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The chances of a third rounder making it

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When John Hudgins was traded, one of the things that was talked about was how the Rangers were giving up on, or had blown, a third round pick...

It got me thinking, and I went back and looked...and the reality is, third rounders, more often than not, don't end up panning out.

Here's the 2003 third round:

1 68 TB Andrew Miller lhp Buchholz HS, Gainesville, Fla. FL
2 69 MIL Lou Palmisano c Broward (Fla.) CC FL
3 70 DET Tony Giarratano ss Tulane U. LA
4 71 SD Colt Morton c North Carolina State U. NC
5 72 KC Brian McFall 1b Chandler-Gilbert (Ariz.) JC AZ
6 73 CHC Jake Fox c U. of Michigan MI
7 74 BAL Chris Ray rhp College of William & Mary VA
8 75 PIT Steve Lerud c Galena HS, Reno NV
9 76 TEX John Hudgins rhp Stanford U. CA
10 77 COL Aaron Marsden lhp U. of Nebraska NE
11 78 CLE Ryan Garko c Stanford U. CA
12 79 ATL Jacob Stevens lhp Cape Coral (Fla.) HS FL
13 80 TOR Shaun Marcum rhp Southwest Missouri State U. MO
14 81 CIN Jose Ronda ss Gabriela Mistral HS, San Juan, P.R. PR
15 82 CWS Clint King of U. of Southern Mississippi MS
16 83 FLA Jonathan Fulton ss George Washington HS, Danville, Va. VA
17 84 BOS Beau Vaughan rhp Arizona State U. AZ
18 85 PHI Tim Moss 2b U. of Texas TX
19 86 SEA Ryan Feierabend lhp Midview HS, Grafton, Ohio OH
20 87 MON Kory Casto of U. of Portland OR
21 88 MIN Johnny Woodard 1b Cosumnes River (Calif.) JC CA
22 89 HOU Drew Stubbs of Atlanta (Texas) HS TX
23 90 ANA Sean Rodriguez ss Braddock HS, Miami FL
24 91 LA Cory Van Allen lhp Clements HS, Sugar Land, Texas TX
25 92 OAK Dustin Majewski of U. of Texas TX
26 93 SF Brian Buscher 3b U. of South Carolina SC
27 94 NYY Tim Battle of McIntosh HS, Peachtree City, Ga. GA
28 95 STL Dennis Dove rhp Georgia Southern U. GA
29 96 ARI Matt Chico lhp Palomar (Calif.) JC CA
30 97 ATL Matt Harrison lhp South Granville HS, Stem, N.C. NC

Miller and Stubbs, of course, didn't sign, and went in the first round this year. Matt Harrison also didn't sign.

Of the remaining players, Chris Ray has become a nice reliever, Marcum looks like he may be a nice reliever, and Garko looks like he may have some value as a first baseman.

I'm hard-pressed, though, to see any other third rounders who, three years later, are going to quicken the pulse.

Stepping back a little farther, we can look at the 2000 draft...it has been six years since then, and the 2000 draft has been compared to the 2006 draft in terms of quality:

  1. Marlins Rob Henkel, lhp UCLA
  2. Twins Colby Miller, rhp Weatherford (Okla.) HS
  3. Cubs Aaron Krawiec, lhp Villanova
  4. Royals Scott Walter, c Loyola Marymount
  5. Expos Grady Sizemore, of Cascade HS, Mill Creek, Wash.
  6. Cubs Nic Jackson, of Richmond
  7. Rockies Chris Buglovsky, rhp Coll. of New Jersey
  8. Tigers Exavier Logan, ss Copiah-Lincoln (Miss.) JC
  9. Padres Omar Falcon, c Southridge HS, Miami
  10. Angels Tommy Murphy, ss Florida Atlantic
  11. Brewers Dane Artman, lhp Westminster Academy, Fort Lauderdale
  12. White Sox Mike Morse, ss Nova HS, Fort Lauderdale
  13. Cardinals Chase Voshell, ss Wake Forest
  14. Orioles Richard Bartlett, rhp Kamiakin HS, Kennewick, Wash.
  15. Phillies Keith Bucktrot, rhp Claremore (Okla.) HS
  16. Orioles Tommy Arko, c Cooper HS, Abilene
  17. Dodgers Jeff Tibbs, rhp Davis HS, Farmington, Utah
  18. Blue Jays Morrin Davis, of Hillsborough HS, Tampa
  19. Pirates Chris Young, rhp Princeton
  20. Athletics Daylan Holt, of Texas A&M
  21. Giants Brion Treadway, rhp UNC Charlotte
  22. Red Sox Matt Cooper, 1b Ripley (Okla.) HS
  23. Reds David Gil, rhp Miami
  24. Rangers Chris Russ, lhp Towson
  25. Mets Josh Reynolds, rhp Central Missouri State
  26. Indians Sean Swedlow, c Sandinas (Calif.) HS
  27. Astros Anthony Pluta, rhp Las Vegas (Nev.) HS
  28. Yankees Jason Grove, of Washington State
  29. Diamondbacks Bill White, lhp Jacksonville (Ala.) State
  30. Braves Blaine Boyer, rhp Walton HS, Marietta, Ga.
Grady Sizemore is a great young player. Chris Young is a very good pitcher. After those two, the best player on this list is probably Mike Morse, a utility infielder who got busted for using steroids, or Tommy Murphy, who the Braves weren't able to sign.

Just a cautionary note...there are a lot more Chris Russes than Grady Sizemores, after the first round or two of the baseball draft...