According to the AP, Willie Randolph has been fired as the manager of the New York Mets.  Jerry Manuel will be taking the reigns as interim manager.  The Mets are currently 33-35, seven games back of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Randolph's tenure in New York began in 2005. He was instrumental in turning around the Mets which were under .500 from 2001-2004.  His tenure had an overall record of 301-253.  His best season was 2006 when the Mets won 97 games and came within one game of the World Series.

After trading for Santana, expectations for Randolph were very high to begin the season, and sub-.500 baseball ten weeks into the season was unacceptable.

Well, my beloved Blues are facing the toughest four days in their history as they welcome the much hated Red Devils to Stamford Bridge for what could be the most important match of this EPL season.  Then in merely four days they face off against Liverpool for a chance to possibly face Manchester United again in the UEFA Cup Finals.  Before worrying about the Champions League though, they have to win today!  This should definitely be an interesting match to watch with Ronaldo on the bench for Man. Utd. and Lampard still recovering from the tragic loss of his mother a few days ago.

As a side note, does anyone know what station this is on in Dallas (if any) as I'm trying to watch it via Slingbox and can't find it yet.

I was thinking about payroll versus performance, and the place of the Rangers over the past ten years.  For instance, the Rangers have the 9th lowest payroll in baseball (just over 68 million) and currently the worst record.  Realistically, that payroll will be considerably lower next season.

Realistically, much of this payroll could be gone next season.  For instance:

1.  Vicente Padilla - If he continues to pitch at an average to above average value, then there is little question that he will be traded before the deadline.  An average to above average pitcher for 12 million next season and with an option for 12 million in 2010 is a steal.  But, if the Rangers do not consider themselves to be in the race at the deadline and think that next season will also be a rebuilding year, then this would be the time to trade Padilla for the best package.

(68 million - 11 million = 57 million)

2.  Hank Blalock - I have little doubt that Blalock will be traded at the deadline if he hits and doesn't get hurt.  His contract is extremely cheap and his 6.2 million option for next season is a steal.

(57 million - 6 million = 51 million)

3.  Milton Bradley - Hopefully he'll be traded, but regardless he's gone next season and it's questionable whether the Rangers will refill his position through free agency.

(51 million - 5.25 million = 45.75 million)

If only the Rangers move these three players at the deadline, then suddenly the payroll has dropped to under 46 million dollars, and therefore would only be higher than two other teams, the Rays (44 million) and the Marlins (22 million).

Now, whenever you consider the very real possibility that this team could trade Kevin Millwood (if he continues to pitch at this level he will get plenty of offers), Frank Catalanotto, Joaquin Benoit, Marlon Byrd, Gerald Laird, etc. then this team's payroll could easily approach 30 million (probably 45 or million when pro-rated), and even with standard pay increases and the additional of second and third tier free agents, the team's payroll could still be around the 45 million mark next season. 

For a team that has a Forbes estimated value of $412 million, that's somewhat low.  Considering that the team had an estimated revenue of 172 million, and an operating income of 17.2 million, you have to wonder where the money went (I know, I know, it's currently being spent in Liverpool).

So how has payroll related to MLB standing for the Rangers this decade (a period over which they have been rather terrible)?

2000 - 61 million (10th in MLB) / 71-91 (12th in AL) / Attendance - 5th in AL
2001 - 88.5 million (7th in MLB) / 73-89 (10th in AL) / Attendance - 5th in AL
2002 - 105.3 million (3rd in MLB) / 78-84 (10th in AL) / Attendance - 6th in AL
2003 - 104.5 million (4th in MLB) / 71-91 (10th in AL) / Attendance - 7th in AL
2004 - 54.8 million (17th in MLB) / 89-73 (6th in AL) / Attendance - 6th in AL
2005 - 55.8 million (21st in MLB) / 79-83 (9th in AL) / Attendance - 6th in AL
2006 - 68.2 million (18th in MLB) / 80-82 (9th in AL) / Attendance - 7th in AL
2007 - 68.3 million (21st in MLB) / 75-87 (9th in AL) / Attendance - 8th in AL

What sticks out in these numbers?  First, despite payroll the team has consistently been around 9th or 10th overall in the AL.  Clearly though, attendance has slowly declined (2.3 million in 2007 as compared to over 2.6 million in 2000).  So far this season, the Rangers attendance has been 11th (out of 14) in the AL, and unless the team does something miraculous over the next few months you wouldn't expect those numbers to rise.

I think it's very possible that this team could not only be among the bottom three payrolls in the American league next season, but that they could also be among the bottom three in attendance.  Here's to 2011, right?

This upcoming Saturday is my birthday.  I'm only telling you this because my wife and her side of our family gave me one of the best birthday presents I've ever received.  For my birthday I was able to fly to Beijing from our hometown of Kunming and watch the Dodgers and the Padres spring training game.  As many of you know, it was the first major league series to be played in China.  

It's almost baseball season and being a passionate baseball fan living over here can be somewhat difficult.  I am able to watch the regular season games online either through MLB TV or through the use of a Slingbox that my parents have setup back in Plano.  Our internet connection can barely handle it, as all of China (330 million internet users) are required to use the same ADSL lines for broadband service, and all of these ADSL lines have to go through the filters in Beijing.  Once people start waking up and checking their e-mails nationwide, the speeds online drop dramatically.  So by the time the games get going I'm usually just hearing broken audio, with a new image every fifteen seconds or so.  The other problem is that since we are thirteen hours ahead of Dallas, most games start around 8AM.  That obviously conflicts with regular daytime work and school hours.  When the opportunity arose to go see a real baseball game, free of internet problems or school conflicts, I was ecstatic.

The above picture is obviously my ticket to the game.  All of the seats from third base to first base were at this price or above.  The price of 480 yuan translates to $67.72.  That price is far too expensive for most Chinese who are unfamiliar with baseball, yet there is a rich class in Beijing, and many of them were at the game.  Fortunately, Major League Baseball made the outfield tickets extremely affordable (around $5), but these tickets sold out long before the games began.

The above picture is Wukesong stadium, which is one of the two olympic baseball stadiums built for this summer.  They finished construction literally just last week.

I got to the game a few hours early to catch batting practice and see if I could get an autograph or two.  Neither went quite as planned.  The game started at 1PM, but they didn't allow fans into the stadium until around 11:45AM.  So I had plenty of time to wait outside before the game began chatting with people and watching the general atmosphere before one of China's very first professional baseball games.

As I talked to people, some had been to children's baseball games before, but had never seen a live adult game.  In Beijing, you can get satellite television that includes ESPN Asia, so some of the people had watched MLB games on TV.  Overall, people were very excited and very interested about what was going to happen.

These two pictures are the kind of thing that makes me love baseball.  While we waited outside for them to let us in, people started playing catch.  First, it was the two Chinese men you see in the top picture, and then some others (including this American dad and his son) started playing.

Finally at 11:30AM they let us line up, and at 11:45AM they opened the doors.  Maybe things have changed in the states since I've lived in China, but the security for this game seemed much higher.  We had to x-ray all of our belongings, go through a metal detector and then have someone run a wand over us to make sure we didn't bring anything into the park.  Fortunately, it moved rather quickly, and since I was the third person in my line I wasn't delayed much.

Whenever I first went into the park I immediately went to buy a hot dog.  I had heard on the news the night before that they had real American hot dogs at the game, so I was excited that they had even brought the food of the game to China.  Well, I wasn't really impressed, haha.  The food was all brought in from a local American restaurant called "Tim's Texas Barbecue."  If I ever met Tim I would politely ask him to remove Texas from his name because his food is an embarrassment to those of us who know Texas barbecue.

As you can see, my hot dog was put in a sliced loaf of french bread.  Hot dogs buns have to be imported so I'm not against this cheaper form of bun.  The dog was a chicken dog, and it already had relish and mustard on it when I bought it.  All of that would have been okay if it weren't for the last problem...the "hot" dog was ice cold.  When I asked if they had a microwave or anything to heat it up they said no.  Anyways, it was still kind of cool to be sitting in Beijing, China eating a "hot" dog at an MLB game.

Do you see the difference in the number of media members in these two pictures?  What's the difference?  The reason for the increase in media was that the Dodgers were getting ready to come out of the dugout in the second picture.  I would not be exaggerating to say that nine out of every ten Asian fans that I met at the game were pulling for the Dodgers.  Why?  Because the Dodgers have three Asian players and the Padres have none.  This is a culture that gets behind it's players like nowhere else.  I was told that in Taiwan baseball has become the most popular sport simply because of Chui Long Hu and Chien Ming Wang.  I can attest that one star player has made basketball the biggest sport in China and I believe a baseball star from the mainland could do the same.

Another thing that I quickly found out was that the players wanted to sign autographs and the fans wanted to get autographs, but that the Chinese government did not want to allow what they saw as "crazy fans" getting close to the players.  Clearly this was a part of the foreigner culture that the Chinese were not familiar with.  So since I wasn't able to get any autographs I decided to spend my time finding a way to get onto the field.

Well, I was able to get onto the warning track in centerfield.  I simply walked past one distracted guard outside the back of the stadium and then walked up to the wall where there were three more guards making sure nobody entered the field.  I simply started talking to them in Chinese and they were so impressed that I lived in China and could speak some Chinese that they let me onto the field for a few shots before making me go back to my seat.

As I went back to my seat I ran into these girls.  They were the game's cheerleaders.  The way I heard the story is that when the planners for the game arrived in China they were asked about where to put the cheerleaders.  The Chinese planners were shocked to hear that American baseball doesn't have cheerleaders so they provided some to cheer between innings occasionally and to help sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame."  Here's a picture of that strangely surreal scene.

Once I got back to my seat it was about time for the opening lineups and national anthems.  

The starting lineups were cool to me because they were translated into the two languages.  It was also somewhat cool to see all of the former Rangers such as Adrian Gonzalez.

The opening ceremonies were very cool.  Bud Selig made his first speech in years where nobody booed.  It was translated into Chinese and was just as generic in Chinese as in English.  The cool part to me was that they had a VJ from MTV Asia leading the opening ceremonies, and Jet Li threw out the first pitch as you can see in the picture below.

Once the game started I sat back and just enjoyed the game with only a few minor distractions.  The atmosphere during the game was great as the Chinese fans were really into it.  Many were not familiar with the game at all, so they would cheer for players and not for the game itself.  Chui-Long Hu was a star despite not being from the mainland of China.  Anything he did received cheers and he got a standing ovation in his last at bat.

There was one thing that happened during a few points in the game that was somewhat comical to me, but also very cool.  The VJ from MTV Asia would come back out between innings and the first time she asked in Chinese "Who's familiar with the rules of baseball?"  The stands were silent.  So she said, "Then let's teach you how to play!"  People started cheering loudly.  MLB has a set of short video clips to help teach the game that they played, and a game of selecting the right answer.  Here's an example below.

It was comical to those of us who know the game because the answers were so simple.  Still, you would hear large crowds cheering for the other options.  China still has a long way to go in becoming a baseball country.  If you know the history of baseball in China, you know that it was hugely popular in the thirties and forties but was outlawed during the Cultural Revolution.  I could definitely see from the little league players that were at the game and from the general excitement that it is going to make a comeback.

The rest of the game was pretty much the same as in America, except for a few poor attempts at contextualizing the game by Major League Baseball such as the "Pagoda Shuffle" instead of the "Pick the Hat" game.  I absolutely loved being there and simply watching baseball.  To tell you the truth, there were some moments when I began tearing up thinking about being able to watch baseball in Beijing.  It was definitely one of the best things I've ever been able to do.

I sat next to a couple of A's fans and was excited that they were also very passionate fans.  They live in Taiwan and were in town just for the game.  They were talking about how popular the game is there, and how it's all because of the Taiwanese players in the majors.  That made me excited to think that this game that I love so passionately could someday be popular in mainland China as well.

If you would like to see some more pictures from the day, here is my flickr site.

"Spring Training."  Those two words when combined get me about as excited as any other words in the English vocabulary. Hope springs eternal.  We all believe that our team has a "chance" of making the playoffs and we all think that if everything falls into place and there's a little bit of magic mixed in, this just might end up being the Rangers best season ever.

Unfortunately, this excitement blinds our minds and we start to seeing potential and possibility instead of concrete reality.  The early responses to Julio Borbon and Franklyn German are fine examples of this type of spring training blindness.

Let's begin by looking at Julio Borbon.  There's no doubt that Julio Borbon is a good athlete.  He's very quick and was whenever he played at the university that I most closely follow and support, Tennessee.  He's got a 1.278 OPS at this point in spring training, with a home run, and seven RBIs.  That's awesome, in fact, that's about as awesome as you can be in nine at bats.  But that's what we have to remember.  It's only nine at bats.  Borbon has the speed and athleticism to be a very good defensive center fielder.  But let's not think that nine spring training at bats will somehow trump his college career.

Here's another number from Borbon that you might not know, but is slightly larger than his nine spring training at bats.  The number is 37.  That's his total number of walks in three complete seasons at Tennessee.  When averaged against his plate appearances, he would have the lowest walk rate of anyone on the Rangers in 2007, and that was against college pitching.  His percentage actually declined in his final year of college.  That's not good.  Surprisingly, one of his ten plate appearances in spring training was a walk.  That one walk does not trump his college career.

So whenever I read esteemed writers like Sullivan say, "The Rangers have a definite and legitimate prospect in centerfield," I'm not going to disagree, but I'm going to chime in and say, "let's hold those horses."  Borbon, even if he has an amazing year in A ball this year and AA ball next season, won't see the major leagues until September 2010.  So whereas, he is a "prospect" at this point, I'm not so convinced by nine spring training events that I'm willing to call him a legitimate centerfield prospect at this point.  After all, the B game pitchers he is facing are most likely the same level as the pitchers he will face in A and AA ball during the next two seasons.  Let's see a little more before making such confident pronouncements.

Another fine example of spring training blindness is Franklyn German.  Sullivan calls him "a big hit in camp so far."  Schiller thinks "he can make the team...due to his play," and MLB.com gave him a whole article dedicated to how he has been "impressive" thus far.  With all of the praise thus far, he must have done something really amazing right?  Well, yeah...at least as amazing as you can be in only three innings.  

German is now 28 years old.  He first pitched in the minors ten years ago.  He pitched in his first major league game six years ago.  The scouting report on German has changed little during the last ten years.  He's got some major heat, but he can't control it.  When he cranks up to 98mph, there is no telling where the ball will end up.  That's why in AAA for the Redhawks last year he had a walk rate of 7.02.  That's really high.  Of course, his K rate was really high as well (10.92).  He hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006, and then only for 12 innings.  He has one successful season in the majors, which came in 2005, as a reliever for the Tigers.  He put up a 3.66 ERA in 59 IP.  He also had a much reduced K rate that season (5.80), with a walk rate just behind it (5.19).  That would be fine, but let's not forget that came three years ago in Comerica, which is clearly a pitchers park.

I'm just as excited about everyone else that baseball season is quickly approaching.  I personally can't wait to wake up every morning, log into Slingplayer and watch the games.  But let's not jump the gun and think these guys who have been playing against "B" game players, many of whom are still trying to get into playing shape, are future stars.  German, may be able to fill a hole when needed, but he's no longer the prospect that he was in 2002, and most likely won't make the team.  Borbon has a lot of questions to still be answered, and needs to show that he can play A ball before we start talking about him as a "legitimate" centerfield prospect.

Hehe, I just read this at Yahoo.  Enjoy!
Jeter continues to set the bar for consistency.

"If Jeter is weary of the effort after these years, it is not reflected in his demeanor, nor in his game. He toiled all winter on expanding his range at shortstop and had barely wiped the sweat from his forehead when a handful of techies at Penn announced he was the worst defensive shortstop in baseball.

Maybe it's true, but I doubt it. I do know that if there was a roller to the left of the mound, I'd want Jeter coming in from shortstop. If there was a flare dying fast in left field, I'd want Jeter going out from shortstop. And if there was a four-hopper straight at the shortstop to end a game I had to win, I'd want Jeter and his alleged cement-shoed range standing right there."

Forgive me if this has been mentioned somewhere already and if it has the moderators have full authority and permission to delete the diary.

Compared to most baseball sites, LSB's core visitors have a large percentage of statheads.  I know this because I'm among this group, particularly enjoying historical analysis of the great game.

My fascination with statistics began in the mid-1990s when I randomly picked up Bill James' Historical Baseball Abstract at the Half-Price Books at Parker and Independence in Plano.  I was in high school and didn't understand half of what he was talking about, but was absolutely fascinated with this different perspective towards the game.

I know that many of you also became fascinated with statistical analysis because of the fine work of Bill James from the late 70s until today.  As such, I was excited to read that he started a website full of statty goodness and lots of intriguing charts.  Furthermore, it's only $3 a month.  So, if you have some extra change laying around and you've already subscribed to Baseball Prospectus, I would highly suggest subscribing to Bill James' site.

Here's the link:  Bill James Online

Most people were probably so sick of this topic that they didn't even click on this diary.  I understand that and feel the same way to a point.  Personally though, I'm looking for the truth in regards to PEDs and their effects and will weigh that information before I start casting stones at the current crop of accused players.  Many of these players have inspired me for many years, and it honestly hurts to see them cast before the angry mob without at least giving them a fair trial.

I think some others feel this same way and as such, some sites are trying to get at the answers to what "real" effects PEDs have on athletes and their performance.  Sabernomics and Will Carroll have both posted interesting research by medical professionals that seems to contradict the assumptions being spewed out as fact by prominent media outlets.

Eric Walker, who most of you Sabermetricians already know, has set up a very informative site called "Steroids and Baseball."  I think it is a wonderful starting point for those who are really interested at getting to the heart of this issue, providing medical information and some fine statistical analysis.  Check it out.

There seems to be a sentiment that John Daniels is addressing the rebuilding of this team in the wrong way.  Some of the common statements here and elsewhere by Rangers fans are:

1.  "Why would you trade a stud young pitcher for an injury prone centerfielder?"
2.  "Why would he go out and sign an injury prone headcase to play the corner outfield spots?"
3.  "This team is most likely the worst that the Rangers have aseembled since 2000."

To evaluate what Daniels has been doing this offseason, we need to look at where the Rangers ended last year.  Despite a strong second half, the team still was rather miserable both offensively and defensively.

Only two teams in the AL had a worse OBP as a team, and they were right in the middle of the pack in SLG.  Only four teams in the AL had a worse batting average.  The Rangers had a below average OPS in comparison to both the AL and all of MLB.  Only one team had more strikeouts, and only three teams took fewer walks.

Yeah, the Rangers hit 56 more home runs than the Angels, and surprisingly were able to score a good number of runs (7th overall).  but the fact of the matter is that the offense was still rather terrible.  So in what areas was the offense worst?

1.  OBP - Only two teams were worse.
   
2.  BA - Only four teams were worse.

In terms of pitching, the Rangers were pretty bad as well.  There were only three teams with a worse ERA than the Rangers.  The Rangers pitchers were right in the middle of the pack in hits allowed, but what killed them was the fact that they were last in the league in strikeouts and second in walks allowed.  Since ERA is a result of a number of factors, what areas would Daniels need to address to help improve pitching?

1.  Pitchers with better K/BB ratios
   
2.  Team defense (particularly up the middle)

So how has Daniels addressed these four highly critical areas in terms of preparing this team for 2008, but ultimately for 2009 and beyond?  Let's look at each one individually.

Team OBP
The worst positions in terms of OBP last year were left field, right field, catcher and third base.  After Teixeira was traded, the first base position struggled in terms of OBP as well.

How has Daniels addressed this problem?

1.  He signed Bradley to play one of the corners.  He has a career .358 OBP and had a .402 OBP last season.  That's a far upgrade over the .323 and .332 OBPs that the corners put up for the Rangers last year.
2.  Obviously, Daniels didn't need to address third base since Blalock is healthy, and when he played last year he had a .358 OBP.  This spot of the lineup is simply fixed by Blalock being healthy.  There's not much Daniels can do about this position.
3.  At catcher, Daniels has committed to having Salty as the regular.  Laird had a .278 OBP last year, and Salty had a .310 OBP.  So that's a slight upgrade, but as we all know Salty has potential to improve on that immensely.  After all, he had a career minor league .370 OBP.
4.  At centerfield, the Rangers put up a decent .343 OBP, but the .368 that Hamilton put up last season is an upgrade.  It's also a huge upgrade in terms of SLG (.554 to .423).
5.  At first base, which was rather bad after Teixeira left, the Rangers are going from Wilkerson (.319 OBP), Botts (.326) and Cat (.328 as a 1b) to Chris Shelton (.348 career / .340 in 2006) and a slight upgrade in Broussard (.330 last year).
6.  The trade for Shelton and signing of Broussard also free up Cat to hit DH.  He had a .363 OBP in the second half of last season compared to the .311 OBP that the Rangers got from Sosa for much of the year.  That is another significant upgrade in my opinion.

Overall I'd give Daniels an A+ in this regard

Team BA
Team batting average should be improved from the reasons mentioned above, but here are some other things to note.

1.  Among hitters with at least 300 ABs, the Rangers worst batting averages belonged to Laird, who is now a backup, and to Vazquez (.230), who shouldn't play much next season at all, and then to Wilkerson (.234), Cruz (.235) and Sosa (.252), who are all no longer with the team.  The next worst hitter was Cat who hit .260 overall.  Cat did hit .288 in the second half though, which bodes well.
2.  The Rangers have brought in Broussard (.275 last year), Shelton (.273 in 2006), Bradley (.306 last year) and Hamilton (.292 last year).

Overall I'd give Daniels an A- in terms of addressing this need.  It's not an A or A+ simply because I don't understand the Broussard signing.

K/BB ratio
Daniels has done the least in addressing this need.  The Rangers still have Millwood who had the best K/BB ratio both last year and in 2006.  That's despite leading the team in BB/9 last season.  Overall, the Rangers have much of the same rotation and bullpen coming back, and their losses are primarily Volquez, Wright and Otsuka.  

Otsuka of course had serious arm problems, but had a 1/1 K/BB ratio before the injury.  In 2006, his K/BB ratio was stellar, but there were too many medical issues for the Rangers to give him a contract.

Wright gave up a ton of BBs.  He had "electric stuff" according to scouts, but was highly inconsistent last season (as he has been through his whole career).

And then there is Volquez, and this is the one that hurts.  Volquez can definitely strike guys out when he's on.  But he can also walk a lot of batters.  He walked just under 4 batters per 9 IP last year in the minors, despite having an outstanding season.  I love Volquez, and think he will end up being a good major leaguer eventually, but also know that losing him does not drastically effect the 2008 Rangers K/BB ratio.

The Rangers brought in Kaz Fukumori, who is a huge question mark, but projects to a mediocre to below average major league reliever and should have little impact on the bullpen.

Like I said before, Daniels has done the least in this area, but ultimately there aren't that many other options.  A Colon/Jennings/Silva type is only slightly better than allowing Mendoza, Murray, Gallaraga, etc. time in the majors...especially when considering their cost.  

Overall I'd give Daniels a C- in this regard.  He didn't improve the team any, but didn't hurt them much either.  Still, the loss of Volquez hurts.

Team Defense
People tend to undervalue the impact that team defense has on pitching.  The pitchers on this team suffered a great deal from poor defense last season, and particularly in the outfield.

If Bradley is healthy and plays a corner spot, then he is a well above average defender.  Hamilton is an above average defensive centerfielder.  Those two spots alone should help upgrade the team defense drastically.

Overall I'd give Daniels an A in this regard.

So despite all of the complaining about how Daniels isn't addressing the team's needs this offseason and how he's making stupid decisions, the fact of the matter is that he is addressing needs and he is making this team better.  Offensively he has made some very good improvements in key stats (i.e. OBP and OPS), and defensively he has upgraded the corner outfield and centerfield rather drastically, which is a key defensive position.

I'd give him an A so far for the offseason, let me know what you'd give him and tell me why in the comments.

Poll

How would you rate Daniels offseason?

• A
• B
• C
• D
• F

  83 votes | Results

Wow.  This is pretty negative...but it's not that any of us thought this was a great signing anyways though.

"Texas Rangers - Signed P Kazuo Fukumori to a 2-year contract.

It's official: Jon Daniels thinks that all Japanese people look alike - having a Japanese last name doesn't make you Matsuzaka or Sasaki or Kuroda. Kinda like when Steve Phillips got all excited over Tsuyoshi Shinjo for no reason in particular. Fukomori's had an up-and-down career and arm problems and there's really no reason to sign him for a 2-year deal over signing any random AAA reliever to a minor-league deal. ZiPS has him with a 5.10ish ERA - sorry, it just crashed on me. Think Kevin Gryboski."