellar in the A.L. West just increased significantly.
As for Chicago, I don't understand what they are doing...they won 72 games last season (which matched their Pythagorean projection), finished last in the A.L. in runs, finished 12th in the A.L. in ERA, and have been making a bunch of moves this offseason suggesting that they believe that they are a team on the cusp that needs a couple of pieces to push them over the top.
Quentin and Swisher are, at least, guys with long-term value, and I think the Quentin trade is defensible...but the Swisher deal seems shaky, to me...
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66 comments
Comments
Kenny Williams
Looking back, the move that doesn't seem to fit into the context of what it appears KW is doing over there is the Garland - O. Cabrera trade.
by tricer on Jan 3, 2008 4:39 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
good move
by BillyBobisdrunk on Jan 3, 2008 5:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
You cannot defend this trade
Williams does not have a CF, Swisher? no. Owens? Not every day. Quinton? no.
Unless their spinning Konerko, which really would make them more left handed heavy, this deal is a steal for Oakland.
by Nichols22 on Jan 3, 2008 5:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Swisher
by brettgardner on Jan 3, 2008 5:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Adam
by brettgardner on Jan 3, 2008 5:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Not enough...
Swisher helps, but sticking him in CF is going to offset some of the offensive gain with a defensive hit. Ramirez is an unknown, and Quentin has question marks.
Their rotation, after Buehrle, has some issues...Vazquez was very good last year, but it was his first really good year in the last 4 or 5, and then you have Contreras, Danks and Floyd, which is probably shakier than what the Rangers are running out in the 3-4-5 slots.
It seems like they've made a bunch of moves to make them an 85 win team, in a division where you probably need 95 to win the division.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 3, 2008 7:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Meh
This could be a good move for other teams but not the White Sox. Swisher makes them better next year but in the years following, the White Sox don't have any prospects to replenish the major league team.
by WyoRanger on Jan 3, 2008 5:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
win-now
by tricer on Jan 3, 2008 5:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Don't disagree
by WyoRanger on Jan 3, 2008 6:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
As mentioned above, Swisher is a guy who's very proven and still under control for quite some time, which is immensely better than a guy who's still just a prospect.
I realize that Chicago was pretty awful last year, but I'm not sure that 1. Gonzalez was going to be so dominant that he'd pull them out of it anyway, and 2. That they could afford to wait and see. I wouldn't call Cleveland an old team. Detroit maybe, but this team needed to step up and compete right now, and I think they've pulled off a series of moves here which will help them do that.
by brettgardner on Jan 3, 2008 6:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Would you have dealt...
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 3, 2008 7:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good lord no.
Although if that were Kiker instead of Hurley I might have to think about it. I'd probably still pass though.
by brettgardner on Jan 3, 2008 7:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously?
Especially if the age and composition of our roster pretty much forced us to be in win-now mode.
by thedirkatron on Jan 3, 2008 8:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, you get it
Williams has Konerko, Dye, Thome, Buehrle and Vazquez. All those are veteran guys that are good to very good, but will be declining long before the A-ball pitcher contributes anything. So KW basically has 3 choices: do nothing, which likely results in not having a chance to win now or later. Or he can try and start selling off those veteran pieces (the most valuable of which would be Buerhle and Konerko, both of whom he just extended)to rebuild a pretty weak farm system. Or he could trade off what chips he has and try to add enough to his core that he might give his team a chance to contend over the next couple of years. He choose the last option, but did so in a manner that gives him quite a bit of flexibility in assembling his roster over the next several years.
And I really think that 2 years from now, Williams would be able to flip Quinton and Swisher for just about the same type of prospects that he traded to acquire them.
by tricer on Jan 3, 2008 8:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just fwiw
But you would give that package a notch or two advantage with each player.
by Brett Perryman on Jan 4, 2008 8:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I might
by t ball on Jan 4, 2008 10:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson
Anderson excelled in the Midwest League, where his impressive 2.88 RA per 9 innings matches nicely with his Base Runs estimate of 2.90 runs allowed per 9 innings. Anderson complemented his above-average strikeout rates with outstanding control and groundball tendencies. Here are 19-year-olds with comparable strikeout and a walk rates at the Class A level during the past three years:
Name Year League IP K% BB%
Brett Anderson 2007 MIDW 81 26% 3%
Nick Adenhart 2006 MIDW 106 23% 6%
Michael Bowden 2006 MIDW 107 27% 7%
Philip Hughes 2005 SAL 68 27% 6%
Tyler Clippard 2004 MIDW 149 23% 5%
There are some pretty impressive comps in that list, and on top of that, he is the only lefty on the list. Having watched him throw, I would have to label him as more of a power lefty than a finesse kind of guy. Sad to say, but I really believe he will probably be dominating us as a starter one day. If you disagree, I would be curious as to why you feel that way.
by B_Black on Jan 3, 2008 5:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Anderson
by RCCook on Jan 3, 2008 6:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
i agree. he should be real good, IIRC AZ gave him above slot money to buy him out of his committment to OSU...he seems like a billy beane kinda guy to me...
by knockoutking24 on Jan 3, 2008 6:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
great command
by Steven on Jan 3, 2008 6:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson
Anderson instantly becomes the best pitching prospect in the system. He's arguably the most polished teenage pitcher in the minors, and the only one I can think of who already has a plus breaking ball, plus changeup, and plus command. He's also a big left-hander with average velocity and as I recently commented elsewhere, he might not have the star power of some other young arms, but if you could bet on one teenage pitcher reaching the majors and being a regular contributor, Anderson would be your best bet.
BA says he profiles as an "innings eater," with his fastball sitting at 90 mph.
Now, those guys have value...but it seems like high school pitchers whose big assets are plus command and a plus breaking ball don't have a ton of growth potential. Those are the types who will often succeed in the lower minors, but struggle disproportionately against better competition.
I don't know. I'd be interested in hearing z's take on Anderson. I'm not saying he's not a nice prospect...it is more that, a 19 year old command guy who projects as a #3/#4 type doesn't seem like an elite prospect, to me. He seems like a lefty Omar Poveda.
by Adam J. Morris on Jan 3, 2008 7:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
WHIPs
Anderson A-: 1.06, A+: 1.56
Nice comparison. Anderson gives up more hits and less walks. Although Povedas strikout ratios went up with his promotion to Bakersfield while Andersons remained the same. Only about 5 months seperate the two.
by Steven on Jan 3, 2008 7:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How many times has...
Didn't the Sox deal him to Philly in the Thome trade and then get him back in the Rowand deal?
Talk about being a pawn....
by T Coleman on Jan 3, 2008 6:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
by brettgardner on Jan 3, 2008 6:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the correction
by T Coleman on Jan 3, 2008 6:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The more I look at the trade...
I am starting to think that most Sox fans have been overreacting by valuing Gio & DLS above and beyond what they are just because they were a respective 1 & 2 in a pathetic system.
(Wild conspiracy alert) Maybe Kenny Williams had this plan all along to reacquire Gio and put him back in Birmingham. Thus restoring his trade value which he lost when he went to Philly, and then reselling him at peak value for an above average affordable player.
It was a shame about Ryan Sweeney too, because the organization always sold him as this monster of a prospect who's power just hadn't developed yet. Unfortunately, he was doomed before he ever swung and missed on a pitch at the Cell. Maybe Billy Beane sees himself in him. I really hope he turns out in Oakland.
---
I'd be really interested to see if they expect Swisher to be their full time center fielder and possible leadoff hitter.
by krushcuts on Jan 3, 2008 6:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
thoughts
kenny williams - does he know something we dont?
billy beane - he knows how to rebuild. plain and simple. if harden is healthy in ST id imagine he moves him, but then again i wouldnt be suprised if he keeps him
by knockoutking24 on Jan 3, 2008 6:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ozzie
by BillyBobisdrunk on Jan 3, 2008 11:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ozzie....
by TheBZA on Jan 4, 2008 8:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ozzie still
by DJCahill on Jan 4, 2008 8:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ozzie
there are a LOT of managers and coaches i would take over ozzie.
by knockoutking24 on Jan 4, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ozzie has rings
I doubt Ozzie's style works year in and year out, but when a team overperforms like they did, the manager probably gets some credit.
by DJCahill on Jan 4, 2008 11:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
quit hating
by BillyBobisdrunk on Jan 4, 2008 9:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
also for prospects (unless mentioned is off sickle
gio gonzalez - 2 (B+)
fautino de los santos - 3 (B+)
brett anderson - 3 (B+) (was BA's AZ #3 prospect)
chris carter - 4 (B+) (was BA's AZ #8 prospect)
aaron cunningham - 8 (B-) (was BA's AZ #7 prospect)
ryan sweeney - 12 (C+)
greg smith - 14 (C+)
trade gives the A's 6 B+, 2 B, 5 B- (13 in B range)
kevin goldstein:
whitesox:
de los santos = #1/5*
gio gonzalez = #2/4*
chris carter = #4/3*
ryan sweeney = #8/2*
oakland:
carlos gonzalez = #2/5*
brett anderson = #3/4*
chris carter = #5/3*
aaron cunningham = #7/3*
greg smith = #13
vs. rangers
1 - teagarden
2- hurley
3- andrus
4- davis
8 - kiker (actually he moved JMJ from a B to a B- dropping him from 7 to probably 12 - so technically now #8 is maxram)
12 - neftali feliz
14 - brandon boggs
interesting thoughts:
carlos gonzalez - kinda sucked it up last year, but has tools coming out of everywhere lol
de los santos - came out of NOWHERE this year
anderson - would love to have him - look at the comparables above in this thread
gio gonzalez - cant decide what i think about him - did lead the minors in k's this last yr
ryan sweeney - was #1 in whitesox system last yr IIRC
chris carter - not too high on him. like the other AZ chris carter (the one who got traded to BOS and played for stanford) more
beane def. didnt go into this rebuilding mode half-assed, did he? lol
by knockoutking24 on Jan 3, 2008 6:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think
by abc123 on Jan 3, 2008 7:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I would definitely...
And I would have done it yesterday.
by txtwstr7 on Jan 3, 2008 8:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Well Boggs
by brettgardner on Jan 3, 2008 8:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Kinsler
Young (as long as he's a SS)
Saltalamacchia
Hamilton
Swisher
That type of stability and sustained production from the up-the-middle positions is just too enticing to pass up, especially considering the positional flexibility of Swisher...
In all honesty, I think trading for Swisher does as much for the 2009-2011 Texas Rangers as holding onto Harrison/Hurley and hoping they pan out. Give me the stud positional player locked in for several years over rolling the dice with two very good (not great) pitching prospects and an OF prospect who doesn't project to be anything more than potentially useful...
by txtwstr7 on Jan 3, 2008 8:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Ok
by brettgardner on Jan 3, 2008 8:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that I don't think it'd be a fair trade
by TheBZA on Jan 3, 2008 9:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not now
by tricer on Jan 3, 2008 11:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope all you LSBers...
I'm with Adam on this deal. Swisher is a good player and will be under control for some time but this doesn't make much sense for the ChiSox. They are still a 3rd place team and gave up 3 very good young players. I like this deal for the A's and feel like Beane is at it again. All we can do as Ranger fans is hope that he misses in a couple of these trades and the A's will be in trouble.
by slc ranger on Jan 3, 2008 10:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The ChiSox
And as far as the guys they gave up, only Gio had a reasonable shot at helping this team win in the near future, which is where their window is (if you believe that window exists at all). Sweeney is a big pile of mediocrity, and the other guy is basically Neftali Feliz part 2... a big dreams guy who's not gonna be ready for a long time.
by thedirkatron on Jan 3, 2008 11:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
by slc ranger on Jan 3, 2008 11:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
To suggest Sweeney will be better than Swisher is borderline insane.
Sweeney is an average guy who does a lot of things okay, but nothing great. Think Charles Thomas on this one.
by thedirkatron on Jan 3, 2008 11:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sweeney > Swisher...
by slc ranger on Jan 3, 2008 11:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
Some people really do think of Beane as some sort of super-genius who can do no wrong, so I was sort of scared there for a minute.
by thedirkatron on Jan 3, 2008 11:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
wait
BUT, if i can pick any GM in the league to rebuild my mediocre team...this is the guy. IF you can stand 1 or 2 years of being horrible (which is usually what is needed to truly "rebuild")
by knockoutking24 on Jan 4, 2008 3:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If your friends jumped off a cliff...
This is pretty cool, I've watched it like 4 times. The first two were just to make sure that it was real. I'm pretty sure it is.
http://www.biertijd.com/mediaplayer/?itemid=4262
by tricer on Jan 3, 2008 10:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Danks made Gio expendable?
by rooster on Jan 3, 2008 11:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
well
by selppuc on Jan 3, 2008 11:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
However...
by ghostofErikThompson on Jan 4, 2008 1:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ozzie alone
by knockoutking24 on Jan 4, 2008 3:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Can't forget
by miles on Jan 4, 2008 5:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The difference betwen
JD > Beane
by Longhorn on Jan 4, 2008 8:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
disagree
Daniels did very, very well with fewer top notch chips to trade, though. The Lofton and Gagne returns are almost as impressive as the Teixiera return to me, since you couldn't expect nearly as much for them.
by t ball on Jan 4, 2008 10:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Haren trade
by Brian Thomas on Jan 4, 2008 10:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Concur...
by slc ranger on Jan 4, 2008 3:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Haren trade
by t ball on Jan 4, 2008 8:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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