Hey guys, I'm in the middle of a draft review for the Hardball Times and I am looking for input.

Justin Smoak was not apart of the first installment, but this was because I had already created a scouting report on him before the draft using the usual video analysis, which readers can get here:

Justin Smoak

Congrats on getting this guy because as an Oriole fan, he was the guy I wanted all along.  And to get him at 11 is a real coup.  I found this interesting tidbit over at McCovey Chronicals via Baseball Prospectus:

College first basemen are the most valuable group of draft picks by an enormous margin. College first basemen selected in the first round have gone on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers approximately one-third of the time.

Now, for this draft, you'll see me report on Harold Martinez and I'll probably do Robert Ross.

But now I need your input on other prospects (draft related) you would like to see broken down.  I can't promise to do everyone, but I promise to come back and break down 3 or 4 of the guys you choose specifically for Lone Star.

So let me know.

Hey guys, I'm in the middle of a draft review series for THT over the next few weeks, and I want some suggestions for players to look at.

I've already done a profile on Jemile Weeks , who while I think is an overdraft, should still give the A's some solid value once he is ready for major league pitching.

I'm already planning to do break downs on players up to pick 50, but I realize Oakland didn't have a selection after Weeks until 58.

So here are some thoughts on some Oakland picks:

58. Tyson Ross - I've seen scouting reports that have his velocity up to 94 or 95, but the video doesn't show that.  It showed him working in the mid - upper 80's and his mechanics bear that out: little use of his lower body, short stride.  Of course, the video was taken in 2007, and I'm very interested to see the changes made to his mechanics that allowed him to see a jump in velocity.

90. Preston Paramore - I liked what I saw, though I didn't see many swings (maybe that is due to his plate discipline), but he put a solid swing on the ball and let it travel relatively deep.  Not a lot of upside, but I like him nonetheless.

214. Brett Hunter - I like this pick.  Ross never really used his lower body, but Hunter maximizes his use of his lower body as evidenced by his mid-90's velocity.  I saw pretty good control as well and he could move quickly.

394. Daniel Thomas - shows good control and pretty solid 3 or 4 pitch mix.  Can get his fastball up to 93 with movement and I think he has some more velocity left in the tank as well

664. Preston Guilmet - this was a pure results-oriented pick.  He put up great #s at Arizona, but when you watch you see an awkward wind-up (helping with deception), and pretty fringy stuff.  He does all the things pitchers need to do like change speeds, pitch backwards, etc, but we'll see what happens....definitely a results vs. scouting battle here.

So if there any suggestions for players to profile (including more in-depth breakdowns on the players above) please let me know

Hey guys, in case anybody is interested I have a breakdown of Justin Smoak's swing mechanics here:

Justin Smoak 

I know he is a long shot to fall to the Nationals, but I think he would be a clear choice for if he were to fall.  I found this tidbit from Baseball Prospectus via the McCovey Chronicals:

College first basemen are the most valuable group of draft picks by an enormous margin. College first basemen selected in the first round have gone on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers approximately one-third of the time.

First, let me point out this scouting report on Brandon Tripp that people should find interesting since it gives you video of his swing and the adjustments he has made since being drafted:

Brandon Tripp report 

Second, and I'm not sure if anybody has noticed, but Chris Tillman has been excellent his past two starts:

12 IP, 0 Runs, 4 Hits, 15 Ks, 5 BBs

Remember, just 20 years old and close to dominating in Double-A.  People don't realize he is the youngest pitcher in Double-A.  The second youngest?  Clayton Kershaw.

Jake Arrieta has also been dominating, striking out close to 30% of batters faced and he has had five starts in which he has gone at least five innings and allowed no more than two hits.

Matt Wieters continues to pummel Frederick, maintaining an OPS over 1.000

Billy Rowell has heated up after a slow start with an .877 OPS in May.  He still is striking out way too much and hitting the ball too often on the ground, but it is still nice to see him hitting well right now.

Add in the success of David Hernandez, Brad Bergesen, and Jason Berken in Double-A plus the emergence of little talked about Zach Britton, a projectable lefty in Delmarva that has showed off plus control and a GB% of 69% and there is a lot to like in the minors.

Hey guys, I thought everybody would be interested in this article Brandon Wood.  I know the guy has gotten off to a fairly miserable start at the major league level thus far, but my feeling is that Wood should at least become a low average, high power, good fielding SS as long as he works past any extended slumps that are bound to happen due to his propensity for striking out. I conducted a scouting report on Wood, which I link to below:

Brandon Wood 

Wood's value would obviously be much higher at SS than at 3b.  However, I do have a question: does Aybar have SS locked down?  His glove is sick, but I do still have some questions about his bat.

Hey guys, I thought readers might be interested in this piece on Tyler Colvin.  It isn't a positive review of Colvin, but readers who have not seen his swing might be interested in taking a look.

I've never really been high on Colvin because his plate discipline has been atrocious his entire career and while he is a good athlete, I don't see him as a guy who has all these great tools and just needs to put it together.

Now, he is walking slightly more this year, but his K's are way up and his power is down.

It is always possible the light bulb goes off in a player's head and they do put it all together, so I'm not completely writing the guy off, but the terrible K:BB ratio is just a giant red flag.  I think this should be a lesson for teams to be wary of college hitters who don't show much plate discipline and only show modest power, especially in the first round.  The link to the article is below, for anybody interested:

Tyler Colvin Scouting Report 

I'm sure many readers have heard of him, but if not he is a fourth round pick of Dodgers out of Newbury high school in CA.  I view him as a player that should be closely watched as he has the capability of breaking out in a big way.  I did a write up for him that includes some video of him here:

Andrew Lambo 

To start off, he's very young for his league and has already very solid power while still having a good amount of projection left.  He makes consistent, hard contact and has a very good looking swing.  He does need to cut down on the K's.  And there were questions about his character heading into the draft.

For discussion, are there any other really under the radar guys that could have a rocket type rise up the prospect rankings in the next couple years?

Hey guys, I'm not a Rockies fan, but I thought you would be interested in this piece on Dexter Fowler.  The article allows you to get a feel for the mechanics of his swing from both sides of the plate.

Already a great defensive player, and already possessing great plate discipline, his power was really the only question mark and that seems to have been answered this year.  I am still trying to find video on him from this year because his swing from last year (especially from the right side) were not conducive to hitting for power.  

Dexter Fowler vs. Tyler Colvin

You guys should be excited about the prospects of him patrolling center field for years to come.

Also, I'm sure you guys are aware Franklin Morales was sent down to AAA tonight.  Tomorrow I am publishing an article on his struggles and I'll say this:

His loss of velocity is solely mechanics based and his loss of control is based on overthinking his new mechanics that are supposed to improve his control.  I hope that makes sense.

I have video of him from last year and this year and the differences are clear in my opinion.

I have a couple scouting reports using video analysis on Dexter Fowler and Tyler Colvin.  Both players have gone in completely different directions as players this year.  Both were similarly rated coming into this season, but both had questionable numbers and one has broken out (Fowler) and the other has not (Colvin):

Dexter Fowler vs. Tyler Colvin

My thoughts on Fowler:

Already a great defensive player, and already possessing great plate discipline, his power was really the only question mark and that seems to have been answered this year.  I had video on Fowler from last year, but I am still trying to find video on him from this year because his swing from last year (especially from the right side) were not conducive to hitting for power.

Thoughts on Colvin

I've never understood the hype Colvin has gotten.  He is a good athlete, shows moderate power, and can play an average CF.  However, his plate discipline is awful.  Not many players succeed at the major league level with a 10:1 K:BB ratio.  I'm also not crazy about his swing.

If there is somebody that was really high on Colvin heading into the year, I would love to hear the reasons because I just don't see it...

Hey guys, I run the website Baseball Intellect and first let me say I am not a Twins fan, but I think readers would be interested in this piece on Francisco Liriano.  There have been many articles that have analyzed the stuff Liriano displayed on Sunday, but I want to show you the changes in his mechanics using some video from Sunday and video of him in 2006.

The link to the full article is below:

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/francisco-liriano-injury.html

But I want to explain a couple things...there is a clear difference in his mechanics, especially his arm action.  Given that he has made just one major league start since returning from surgery, we won't know the full effect of his mechanical changes until probably some time next year.

But the Twins definitely went the "safer" route.  And so I ask readers what I ask myself in that article...if you had a choice between Liriano with safer mechanics (but lets say he becomes a normal #3 starter) or a Liriano as his Cy Young caliber self but with his riskier, more aggressive mechanics, which version do you choose?