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The Transaction Oracle on Drew & Lugo

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The Oracle likes the BoSox's signing of J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo...

Szymborski also has a little self-debate about the wisdom of plugging Drew into centerfield, given his fragile nature and injury history, but says it is one of the best big signings of the offseason.

I disagree, of course...but what is particularly interesting to me is this passage:

ZiPS is really sour on Drew for some reason - probably the decline in home runs.

ZiPS is Szymborski's projection system, and it is interesting to me that both it and Nate Silver's PECOTA system foresee problems for Drew in 2007. Silver goes into more detail about the power problems, and also emphasizes that the change from the N.L. to the A.L. will likely hurt Drew's production...

Combine this with the injury problems, and I'm becoming more and more sold on the notion that the Rangers were smart to stay away from him...