BP's PECOTA projections were updated this morning, to take into account expected fielding performances.
As a result, the Ranger pitching staff is looking a lot better. The weighted mean ERA projections for the top 4 Ranger starters:
Kevin Millwood -- 4.31
Vicente Padilla -- 4.31
Brandon McCarthy -- 4.67
Robinson Tejeda -- 4.65
If the Rangers get at least 30 starts from each of those 4 pitchers, and they post those sorts of ERAs, the Rangers will be in the playoffs.
This seems remarkably optimistic to me, though. I'm going to send an email out to Nate Silver, the PECOTA-master, to ask about this.