Mike Piazza hurt his shoulder and is out for 4-6 weeks according to ESPN.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2858574

So...does Oakland have anyone left?

Bobby Kielty, Milton Bradley, Rich Harden, Estaban Loiaza, Mark Kotsay, and now Mike Piazza are on the DL.

Seriously, we're 2 games back of them?  They weren't that good to begin with.  I'm embarrassed.

Fist, I'm not a super good with the stats, so if someone better wants to provide some insight or correct my 1,000 errors, feel free.

Anyway, here's why I'm alright with trading Otsuka: I'm not convinced he is going to have an other good season next year.

When Otsuka came over to the Padres in '04, he was really good.  He had an ERA+ of 238, Win Share of 11.4, and  a VORP of 32.5; went 7-2 with a 1.75 era.

But in '05, he had an ERA+ of 108 (down 130), Win Share of 4.2 (down 7.2) and a VORP of 9.2 (down 23.3); went 2-8 with a 3.59 era.  That's a HUGE drop.  

In '06, he was back to an ERA+ of 227, Win Share of 11.1, sorry don't know the '06 VORP; went 2-4 with a 2.11 era.  

Why the precipitous drop in '05?  Well, one thing I heard tossed around after the CY trade was that Otsuka would have a good year for Texas because the AL hitters wouldn't be ready for his quirky delivery.

Otsuka has that unusual hitch in his motion and I think it throws a lot of hitters off.  This could be one of the reasons he was so successful in '04: hitters weren't ready for him.  However, in '05, the NL hitters had time to study his delivery in the off-season, and had also seen him several times.

Then, when he came to the AL in '06, he was facing new hitters again.  I haven't heard anything about any injuries in '05, so I have to think this may be a plausible explanation.  

I really wish I could find Otsuka's stats against the AL during interleague play in '05.  Anyone got anything??  If he was stellar during interleague play but weak during division play, I think it may prove my point.  

Anyway, 3 years are hardly enough to establish a pattern, but I am still a little worried about next season.  I think that if we can get a good return for Otsuka, especially considering the depth of our pen, we should take it.

So, I've been reading LSB pretty much all season, but I've never posted till now (I'm in law school and busy as hell).  Anyway, it seems like everyone on this site is freaking out about next year.  I'm worried that the Rangers might choke over this off-season and screw themselves over for next year.

I mean, this free agent class is pretty lame.  Matsuzaka was the only potential ace.  Zito, Schmidt, Padilla, Lilly, ect. are all good but with serious problems.  Soriano is the only top-flight hitter (and I worry about his commitment...Soriano may have pulled a Dampier and gone crazy during his contract season only to regress next year).    Lee and Ramirez are both better than average hitters.  

But look at next year's (potential) free agents.  It's scary.  

Carlos Zambrano, Joe Nathan, Chris Carpenter, Curt Shilling, Jason Jennings, Bartolo Colon, John Smoltz, Jake Westbrook.

Ichiro, Andruw Jones, Carlos Guillen, Vernon Wells, Pudge, Michael Young, Torii Hunter, Marcus Giles, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, Jermaine Dye, Brandon Inge,

That's a ridiculous list, especially compared to this year's meager selections.  Now I'm sure that some of those guys (please God, Michael Young) will sign early, but it will still be an amazing class.  

Basically, I'm worried that the Rangers are going to be so focused on 2007 that they are going to give some big, long-term contracts to Zito types and not have any money for 2008.  I'm not good with the whole money situation, so maybe someone smarter can figure out what salaries the Rangers have coming off the books after next season.

If we go get Zito, Padilla, Frank Thomas, and Brian Roberts, what $$ will be left?

Because Wells, Dye, and Zambrano sounds a lot better

P.S. What's the deal with all the lawyers on LSB?  Weird.