Pedro Alvarez out with broken hand

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265666.html

Teenage Hitters: Elvis Andrus vs. Angel Villalona vs. Fernando Martinez

Jim Callis: Andrus is easily the most well-rounded player of this trio, but I still wonder about how much offense he's going to provide. I'll take one of the bat-only guys, and for me, it's Villalona. The Mets aren't doing Martinez any favors by rushing him, and Villalona is ultimately going to be more productive.

Chris Kline: Andrus. Everything he does is easy, and I think he's going to hit just fine. Easily the best instincts and athleticism out of this group, with leadership skills to boot. Villalona will likely be limited to first base and unlike everyone else on the planet, I'm just not a Martinez believer. His age is one thing, but show me something that translates into games.

Will Lingo: I've been impressed not only by Andrus' tools and all-around game but also by his desire to lead and get the most of his ability. Martinez will hit but I don't think if it will be enough to be a star, and I'm sorry, but when I see the photos of Villalona at 17 I just worry about him controlling his body. Of course, a teenage Prince Fielder wasn't exactly a pinup model either.

John Manuel: Andrus has the most athleticism of this group and his bat started coming around in the Cal League. He's still got a lot of projection but also has now tools defensively. Martinez and Villalona have more offensive potential for sure, and also lack much value other than their bats. If Andrus is an average hitter and premium defender at short, he'll be more valuable.

Corner Bats: Neil Walker vs. Chris Davis

Jim Callis: I had these guys back to back on my personal list, with Walker ahead of Davis. Davis has more pure power, but Walker has some pop too, he's a better bet to hit because he controls the strike zone a lot better and he's a better athlete who will be able to stay at third base.

Chris Kline: I love both guys for different reasons, and now that it looks like Davis will be a first baseman, you have to go Walker. Sure, Davis has much bigger power, but Walker was the better defender at third anyway and will hit for a higher average regardless of the position.

Will Lingo: Walker gets higher marks for his athleticism, which will allow him to stay at third, but I sort of deferred to Aaron Fitt on this one: If Davis is good enough to be No. 2 in an organization with as much talent as the Rangers, then I'm a believer.

John Manuel: Davis was moving to first base in spring training, a reason I think we liked Walker better in the first place. I also believe Walker will be more than solid offensively. Davis has more upside because of his power but reminds me of Dallas McPherson with all those strikeouts.

Catchers: Taylor Teagarden vs. Hank Conger vs. Bryan Anderson

Jim Callis: Conger has the most upside with the bat, but I like Teagarden more. He's underrated as a hitter and far superior defensively. He still needs to prove he can stay healthy, as does Conger. Anderson can't hang with those two guys outside of hitting for average.

Chris Kline: My guys out of this group are Teagarden and Anderson. Sure, Conger has more raw power than both, but Teagarden is the best defender on the menu. Anderson got killed for his defense last year--after the Futures Game when the World team ran wild--but that isn't a fair assessment of his current tools or where they will be in two years. Teagarden and Anderson each have offensive upside too, just not as much as Conger.

Will Lingo: I'm not convinced Anderson is going to be a good catcher after talking to guys in the Texas League last year, but I do believe he can stay there and I like his bat the best. The danger of personal observation: I've never been high on Conger after watching him have a bad round of BP at the 2005 Aflac Classic.

John Manuel: For a supposedly glove-first guy, Teagarden had a great season offensively. But he needs to prove he can catch everyday and hit like that for me to jump on board. Anderson's younger and handles a staff well, and seems to have the best combination of offense and defense of the trio.

From Lindy's Baseball 2008 Preview:

Pedro Alvaerez 3B
Vanderbilt, L/R, 6'2" 225
From NYC, NY
Previously drafted in the 15th round of the 2005 draft by the Red Sox

"Alvaerez hit a school-record 22 home runs as a freshman followed by 18 as a sophomore, while leading the Commodores in batting (.386) and RBI (68). He was also the dominant hitter for Team USA the past two summers. Alvarez is a complete player, but he is a hitter first and foremost. He has impressive bat speed, natural lift in his swing, and power to all fields. He is capable of making adjustments from AB to AB, though he has a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone, resulting in 129 strikeouts in his first two seasons at Vanderbilt. Alvarez' hands and actions at third base are acceptable, and he's a steady and reliable fielder.Though he gets caught on his heels occasionally, he moves his feet well to both sides, and excels at coming in on slow rollers. He won't be a basestealer, but he runs well enough, and has enough baserunning instincts. Alvarez has all the physical ability to be a big league all-star, and gets high marks for his makeup."

As much as I would love to see Alvarez picked by the Rangers it would require an absolutely horrendous season which would be a mix of recovering from injury as well as just plain bad hitting.  I don't see that happening as Alvarez is a phenomenal talent at this point and a six week hand injury shouldn't carry too many problems after the initial recovery.

Worsh feature - http://www.wfaa.com/video/sports-index.html?nvid=221348

Hambone feature [Drugs r bad, mmmkay?] - http://video.nbc5i.com/player/?id=222395

The only way he slips to the Rangers isn't due to a hand injury. It's if he asks for 15 million bucks and spooks teams above them. But even then the Orioles, White Sox, Nats, Giants, and Reds might be willing to take on the challenge.

So I'd put the odds of Alvarez slipping to the Rangers at 100:1.

...but BA updated yesterday that the injury is believed by scouts to be a hamate bone. I tend to agree with John above that there is no way in the world that any of this causes him to fall to Texas, but it's really disappointing for whoever picks him. He's probably going to miss two months, then see his power sapped for at least the rest of the year and probably some of next season.

Considering what his bonus demands will be, this could be a messy situation, and it definitely makes it easier to see him dropping past the first pick at least.