PECOTA projected 2008 standings

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 16, 2008 8:57 AM CST in News Comment 23 comments

BP has the PECOTA projected standings up...

PECOTA has the Rangers finishing 74-88, 3rd in the A.L. West. Surprisingly, the 4th place team isn't Oakland -- the A's project to 78 wins -- but the Mariners.

Baltimore and the Royals are also projected to finish behind Texas, with the Twins (and, interestingly, the Astros) also projected at 74 wins.

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If Harden stays healthy

the A's might be surprisingly good. Then again, Beane might take advantage of that and trade him.

A working class hero is something to be.

by t ball on Feb 16, 2008 9:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think trading him...

is much more likely.

If Oakland goes out and wins this year with that team I'm likely to take a little jog into oncoming traffic.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Feb 16, 2008 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA has expects the Ranger's pitching to be

worse than last year. Maybe PECOTA needs a kickboxing factor built into it.

If I owned a lightsaber, the blade color would be black light, so that I could use it to fight evil and to liven-up parties.

by rooster on Feb 16, 2008 9:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

good one

The three true outcomes - Does it make me money, does it get me fed, or does it get me laid?

by JTodd on Feb 16, 2008 2:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA 2007

So how did their predictions fare last year? I would guess they got 3 or maybe 4 of the division winners correct.

Being a football fan is like having a fling once a week... baseball is a relationship.

by Wemedge on Feb 16, 2008 10:10 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

METS

If they're pitching staff reduces their runs allowed by 100 or more, as PECOTA expects, they would be a beastly team and that would be a really good offseason by their GM.

If I owned a lightsaber, the blade color would be black light, so that I could use it to fight evil and to liven-up parties.

by rooster on Feb 16, 2008 11:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

on anybody except hamilton. just eyeballing it, looks like everyone else is supposed to have a down year except hamilton, laird (barely), jail bait, cruz, and botts. The latter two, not as much as you'd hope.

by ab03 on Feb 16, 2008 11:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

ah

also Bradley is expected to have a pretty good year as well - 830 OPS, almost 500 PA

by ab03 on Feb 16, 2008 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Houston

AJM, I'm curious as to what you think is particularly interesting about Houston projecting to 74 wins?

Seems rather reasonable and that win total appears to be what most reasonable people think of the quality of their team.

I'm truly curious.

by gr7070 on Feb 16, 2008 1:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I think it is reasonable, too...

But Houston is treated as a better team than the Rangers, and one that is a playoff contender, in some quarters.

And the organization seems to be acting like it is a contender, given their moves this offseason...

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 16, 2008 1:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Those who think Houston...

is a contender are sadly mistaken. Thay have no pitching other than Oswalt, and the Cubs and Brewers are both drastically better teams imo.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Feb 16, 2008 7:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Houston...

Has put together a great offense this year, and that's what's getting them attention as a playoff condender.

But their pitching just flat out sucks: it's Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, and then three guys that wouldn't even be #5 starters on this team: Woody Williams, Brandon Backe, and some guy named Chris Sampson. And the bullpen is pretty bad too: they have Jose Valverde, but Doug Brocail and Oscar Villareal are the setup men.

I'm not sure if I would predict them to be as bad as 74 wins - I think 78-80 wins is more realistic - again, they've got a great offense. But I don't see them having much of a shot at beating the Cubs, Brewers, or even the Reds, who all have offenses that can keep up with Houston, and much better rotations.

"The only way I'd like to see Mench back is as a hotdog vendor" - jd

by lonestarJon on Feb 16, 2008 6:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yah

I keep waiting to hear about them poucning on some of the leftover starts still out there.

There are some mildly interesting guys left out there:

Shawn Chacon (30)
Bartolo Colon (35)
Josh Fogg (31)
Freddy Garcia (32)
Byung-Hyun Kim (29)
Kyle Lohse (29)
Rodrigo Lopez (32)
Eric Milton (32)
Tomo Ohka (32)
Russ Ortiz (34)
Odalis Perez (31)
John Thomson (34)
Jeff Weaver (31)
David Wells (45)

I'm not intimately familiar with the injury situations of Fat Boy and Freddy Garcia, but they have to be pretty freaking injured to still not have a home this late in the game.

Still, guys like Fogg and Lohse and some of those other guys might be an upgrade over what the Astros are thinking of running out there in the four slots after Oswalt.

Oh, and nobody has signed my favorite prospective BORP, Corey Patterson. He must be overvaluing himself. You'd think someone would take a one year low-cost shot at him if he was amenable to doing it.

My secret sources in Cincinnati tell me that Joaquin Arias is twice the man Ruddy Yan will ever be.

by thedirkatron on Feb 17, 2008 12:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Chacon is actually being pursued by the 'Stro's

Though these days, he's a late releiver/set-up man, not a starter. And Odalis Perez got picked up by the Phillies on a minor league deal. So those two shouldn't really be on the list. But yeah, I agree - I'm surprised the Astros aren't still looking too.

Josh Fogg is terribly overrated, but I'm still stunned that Kyle Lohse hasn't gotten a job - guess nobody wanted to give him a multi-year deal - it makes me wish we had waited it out, and signed him instead of Jennings. They're both similar pitchers, who have pitched in hitters parks throughout their careers - and Lohse's less of a health risk. But somebody should pick him up before ST starts, you would think. I was suprised that the Phillies didn't resign him, actually.

As for Bart Colon and Freddy Garcia - from what I've heard, Garcia is gonna be out half the year, so nobody wants to pay for a pitcher they don't have - and reports on Colon indicate he's barely hitting 90 with his fastball now. Those two probably won't get anymore than what Chris Benson got (minor league contract with an ST invite) and that's if they get anything at all.

"The only way I'd like to see Mench back is as a hotdog vendor" - jd

by lonestarJon on Feb 17, 2008 12:29 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

uhhhhh

It is going to be extraordinarily surprising to me if Guillermo Quiroz gets the 189 at bats Pecota projects him to get for the Rangers since he signed with Baltimore in December.

by Brandon Wilson on Feb 16, 2008 1:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

on top of that

the Jones for Bedard trade does not appear to be factored into the numbers...

by Brandon Wilson on Feb 16, 2008 2:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i should say

they may have removed Jones from Seattle's offensive numbers but do not appear to have placed his plate appearances (unless I am missing something)

by Brandon Wilson on Feb 16, 2008 2:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not really a surprising projection.

If Hamilton is injury free, his bat is comparable to Teixeira's. Bradley is an upgrade to Lofton/Cruz, but the rest of the lineup is about the same as last year.

The pitching staff is much the same. On the surface, a record similar to last makes sense.

Below the surface.... TR's got the right idea. If alot of folks do what they've done at least once before, the Rangers' could win in the upper 80s, it would seem.

If I owned a lightsaber, the blade color would be black light, so that I could use it to fight evil and to liven-up parties.

by rooster on Feb 16, 2008 3:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't get the Kinsler projection

What in his past causes one to project a regression for Kinsler? I don't get it.

by Brett Perryman on Feb 16, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Zywica...

all I know is it can't read intangables. There is nothing on Kinsler's line its picking up and saying, "thats a good sign". I think there are often guys that are on the cusp and the majority of them fail so the computer plays the percentages.

by corbsclinton on Feb 16, 2008 5:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

haha... M's Cellar Dwellers???

I love it! Cause I hate the M's. However, I seriously doubt this. M's could very well win the division this year. It's all about the Angels and the M's in the AL west this year.

MrExcel Video Podcast Loves me some LSB. btwI was the first that said loves me some

by hurlerhurley on Feb 16, 2008 9:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't have access to BP...

But I was looking at Josh Hamilton's stats from last year. Is there any concern about his home/away split or his lefty/righty split? The numbers seem disconcerting to me, but I'm not sure how big a sample size you need before you can identify it as a problem.

Split: ABs/Avg/OBP/SLG/OPS

Total: 298/.292/.368/.554/.922

Home: 141/.312/.372/.617/.989
Away: 157/.274/.365/.497/.862

Righty: 226/.314/.391/.637/1.028
Lefty: 72/.222/.296/.292/.588

The lefty-righty split is pretty extreme, but he's only had 72 AB's against lefties.

by GhettoBear04 on Feb 17, 2008 9:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Back when the trade first came down

I recall reading on some Reds blog that Hamilton actually hit lefties well in the minors, but his minor league sample sizes are so small, they don't mean much - he hit .333 against lefties in 2007 for AAA Louisville, but that was only 15 AB's. In 10 AB's against lefties in 2006 for the Hudson Valley Renagades though, he hit .200. Again, that's a very limited sample size, so take that for what it's worth. It sounds to me like, he was protected against lefties in the minors, so based on the ML stats, I'd say it's a fair assumption he doesn't hit them very well (yet). Of course, it's not like that's something new for a left-handed bat - that's why LOOGY's where invented.

Really, if there's gonna be one acchiles heel for this lineup this year, it's gonna be our surplus of left-handed hitters - it makes us very susceptible to LHP. Aside from Ian Kinsler, our power attack against lefties is practically zero.

"The only way I'd like to see Mench back is as a hotdog vendor" - jd

by lonestarJon on Feb 18, 2008 12:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs