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Derrek Lee signs contract extension

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Derrek Lee has (finally) signed a five year, $65 million contract extension...

Or at least, it is being reported as a five year, $65 million contract extension. But the deal runs from 2006-2010, and Lee was already under contract for $8 million for 2006.

So in reality, this would seem to be a four year, $57 million contract extension.

$14.25 million per year for Derrek Lee, for his age 31-34 seasons, seems like foolishness, to me. The Cubs are basically betting that he'll replicate his breakout 2005 season the next several years, rather than reverting to his 2000-2004, .285-.305 EQA self. PECOTA pegs him at a .290-.305 EQA for the 2007-2010 seasons, which seems reasonable to me.

If he posts a couple more huge seasons, comparable to Lee's .345 EQA last season, then the contract is reasonable and possibly even a bargain for the Cubs. But I don't see much reason to believe that will be the case.