Nate Silver has a chat session up over at Baseball Prospectus, and of particular note is a question he answers on Hank Blalock, which BP's PECOTA system has a surprisingly good forecast on:
Adam J. Morris (Houston, Texas): I did a double-take when I first saw Hank Blalock's PECOTA projections...weighted mean EQA of .290 or so the next few years, on the heels of a .262 EQA season in 2005? Particularly since he's never had a .290 EQA before? What are your thoughts on this? Any explanation as to why PECOTA expects Blalock to be so much better in 2006?
Nate Silver: The short answer is that I think people are reading way too much into that 2005. For an older player, a big one year decline can often be the sign of a guy who has lost his game, but that's very rarely the case for a young player. PECOTA still sees a guy who posted 285 EqAs as a 22- and 23-year old major leaguer.
Some other good stuff over there, as well...check it out...