This week's Hot Sheet is lead by Kansas Royals' 2007 1st round pick, Mike Moustakas.  After a one HR April with a slashstat line of 190/253/226, his celing looked a lot lower.

Now he has 20 HRs in his first full season and has a slashstat line of 267/330/472 in the hitter unfriendly Midwest League.  His star remains undiminished going into 2009 fantasy drafts..

There will be a chat about the Hot Sheet at 3PM.  It is open to the public so feel free to chime in and ask why Matt Wieters doesn't have a permanent spot reserved for him.

In high A, he hit 15 HRs with 8 doubles in 229 ABs for a slashstat line of 345/448/576 with 47 K and 44 BBs.  in Double-A, he has 7 HRs and 10 doubles in 130 ABs for a slashstat line of 354/452/592 with 19 Ks and 25 BBs.

Looks like he's ready for the next level.

Has anyone noticed how well Los Angeles Dodgers' rookie LHP Clayton Kershaw has pitched lately?  Over his past three starts, he has thrown 19 innings of one-run ball.  That is more than enough to grab him and hope his four walks in last night's game have become the aberration.  There is not enough time left in the season to hope for representative sample sizes.

ESPN Fantasy-predicted 22-game winner, Johan Santana, had his sixth win blown by the Mets' bullpen yesterday afternoon.  With a 2.85 ERA on the season, one would hope he'd have more than 9 wins.  After all, Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks has 16 Wins to go with his 2.93 ERA.

Am I the only one more concerned about his drop his Ks more than his inability to see his bullpen wrap-up a Win?  Or should I be more concerned about the Mets' bullpen?

Lastings Milledge hit his 10th and 11th HRs of the season.  Based on his Spring Training talk of 30 SBs, one would have expected more from him by this point.  Those two HRs get his totals into the "interesting' category.  He leads the Nationals in that category and has 14 SBs to go with them.

So far, he has played in just 93 of the Nationals 115 games to date.  With 47 games left, he could end-up being a surrpisingly good fantasy player with a 15+/15+ HR/SB season.  Given his age and a projection over 162-games in 2009, I won't be surprised to see him projected to be a 20/20 player in 2009.  That will be enough to get him selected in the 9th-11th rounds of fantasy drafts.

At this point in the season, fantasy teams are either checking the standings multiple times a day, games being play notwithstanding, or they are getting ready for their fantasy football drafts.  For those who care, an injury right now is likely a guilt-free decision to cut a player.  "4-6" weeks means the rest of the season.

That is why the injury to Yankees' budding ace, Joba Chamberlain, gets so much interest.  If he is out just a couple weeks, then he has considerable 2008 value to those whose seasons ride on the final seven weeks of the 2008 baseball season.  If he is out a month or more, then his value dimishes exponentially.

The news that he has shoulder tendonitis was as good as fantasy players could expect.  The question is how quickly he picks-up a ball.  In his Under The Knife column, Will Carroll offers his expert opinion and a signal to look for in determining how bad the shoulder is really hurt. (The Joba explanation is available to non-subscribers.)

While the New York Yankees can nor rival the deception on injuries coming out of J.P. Ricciardi's office in Toronto, the severity of C Jorge Posada's shoulder injury has defintely left a stain on the team's information reliability though.  I'm not ready to pair the two organizations, but I understand others who would espeically if Joba's shoulder turns out to need surgery.

Before I left for vacation, I was wondering whether to continue forward to make it into the Top 5 in my AL-Only 4x4 keeper league or close shop and focus on fantasy football.  When I left I had 48 points.  When I returned, I had 40 points, and then Job Chamberlain hit the D.L. with shoulder tendonitis.

The writing is on the wall (and it reads, "When do you draft Brandon Marshall?).  So I went and reviewed the rosters of the top teams and came away very uninterested in what they have to offer.  Scratching my head, I am baffled how they are even at the top of the standings.

This has been a season-long issue for me, and it looks as if I may be compelled to write-off 2008 as an aberration.  Will the best pitchers in 2009 be Justin Duchscherer, Cliff Lee and Joe Saunders?  Will Carlos Quentin be amongst the HR leaders next year?  Will those HR leaders hit fewer than 35?

If one answers "yes" to those questions, how different 2009 fantasy preparation be from 2008 preparation?

For New York Yankees and Mets fans looking for information on Joba Chamberlain and/or closer Billy Wagner, Baseball Prospectus has kindly included those updates in the non-subscriber portion of Will Carroll's Under The Knife column.  It's fingers-crossed for both pitchers.  Click through to see why a trip to Pensacola may be as alarming as a trip to Birmingham used to be for baseball fans.

Will follows-up on the news that Texas Rangers' closer, C.J. Wilson, will undergo elbow surgery to remove bone spurs.  The Rangers' closer job looks wide open for the rest of the season.  With Eddie Guardado getting the first shot, he appears to be the early favorite but don't discount Frankie Francisco getting a look either.

With Wilson out, I was reminded why I traded him earlier this season.  At the time, I was derided for dealing a $7 closer for a $35 Paul Konerko in this 4x4 AL-Only keeper league.  The gamble I took was akin to dealing too early rather than waiting until it was too late. 

With the turnover in closers, I decided to bank the two "seasons" of Saves I got from Wilson and sell him high.  Unfortunately, the White Sox disclosed Konerko had a hurt hand the day after I acquired him, and the Rangers stuck with Wilson in the role despite his 1.60+ WHIP.

Hindsight has made the deal an awful one for me, but the rationalization behind the deal is still solid.  Dealing closers after a season plus of success will generally work in your favor.  I did the same with Takashi Saito and used him to land Lastings Milledge and Jordan Schafer in the pre-season (NL-Only 4x4 keeper).  But It has not worked out as well when I dealt Joakim "The Mexicutioner" Soria for Melky Cabrera, Brian Bannister and Matt Wieters.

Two out of three ain't bad, right?

Once a player demonstrates a skill, he owns it.  This adage is attributed to Ron Shandler at Baseball HQ and frequently used to project a rebound from a worse performance level to a better one - assuming that player has been at that better level as some time in the player's past.

I hear it frequently enough on various fantasy sports shows and podcasts that I conclude it to be an accepted piece of fantasy intelligence.  What I wonder is how it jibes with the arguments of small sample size when applied to players who have had a particularly good stretch of performance.

Does the hot stretch of performance mean the player now "owns" the skill?  If it does, doesn't that negate the small sample size argument?

How about a bad stretch of performance?  Doesn't that mean he owns the ability to be especially crappy or is that just a small sample size argument against the players not being good?

The hamster on the wheel in my head just collapses whenever I try to reconcile the acceptence of the Shandler adage and my knowledge of sample sizes.  Can this be resolved?

From Buster Olney:

The best-case scenario is that Chamberlain will be back in the rotation relatively soon and will continue to be effective. But keep in mind that no matter how fragile the Yankees' rotation is, and no matter how much they need Chamberlain to stay in the rotation, their priority will be to protect Chamberlain from a potentially serious injury.

Did you sell high?  I know I didn't.  The offer I did not accept was a $17 Mark Beuhrle  in the first of three years of control for an out-of-time Chamberlain.

What I'd accept for Chamberlain is uncertain.  Would I grab the next offer that gives me anything for next season?  I'm not sure.  What would you do?

The Florida Marlins signed Dallas MacPherson this past off-season after the Los Angeles Angels released him.  He was a hot sleeper prospect for 3B in NL-Only leagues only to be sent to AAA and watch Jorge Cantu take his place.

So far with Albuquerque in the Pacific Coast League, he has hit 39 HRs to lead all minor leaguers.  He is closely followed by another 4A hitter Nelson Cruz of Texas.  While the HRs totals are gaudy enough to cause fantasy players to grab either player if they are recalled, those fantasy players in deep keeper leagues should be more focused on the younger prospects on the HR leader board.

The most notable ones are 21-year-old Chris Carter of the Oakland A's, 20-year-old Greg Halman of the Seattle Mariners and 18-year-old Mike Stanton of the Florida Marlins.  All three are young enough to be legitimate prospects and offer a combination of skills that bear watching.

Here are the HR leaders in the minor leagues and other "relevent" stats to help you decide who the legit power prospects are.

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Here is a ranking of the various fantasy football magazines on the market.  Personally, I have Rotowire, Fantasy Football Index and Fanball.com's magazines, and I disagree with the writer's rankings. 

There is no way Fantasy Football Index is as far down as he ranks it.  It is easy to read and has a wealth of information.  Rotowire is ranked three of four stars, but I'd defintely give it four.  Maybe that is because I agree with there stance on ranking for skills and the risks one must take, but I find it very readable, too.

I'd also include Pro Football Prospectus 2008 amongst the group.  For the price of a trade paperback, you get a ton of general football knowledge and player information.  if you want heavy statistical analysis, it is for you.  if you just want the articles, the same.  Or just player write-ups.  Or fantasy rankings.