December 1st and the deadline for making arbitration offers to 6-year free agents has passed.  The Jays offered arbitration to A.J. Burnett, to the surprise of no one.  They did not offer arbitration to Gregg Zaun, who is apparently an item of interest to the Detroit Tigers.  

The biggest thing to take from the day is big news, in my opinion, and it is this:  If you thought, amidst rising attendance and revenues over the past few seasons across the league, that the sluggish economy would not affect the baseball market, you were wrong.  At least the teams themselves are clearly convinced that the market is going to be cold for these free agents, or they would be offering them arbitration.  Just a few players who were not offered arbitration, who almost certainly would've been in a players' FA market:  Edgar Renteria, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, Randy Wolf, Kerry Wood, Adam Dunn, Joe Beimel, Pat Burrell, Braden Looper, Jamie Moyer.  Rince will be happy since we can now sign Jamie Moyer and not give up a draft pick.  Certainly, for example, the Diamondbacks did not envision getting no draft picks for Dunn when they traded for him, but that will be the result.  And what do the Yankees of all teams have to fear from getting someone like Abreu or Pettitte on 1-year deals?  Nothing, unless they think they can sign the same or comparable players for significantly less on the market. 

In terms of names of interest to the Jays, Milton Bradley was offered arbitration, but as a type B free agent the team that signs him will not have to give up anything.

If I had to guess what this means for the free agent market: clearly, the top guys like Sabathia are going to get their money.  Below the first tier of free agents, the situation is less clear.  A wise agent might counsel his clients to take a 1-year deal for a higher annual salary in order to wait out the market, rather than accept a multiyear deal at a less-than-desired salary, so we might see players sign for shorter deals than they had originally requested.  It's also possible the market will be robust and teams are just being overly conservative, but I doubt it.    Perhaps with the price driven down, the Jays will find themselves in a position to sign some free agents after all - if nothing else, we know they have the payroll room from last season.  Short-term deals for a pitcher or a DH would be just the thing, since the Jays' pitching situation looks much better in 2010 and there are some hitters on the way as well.  We will just have to see how this plays out. 

Hugo:  So can the Jays really compete with Rod Barajas catching, and Marco Scutaro playing SS, every day? 

Rincewind:  Short answer: Sure. They competed pretty good in the second half of last season with the two of them. Longer answer, still yeah but with qualifiers. The other offensive positions have to be strong. We can’t afford to have both of them in the line up and one of the Munchkins from the Wizard of Oz DHing. We have to get offense from DH, LF, 3B and 1B if we are going to win with these two.

Also Barajas can’t hit in the middle of the line up. I don’t care if he has a hot week or two, he can’t bat 5^th, because when he goes a month without a hit it drags the team down with him. Let him bat 8^th and take the hot streaks as a bonus from the bottom of the order. With Scoot, don’t lead him off! Let him bat 9^th and be happy that he gets on now and then to get us back to the top of the order quicker. If he leads off 100 times this year I don’t see it being a fun year.

Hugo:  Scoot and Barajas seem so predictable offensively.  They seem like locks for a 700-ish OPS apiece.  But there are questions – Barajas hasn’t really been a full-time catcher, and 100 games might be pushing it.  Scoot was great defensively last season, or so the numbers (and my lyin’ eyes) say, but he never had much of a reputation as a defensive shortstop before that.  The Jays have no one ready to take over at SS (Johnny Mac doesn’t count) other than possibly Aaron Hill, and J.P. Arencibia might be rushed were he promoted to full-time duty this season.  I tend to think that a team that was serious about competing and had the average-at-best offense that the Jays have would be content to enter the season with one of the two, but not both, as everyday players.  So I’d like to see one of the positions upgraded.  I wonder if the Mets would trade Ramon Castro for Jason Frasor?  Castro has been a very capable backup and he could easily be given more playing time with his skills, with he and Rod splitting time.  That sure would be a cheap solution.  I suppose Thigpen could still surprise offensively and play himself into more playing time, but it sure doesn’t look like it. 

Rincewind:  I’m not as much against Thigpen in the backup spot as most are, but I think the problem with him is Cito won’t use him at all. It think he’d use Barajas till he broke down which wouldn’t be good, other than we’d get an early look at Arencibia. I wouldn’t mind picking up Castro. I think he’s at least as good as Barajas.

I’ll admit I’m not sold on Scoot’s defence at short but he did look good last year. I thought that Mac didn’t look as good as he has in the past. A lot of the time it looked like he was trying too hard to prove how goes he was. Maybe if he was playing more it wouldn’t have tried to make something out of nothing so often.

Hugo:  I wouldn’t mind Thigpen as the backup if we had a better regular, but we don’t, and Cito is clearly in love with Barajas for whatever reason.  Barajas hasn’t been the most durable over his career so I just see the situation ending badly (though I am looking forward to seeing Arencibia, his AFL campaign was just more of what he did during the minor league season and he really needs to learn to recognize breaking ball and lay off bad pitches).  Mac was a disaster last season, his defense was just okay and his hitting was the worst it’s ever been.  I’m not down on him as a bench player but I can’t see how he’s earned any kind of starting gig, and Cito actually played him more than I would’ve liked. 

I guess my final answer is that it would be great to upgrade at SS, since Jackson is likely a couple of years away.  I’m really hoping we get Hardy, unless Snider is the cost, of course.  But catcher we might be best served to just bring in a vet to help hold down the fort for 1 more season, since Arencibia is much closer to being ready than Jackson. 

Rincewind:  Hardy would be terrific. Like you say, Jackson is years away and there is no guarantee that he will turn into the player we are hoping for. I wonder if Pastornicky won’t pass him along the way. I think, if we don’t pick up Hardy or Furcal (and it doesn’t look like we are going to go after him), I think we are going to have to live with Scoot. Just not as a leadoff man, ok Cito?

The nice part about the catcher situation is that there are a lot of veteran catchers on the market, and most of them would be happy with a one or two year deal. I have the feeling JP will see how things shake out and then sign whoever is left just before spring training.

Part 1: Good and Bad of 2008
Part 2:Jays Priorities for the Offseason
Part 3: Should the Jays Rebuild?
Part 4: Who Should Lead Off For the Jays?

Part 5:  How Should the Jays Fill Out Their Rotation

Hugo: Wow, this is a really depressing song from which to continue to pull quotes for our offseason conversation. Anyway, the 2009 starting rotation will likely consist of Doc Halladay, Jesse Litsch, and David Purcey as next season begins. How should the other two spots be filled, by free agency, trade, or from within, and by whom?

Rincewind: I think one of the spots can be filled from within. I’d like Janssen to get the job. If he is as good as he looked before the injury he could be a very good starter. If he can’t start then I’d look to Richmond who did a decent job last year in his handful of starts or perhaps one of the Romeros. I’d much prefer Cecil to stretch out his pitch count in Triple A than to have him thrown to the mercy of Cito ‘Pitch count? I don’t need no stinking pitch count’ Gaston.

The other spot I would like to see a free agent signed, mostly because other than Doc none of the other possible starters look to be able to go deep into games and even a bullpen as deep as ours looks to be could use the odd night off. I’d like them to look at Derek Lowe, as I think his ground ball pitching matches the strength of out infield defence nicely and he would be good trade bait when McGowan comes back, if the rest of the staff is strong.

Hugo: I like your idea of filling one of the spots internally and one of the spots from outside the organization. We have contingencies for the back end of the rotation in Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond, so I don’t think there’s too much risk there. Cecil should definitely begin in AAA, in my opinion – he still needs work on his durability building up his arm strength and getting his innings up. If he is called up this season, I’d prefer it be as a bullpen ace so that he doesn’t obliterate his inning count from last season.

Lowe would be nice, I don’t see it happening though. With Burnett and Sabathia recently getting huge offers, I think someone is going to be willing to go 4/60 ish on Lowe and I can’t see that being the Jays. I can definitely seeing them sign someone like Brad Penny or Mark Mulder, though, to a 1-year deal. Pedro would also be fun. I’d love to see them sign Randy Johnson or Pettitte was better than his numbers show, but those are long shots, I think. I’d really like to stay away from the ilk of Paul Byrd, I don’t see how those types will be any better than Romero or Richmond. Romero, in particular, could work his way into the rotation. If he's sorted out his control issues and his arm is healthy, he might be a better option than Purcey as he's got three quality pitches.

Rincewind: I’m not a big fan of Mulder but, only half kidding, what do you think of Jamie Moyer? He had a heck of the season last year, I’d imagine he’d be relatively cheap and he wouldn’t be looking for a long term contract, as he’s reached that age that you no longer buy green bananas. Personally I’d like someone that could go deeper into a game, but he uses his infield. And, let’s face it, we won’t get into a bidding war on him.

Other than the other guys we’ve mentioned, I wonder if Carl Pavano would go for a one year, heavily incentive filled contract? Jon Garland is another pitcher that we could look at; he can pitch a team late into games.

Hugo: Pavano could be a decent pickup -- though he looked pretty awful from what I saw last season, he hadn’t pitched in so long in the majors it’s no surprise that he wasn’t at his best. Garland is interesting – he’s very average, but gets tons of groundballs (between Halladay, Litsch, and Janssen and later McGowan, not to mention perhaps Downs we should once again have lots of work for our infielders!) and has been quite durable. He’s also coming off a subpar year so although he could easily get a multiyear deal, he might prefer a shorter term deal in order to up his value for his next contract. I’m not sure that Garland really represents much of an upgrade from what Richmond or Romero could do, though, so I tend to think the money could be better used elsewhere.

Moyer in the AL East would be fascinating to watch, but he made it work in that bandbox in Philly so you never know. I doubt he’ll be coming back to the AL though. One possibility could be Aaron Heilman, the Mets have used him as a setup man but he was a 3-pitch pitcher in college (Notre Dame) and really wants to try starting. He had an awful season last year but was quite good in the 2 seasons before that. I bet he’d come very cheap in a trade since he’s disgruntled with relieving and the Mets don’t see him as a starter. It might be good to bring him in and give him a shot at winning a starting job.

Mulder, of course, is a long shot to ever produce again after multiple shoulder surgeries, but he’ll likely accept a minor-league deal, and he’s a groundball pitcher who has never relied on blowing people away so he might be a decent fit at absolutely no risk. That’s the kind of risk J.P. likes to take. In reality he’s no more removed from good production as Pavano (he’s just had much more serious medical issues), and he was better for longer before his injuries.

Rincewind: I like Moyer because he is one of the few guys left that are older than me.....gotta keep them around. I am sort of giving into the idea the payroll isn’t going to be going up at all. The Canadian dollar is way down and likely will stay down for this year, but then Rogers is in a pretty good spot to ride out the financial storm and their sports channels can only be helped by a strong baseball team.

Hugo: I also don't see payroll increasing, but we're going to have to sign at least one or two players to even keep it where it was last season, with Thomas and Burnett off the books. It's weird to me that we're willing to spend that money on Burnett but on no one else, and I have to think it's misdirection, though fans might well be the only ones being misdirected.

The biggest Jay news today was that J.P. Ricciardi told reporters that he was not averse to the idea of going 5 years on A.J. Burnett. That is potentially news because it's not clear that the Yankees or the Red Sox are willing to go to 5 years.  Ricciardi stressed that no offer has been made yet but said that he wasn't put off by the idea of going 5 years.  

While it's very unlikely that the Jays retain Burnett, you've got to hand it to Ricciardi.  Knowing that the Yankees and the Red Sox are bidding against each other already, why not intimate that the Jays are willing to go 5 years on Burnett, thereby driving up the price for two of their main competitors?  Even the Yankees and Sox don't have bottomless coffers, and there's a significant risk to taking on any pitcher, including A.J., for a long-term deal. 

Of course, if you take JP at his word, it makes no sense.  First of all, is it really a good idea to give A.J. 5 more years?  (Although I have to admit I'm somewhat tempted by the idea of going 5 and giving A.J. another opt-out after two years).  That's a huge risk for a team like the Jays to be taking on. And why would the Jays keep getting deeper and deeper into A.J. while simultaneously swearing off all other free agents on the market?  Who does business this way? 

Someone driving up the price on the marquis free agents before the December meetings, getting his competitors to spend as much money as possible.  Someone who is planning on waiting out the winters and then signing a bat and an arm after the new year, players who have lost their leverage.  The Jays might not end up with the best players this way, but this is how JP likes to do business.  He's like Ma Hugo at Old Navy, forever looking for a deal. 

By the way, today's post comes from (what I submit is) one of the great songs out of Canada, "Anthem for a Seventeen Year Old Girl" by Broken Social Scene.  I just thought the Talking Heads album cover fit the post.

Rincewind:  So who should bat leadoff?

Hugo:  Hmmm.  With the Jays’ current personnel, no one is really suited for the leadoff role.  Early in his career, Aaron Hill showed some glimpses of possibly developing towards the role (he OBPed .342 over about 2/3 of a season as a 23-year old, which is quite a good sign for such a young middle infielder in his first taste of major-league ball, and boosted that to .349 the following season), but his more recent performance and both his and the team’s statements suggest that he’s not the man for the job right now.  Conversely, Marco Scutaro has been lousy at getting on base throughout his career -- he did a halfway respectable job of it last season (.341), but not good enough to lead off for a good team.  Alexis Rios and Vernon Wells have batted leadoff in the past, but neither one is particularly adept at reaching base either.  Rios did steal 32 bases (75% success rate) last season, but unless he significantly improves his OBP from last season (.337), that won’t really do.  Rios and Wells are needed to drive in runs anyway.   

The best Jays at reaching base are Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen.  Neither one has base-stealing speed, but Rolen reached base at a .370 clip against lefties, while Overbay did so at an even better .385 rate against righties.  If no one is added from outside the organization, I would give very strong consideration to platooning those two at the leadoff position, which could result in as much as a .380 OBP from the leadoff spot based on their performance and splits from 2008 (and as you know, neither one had a career year or anything).  That would go a long way to the Jays scoring more runs in 2009. 

Of course, if the Jays get Furcal, it’s a moot point – he’s the leadoff man, with the speed, the switch-hitting, and a .352 lifetime OBP.  But I would bat Rolverbay (awesome!) in the 2-hole. 

Rincewind:  Rolverbay? Sounds like a bad rock band. “Direct from Cincinnati, to sing you their big hit, it’s Roverbay”. That would be my suggestion too (knew I should have answered this one first), they both get on base so well. But I would bet you dollars to donuts that Cito wouldn’t do it. I was so hoping you’d suggest Rios so we could argue. In the early 80’s the Angels had a big, slow LF/DH Brian Downing that looked like a power guy and he would hit 15 to 25 homers a year, but he would also take 70 to 100 walks a year and they used him as a leadoff man, on the theory that the power hitters hit behind him so why waste a base stealer in front of guys that are going to pound the ball anyway. I don’t think Cito would think that far outside the box though.

The good part to me is that Overbay wouldn’t feel force to try to hit for power, I don’t think that is his strength. I think he is better off to be allowed to work the count and not have to swing for the fences. Putting him in the middle of the order and expecting he to drive in 100 runs is not going to work. If he leads off, then hitting 15 to 20 home runs is a bonus.

I did like Inglett batting at the top of the order but since he is unlikely to have a role on the team next season. Would you be strongly against Inglett playing DH if we don’t sign someone? Furcal would be a great pickup, especially because he would keep Scoot out of the leadoff spot.

Hugo:  Haha sorry for stealing your thunder there, but I am glad to hear we agree.  Inglett was good at the top of the order against righties, but I don’t like him in the DH role on an everyday basis. I think he’ll get his at-bats, since he will be backing up a lot of positions and injuries will be inevitable.   He might be a better leftfielder than Lind anyway, so it’d likely be Lind at DH and Inglett in leftfield. 

Rincewind:  My worry is, no way does Cito have Overbay/Rolen leadoff. So without Inglett having a spot in the lineup, I’m expecting that we will be treated to Scoot as a leadoff man. If the Jays were to pick up Hardy or Greene I have no idea who Cito would use. We will have to come back to this question closer to the start of the season.

This story in today's Globe and Mail combines everything I love in a story:  Female Athletes, Japanese Baseball, and Knuckleballers. 

Eri Yoshida, a 16-year old young woman and high school student in Japan has been drafted to play for the Kobe 9 Cruise, a professional baseball team in Kobe, Japan that is part of a new, 4-team league in Western Japan.  Of course it is a low-level professional league, but Eri, who is all of 155 centimetres (5 feet) tall and 52 kg (114 pounds), not to mention just 16, will be the first woman to play professional baseball in Japan (alongside the men, that is - Japan, like the U.S., briefly had a professional woman's league post WWII).

Yoshida throws a knuckleball from a sidearm arm slot and her manager, Yoshihiro Nakata, describes the pitch as having good down and away movement.  Eri grew up playing baseball with her older brother and has always played on all-male teams.  She says she was inspired to throw the knuckler after seeing a video of Tim Wakefield and wants to follow in his footsteps.  Wakefield, for his part, was very gracious about it and also had kind words for the knucklers he grew up watching, including, of course, our old friend Tom Candiotti.

Congratulations to Eri Yoshida and best of luck with the 9 Cruise and in her future career!  And if you'll excuse me, I have to go teach my 21 month-old the knuckleball grip so that she can be the first woman in american pro baseball...

Hmmm.  So J.P. Ricciardi is at it again.  The master of excuses, misdirection, and lowered expectations has kindly informed the baseball world that A.J. Burnett is the Jays' one and only free agent target, and that if A.J. goes elsewhere:

"I don't think there's anybody else out there that, for what you'd probably have to get involved with from a money standpoint, that we would feel comfortable getting involved with. I think we'd probably stay in-house."

Ricciardi also spent some time complaining about the economy and how it's affected the Jays' spending, nixing the many rumors that had linked the Jays with everyone from Rafael Furcal to Milton Bradley to Manny Ramirez to Derek Lowe. 

Let's face it:  A.J. is gone.  The Jays are not prepared to go 5/80, which looks like it will be what it takes.  But what I can't figure out is this - let's say that A.J. spurns the $54 million or however much the Jays were willing to use on him.  Why wouldn't they then think about the best other way to spend that money they're obviously willing to invest in the team? (hint: $11 million a year could likely pay for Bradley, and perhaps even Furcal).  Does Burnett offer some special value on the free agent market as compared to other free agents?  Hardly.  That's simply not the case, and I can't believe that Ricciardi would be content in what has to be his (last) last chance with the Jays to not only stand pat but substantially cut payroll from last season, not replacing several missing key pieces from last season or addressing the glaring weakness that sunk an otherwise excellent team.

Ricciardi mentioned trades, and it has been a practice for other GMs to empty out the farm system when their backs are against the wall and they need to win now, but JP has always been reluctant to trade his prospects (as Richard Griffin pointed out in today's Star), so I'm not sure that will happen.  I like JP's trade record, actually, but the Jays' major league roster and high minors talent, other than in the bullpen, is pretty thin to be dealing away their major league talent. 

The Jays are down significantly in payroll from last season, with no one due a big raise through arbitration.  They need a starter and a dh, at the very least, quite badly but they don't have extra major-leaguers to trade and they don't want to give away their few prize prospects.  It would seem that free agency is the perfect way for them to augment the roster, and yet JP is ruling it out? Furcal won't even cost draft picks (and Bradley is only a Type B), so they're especially good deals as they will truly only cost money.

No way - it has to be just another example of misdirection, and lowering expectations.  We heard it all last season, before J.P. dealt Glaus for Rolen in a bold challenge trade, and got us all hot-and-bothered by almost (or not depending on who your read) getting Lincecum for Rios.  We will see what happens, but lest we forget, this is the man who thinks says it's not a lie if he knows the truth.

The title pretty much says it all; according to the Houston Chronicle, the Astros are likely to trade Ty Wigginton in the next few weeks to cut payroll. 

It seems that Wigginton wouldn't necessarily command much in a trade, but I think he could be a useful and bargain pickup by the Jays.  The Astros aren't impressed by Wigginton's defense at third, but the Jays would only be using him there as a backup plan.  Wigginton would essentially be a better version of Jose Bautista, able to backup at 2nd and third and start at first base or leftfield against lefty pitchers, and offering the same power as Bautista, if not more, while maintaining a respectable on-base percentage (which Jose does not do).  Best of all, Wigginton absolutely mashed lefty pitching in 2008 to the tune of .340/.424/.631 and wasn't so bad against righties either, hitting .265/.322/.488 for a fine 126 OPS+ all told.  He has always pretty much trashed lefty pitching and he has a respectable lifetime .790 career OPS against righties and lefties.  Not the answer to our everyday DH spot, but a big upgrade over Jose Bautista (career .722 OPS and unmashing, though still very good, .885 OPS against lefties last season)  And unlike Baustista (from the limited amount we saw, at least), Wigginton can competently play first base, making him a better platoon partner for Overbay, whose line against lefties was horrendous .215/.285/.255 over 167 offense-sucking plate appearances. 

Even if Lind discovers and Overbay rediscovers his stroke against lefties and the infield stays totally healthy, we still might end up with a left-hand hitting DH.  All this is to say I wouldn't mind Ty becoming a Jay if the price were right.  Wigginton is arbitration-eligible this season and is likely to make between $4.5-5 million, a bit of a turnoff, but he had a good year last season and so we could net some nice picks in 2010 when he becomes a free agent, an added bonus.    Any thoughts? 

Rincewind:  So Should the Jays go into rebuilding mode?

Hugo:  Good question.  My answer is no.  The Jays third order wins, run differential (better than the Rays) and Pythagorean record all suggest that the Jays fielded an excellent team last season and the results just didn’t match the quality of the play.  That said, not all the starters are back and the offense was a real, not an imaginary, problem.  Getting more games from Rolen and Wells, the return of Aaron Hill, and replacing Brevin Stewie Mencherson in the outfield and Stairs/Thomas at DH will help the offense, but the Jays do not have good offensive talent in the high minors and so help from outside the organization is needed. 

Not many Jays have trade value, to be honest.  Most think of Wells’ contract as untradeable, but I actually think the Yankees might bite on it if the Jays didn’t expect too much back (I can’t remember if Wells has a no-trade clause, but he might likely waive it anyway). They are desperate in CF, Wells is a quality player, and the money won’t faze them.  I might look into that, move Rios to centerfield, and use the cash to sign another corner outfielder – I’ve always thought that the Jays aren’t getting full value by using Rios in right when he is capable of manning center, and Wells’ defense appears to be declining to the point where he will be a rightfielder soon anyway.  But that wouldn’t really be rebuilding, just freeing up money for the future.  I doubt the Jays do it anyway, at least now, though I would be surprised if Wells plays out his contract as a Jay. 

Ryan and Downs have some value, but Ryan’s salary means he might not fetch too much back.  Certainly no one in their right mind is going to give up an A position player or starter prospect for a $10 million closer, but Ryan plus might be enough to get J.J. Hardy to play SS, though alone he’d perhaps command someone like Khalil Greene.  Again, not rebuilding.

Really, the rebuilding question comes down to Halladay – he’s the only Jay who has the status, the quality, and the salary (and the right amount of time left on his deal) to get a real package of quality prospects back in return.  A Rangers fan on the site posted with a possible package that I think the Jays would have to entertain – SS Elvis Andrus, 1B/DH/3B Chris Davis, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and SPs Neftali Perez and Tommy Hunter.  But would the Rangers actually offer that?  I very much doubt it.

Rincewind:  Yeah I agree that basically they can’t go into rebuilding mode. First of all JP likely couldn’t survive a rebuild. This is his team, if he rebuilds he’s saying the he didn’t do the job right in the first place. And you are right the team’s numbers were better than their record, there was some bad luck involved and bad luck should balance out. Just a modest improvement and the reversal of some luck would put the Jays into the playoff race.

And to rebuild they would have to trade Wells and I don’t think he is tradable at that moment. I don’t think Rolen is tradable either, so we can’t do a full rebuilding and half measures aren’t of any value. Really we have to hope Vernon has a season that lives up to his contract and that Rolen finds the fountain of youth somehow. Actually at the end of last season it looked like Rolen had found his youth so….I’m hopeful.

Hugo:  You’re definitely right about JP.  I can’t think of a team that has given a GM a chance to start over from scratch, left him alone as he built the team he said would compete, and then allowed him to blow it up and start over without ever even sniffing the playoffs.  Terry Ryan had a tough time through several years as the Twins GM, but they were operating under tight financial constraints that JP hasn’t had.  No way he blows the team up.

Hi everyone.  When last we left off, your friendly hosts were discussing the high and low points of the 2008 season.  Now we delve into the offseason and what the Jays can and should do.  Without further adieu (and thanks to the Beatles "We Can Work It Out" for today's title):

Hugo:  What are the Jays’ biggest problem spots going into the offseason and in what order should they be addressed? 

Rincewind:  Starting pitcher and DH…..change my mind about the order of the two every few minutes. I’d prefer them to be found on the free agent market, rather not give up on any of our better prospects. Although if BJ Ryan could be traded to fill one of the holes, I wouldn’t complain.

Beyond that if a real upgrade at SS could be had without costing too much, I’d be happy.

Hugo:  I suppose I would try to fix DH spot first.  My reasoning is that the Jays have more depth at starting pitcher, even though there are more questions there.  Things might look very shaky at the beginning of the season, but as the season develops, options like Romero, McGowan, Cecil, Mills, and Ray may develop to fill the starting pitcher role, while DH is Snider and nothing, leaving the Jays absolutely no margin for error if one of Rios/Wells/Snider/Lind/Overbay go down, unless you want to see Inglett or Bautista in the outfield everyday (I don’t).  I also think the Jays’ solid defense and bullpen will take some of the pressure off the starting rotation, a luxury the Yankees, say, didn’t have with their young starting pitchers upon who they relied this season. 

After DH, I would go to starting pitcher, and then SS.  I’d love to upgrade catcher but I just don’t see it happening until Arencibia is ready to go. 

Rincewind:  Is there no chance Arencibia would be ready to go at the start of the season? Boy he looks good and watching Barajas streak and slump all season was not fun. There are a lot of interesting older catchers available on the free agent list that might be cheap.

The nice part about the DH problem is that there is a handful of free agents that could fill the role, though if a team would give us a DH for Ryan that would leave us with money for a starter. I wonder if the Rangers would go for Ryan for Blalock?

Hugo:  That’s an interesting deal.  Blalock would be a very nice fit on the team, and he’s only signed to the one year at a reasonable cost.  As for the catcher spot, I think Arencibia could probably be about as good as Barajas over the full season, maybe better, but he still needs work on his plate discipline and the majors really isn’t a good place for a young catcher to work on that skill.  I’m really hoping he makes it to the majors this season, but because he’s truly ready, not because we have a sub .300 OBPing Barajas and an open wound at the catcher position. 

Rincewind:  Well, there are 16 old catchers, not one under 30, that have filed as free agents. I’m sure most of them would take a one year contract or one and an option year. Any interest in Henry Blanco as a back up? Ivan Rodriguez? David Ross? Javier Valentin? Varitek? Or are we just as well off to keep Thigpen in the role for now?

We didn’t talk about who we would like to pick up to fill out the starting rotation. I’m taking it for granted that AJ won’t be back. At the moment I think the locks are Doc, Litsch and Purcey. I am hoping Janssen is totally healthy and could fill a spot. I could really see him being the comeback player of the year, if, of course, Cito doesn’t blow his arm out again.

I’d love to see the Jays go after Derek Lowe or Randy Johnson. Lowe, with our infield defense could be a terrific fit and if McGowan comes back healthy, Lowe would be a great trading piece. Johnson? Well I just like the guy and he likely would be willing to take a one year contract, just to get to that 300th win. Yeah, I know, might be wishful thinking in both cases.

Hugo:  Plenty of time to get into specifics as the offseason progresses, but I'm not sure Ranjo would be willing to sign here.  He's said he only wants to sign with a contender or he'll retire, and while I'm sure he's bs-ing about that, if he prefers a contender he'll surely be able to find one.  Thought it breaks my heart to say so, I'm not sure we qualify in that regard, at least, in the minds of most free agents. 

Lowe, although old, has been very durable and his groundball numbers are a great fit, so we'll have to see where the offseason goes.  My guess is that he doesn't sign until the bigger names are off the market. 

Though this violates the order I put out just before (DH-starter-SS), I'd love to see the Jays swoop in and get Hardy now.  Hardy is well above-average both offensively and defensively and will be just 26 next season.  I'd try to get him before Furcal and Cabrera sign and other teams get in on him.  Hardy is good enough to justify including Cecil, I think, though I'd hope it wouldn't take that.

Hugo:  Well, that's that for now.  Next time we will talk about whether the Jays should go into rebuilding mode and, later on, who should bat leadoff for our azure-clad heroes!