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FJM, BBTN, and walk year performance

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I was perusing Fire Joe Morgan this morning, and there are several amusing posts from last night addressing some silliness from John Kruk, Orestes Destrade, and others (and as usual, be warned that there is some blue language in some of the posts, so don't click the link if that is going to bother you).

One of the more amusing predictions was from Destrade, who predicted that Ichiro would hit .400, in part because he's in his contract year.

The FJM guys helpfully link this paper, which analyzes the performances of veterans in their walk years, and concludes that there is no significant difference in the way vets perform in their walk year, and the way they perform in other years.

Just something to keep in mind, the next time you hear some talking head say that so-and-so is bound to have a big year because he's playing for a contract...