## Giants vs Rangers, World Series Game #3 - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Rangers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Friday at 8:45 AM PST)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore SF TEX J.Sanchez vs C.Lewis TEX 59.51% 56.15% 67%

Notes: There is just over a 3% separation between Vegas and my Simulator for Saturday's Game #3. The general public is probably feeling pretty confident that the Rangers will bounce back at home and take the next game. I think AccuScore has been taken over by a group of Chinese hackers. Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 8.5
2. J.Sanchez total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Rangers total bases minus Giants total bases: 1.5
4. C.Lewis total batters faced: 26.5
5. Rangers number of bullpen pitchers used: 2.5