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Scott Lucas on Michael Young's Chances of Getting 3000 Hits

We talked a little while back, in some of the comments, about Michael Young's chances of getting into the Hall of Fame, which, in my opinion, are governed almost entirely by whether or not Young reaches 3000 hits.  If Young gets 3000 hits, he's in.  If he doesn't, I don't think there's anything else he has a remote possibility of accomplishes the rest of his career that would get him in.

In any case, it got me thinking about whether Young could reach 3000 hits or not, and what the likelihood is of him doing so.  I thought it would be an interesting post to do, looked at Bill James' Favorite Toy projection, and then promptly forgot about it.

Fortunately, Scott Lucas has done a post that drills down into the data, compares Young to the 3000 hit club members through age 32, and looks at what hitters similar to Young have done after age 32.

It is a really interesting piece, and like me, Scott concludes that the Favorite Toy projection (he has it at 18%) is probably too high for Young.  I encourage everyone to check it out.