I was thinking of going with the Phillies, but their decision to keep Adam Eaton off the postseason roster ruins their chances, as far as I'm concerned...
Anyway, why Cleveland? Two dominant starters, a terrific high-K bullpen (even if they do have Joe Borowski closing), an offense that can put up crooked numbers, and, as Will Carroll points out, they are the only healthy team left standing in the A.L.
They'll likely have to beat the two best teams in baseball -- New York and Boston -- to even get to the World Series, but I think the matchups end up working for them, and I think Sabathia and Carmona are good enough to get them there.